rin
Orin's live record · updated just now

Every call, graded in public.

Each published call is scored against SPY 30 days later and stamped onto this board — winners, losers, and holds alike. Nothing is quietly dropped.

54.4%directional calls right (30d)171 bullish/bearish calls scored
56.0%a coin flip would have scoredsame dates, same bull/bear mix, picked at random
-1.6%our edge over randombelow random — we publish it either way
+0.4%avg vs SPY per directional callsign-adjusted: bearish wins when the stock lags
506calls graded in total506 verdicts · 0 signals

Every graded call on this board is a verdict, not a signal. Detector signals are published and enrolled, but none has reached its 30-day mark yet — so nothing here reflects the signal feed’s accuracy.

How the grading works

A bullish call is right when its stock beats SPY over the next 30 days; a bearish call is right when its stock lags SPY. Holds are graded and shown but never counted as wins — a hold is not a buy. Entries are immutable once scored: this is a record, not a moving target. Orin publishes general research, not investment advice.

Why we show what a coin flip would have scored. A win rate on its own is easy to misread. Most stocks beat SPY in a rising market, so picking names at random already scores well above 50% — and a number that looks like skill can be nothing but the market going up. The “coin flip” figure is measured on the same dates, over the same universe, with the same mix of bullish and bearish calls. The only number that reflects judgement is the gap between the two, and we publish that gap even when it is negative.

This record is early: 171 directional calls over roughly two months, in one market environment. That is far too little to conclude anything about skill in either direction, and it will stay that way for a while. Nothing here is backtested — every entry was published before its outcome was known.

The latest receipts

NameCallPublishedvs SPY (30d)Grade
NVDANVIDIA CorporationHoldJun 3-8.6%hold · graded
AAgilent Technologies, Inc.HoldJun 3-4.6%hold · graded
ABBVAbbVie Inc.BullishJun 3+17.7%right
COINCoinbase Global, Inc.BearishMay 27-11.4%right
KMIKinder Morgan, Inc.HoldMay 27+5.9%hold · graded
CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc.BullishMay 27-6.3%wrong
IEXIDEX CorporationHoldMay 27+10.2%hold · graded
ZBHZimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.HoldMay 26+9.9%hold · graded
YUMYum! Brands, Inc.HoldMay 26+0.3%hold · graded
XYZBlock, Inc.HoldMay 26+9.3%hold · graded
WELLWelltower Inc.HoldMay 26+4.7%hold · graded
VRTVertiv Holdings CoHoldMay 26+2.7%hold · graded
VVisa Inc.HoldMay 26+3.4%hold · graded
VLTOVeralto CorporationHoldMay 26+4.4%hold · graded
WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies CorporationHoldMay 26+10.2%hold · graded
VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc.HoldMay 26+5.3%hold · graded
SRESempraHoldMay 26+4.2%hold · graded
STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.HoldMay 26+2.4%hold · graded
SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.HoldMay 26-12.4%hold · graded
SHWThe Sherwin-Williams CompanyHoldMay 26+11.1%hold · graded
SJMThe J. M. Smucker CompanyHoldMay 26+12.1%hold · graded
RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc.BullishMay 26+1.1%right
ROPRoper Technologies, Inc.BullishMay 26+6.0%right
SBACSBA Communications CorporationHoldMay 26-8.1%hold · graded
SCHWThe Charles Schwab CorporationHoldMay 26+2.2%hold · graded
SBUXStarbucks CorporationHoldMay 26+3.9%hold · graded
SPGIS&P Global Inc.HoldMay 26-7.2%hold · graded
VMCVulcan Materials CompanyHoldMay 26+18.5%hold · graded
SLBSLB N.V.HoldMay 26-16.0%hold · graded
SOThe Southern CompanyHoldMay 26+4.1%hold · graded