Apple Inc. AAPL
Apple's FY2025 results (ended 2025-09-27) show genuine operational improvement—revenue grew 6.4% to $416.2B, EPS jumped 22.7% to $7.46, and operating margin expanded to 32.0%—but the stock at $305.59 trades at 34.9x trailing P/E, a 35.3% premium to the peer median of 25.8x, and EV/EBITDA 48.9% above peers, leaving little room for error. Technicals have deteriorated with the price below its 50-day MA ($309.08), a bearish MACD histogram of -2.29, and RSI at 43.4, while insiders remain net sellers at -$349M over 24 months.
Smart money turned positive (score 2.89 as of Q2 2026) and the 200-day MA at $280.67 provides a floor, but the combination of stretched valuation, weakening near-term momentum, and a fresh German regulatory overhang on app data consent keeps the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 34.9x P/E and 26.9x EV/EBITDA—35% and 49% above peer medians respectively—any growth disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating with limited margin of safety.
- Regulatory pressure. Germany's competition authority forced Apple to change app data consent rules (announced 2026-08-17), which could constrain advertising-related services revenue and set a precedent for broader EU action.
- Insider selling persistence. Insiders have net sold 894,613 shares worth $349M over 24 months, with the most recent sale on 2026-08-11 by SVP Newstead at $307.75, signaling limited internal confidence at these levels.
- Technical breakdown. Stock is below its 50-day MA ($309.08) with a deeply negative MACD histogram (-2.29); a break below the 200-day MA ($280.67) could accelerate selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-09-27; derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-17 · insider summary and transactions. Orin's read on AAPL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AAPL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $277.5B | 5.9% of fund |
| State Street | $178.0B | 5.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $107.2B | 5.7% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $96.7B | 4.4% of fund |
| Fmr | $94.1B | 4.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $70.2B | 3.7% of fund |
256 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 174 Form 4 filings, net −$356.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 17 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AAPL
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 38.5× | 27.8× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.6× | 21.6× | — |
| P/S | 10.60× | 7.03× | — |
| P/B | 46.1× | 48.1× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.73σ from its own mean).
20.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $98.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$342
$245 – $400 · +2% against today's price
- 71 buy or overweight
- 32 hold
- 9 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPLApple Inc. | $4.95T | 38.5× | 29.6× | 48.7% | 27.6% | 137% |
| GOOGLAlphabet Inc. | $4.09T | 16.6× | 12.7× | 60.9% | 54.8% | 51% |
| METAMeta Platforms, Inc. | $1.90T | 27.7× | 18.6× | 81.7% | 29.8% | 30% |
| MSFTMicrosoft Corporation | $3.72T | 27.8× | 18.4× | 67.9% | 40.3% | 33% |
| NVDANVIDIA Corporation | $5.47T | 28.4× | 23.5× | 74.7% | 63.7% | 110% |
| NXTNextpower Inc. | $12B | 20.6× | 15.0× | 33.4% | 16.4% | 26% |
| TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | $2.32T | 29.0× | 19.2× | 64.2% | 50.4% | 39% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 38.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $152 | $291.94 · −48% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $146 | $291.94 · −50% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.