Apple Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Apple's fundamental momentum remains strong, with Q3 FY2026 revenue of $109.4B growing 16.4% year-over-year and EPS of $2.03 beating estimates by 6.9%, extending a three-quarter streak of roughly 16% revenue growth that far exceeds FY2025's 6.4% annual pace.
However, the stock trades at 38.4x trailing P/E—a 38.4% premium to the peer median of 27.8x—and EV/EBITDA 63.6% above peers, which leaves little room for error. A Nikkei Asia report on 9 Oct that Apple asked suppliers to cut iPhone 18 Pro component orders by at least 15% for October raises fresh demand concerns, and insiders remain persistent net sellers with zero acquisitions over 24 months and -$263M in net dispositions. The combination of premium valuation, emerging demand uncertainty, and insider selling offsets the strong operational performance, keeping risk/reward balanced.
What could go wrong
- iPhone 18 Pro demand softness. Nikkei Asia reported on 9 Oct that Apple instructed suppliers to cut iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max component orders by at least 15% for October, which could signal weaker-than-expected demand for the flagship product.
- Valuation premium. At $336.64, AAPL trades at 38.4x P/E versus a peer median of 27.8x and EV/EBITDA of 29.6x versus 18.1x peer median, meaning any growth disappointment could trigger multiple compression.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders have net sold 970,364 shares for -$263M with zero acquisitions; recent October 2026 sales by CEO Ternus, Executive Chair Cook, and SVPs continue the pattern.
- Smart money cooling. Smart money score declined from 0.662 as of 31 Mar to 0.355 as of 30 Jun, with fund count dropping from 77 to 76.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 FY26 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison, 9 Oct · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on AAPL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 29.1% over twelve months, from $268.81 on 27 Oct 2025 to $347.10 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $348.22 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 0.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 261.8M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All AAPL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $336.5B | 5.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $277.5B | 5.9% |
| State Street | $178.0B | 5.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $107.2B | 5.7% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $96.7B | 4.4% |
| FMR | $94.1B | 4.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $70.2B | 3.7% |
| Berkshire Hathaway | $66.0B | 22.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $64.5B | 3.6% |
| Norges Bank | $55.2B | 5.5% |
258 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 229 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$265.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 24 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AAPL
Orin answers questions about AAPL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 39.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 27.8×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 39.7×above usual | 27.8× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 10.9×above usual | 7.03× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.2×above usual | 21.6× | — |
| P/B | 47.3×near usual | 48.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $340 (from $245 to $400) — 2% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$340
$245 – $400 · −2% against the last close
- 20 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 39.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPLApple Inc. | $5.07T | 39.7× | 30.2× | 48.7% | 27.6% | 137% |
| GOOGLAlphabet Inc. | $3.90T | 15.7× | 12.1× | 60.9% | 54.8% | 51% |
| METAMeta Platforms, Inc. | $1.58T | 20.9× | 15.7× | 81.0% | 31.1% | 30% |
| MSFTMicrosoft Corporation | $3.95T | 29.5× | 19.1× | 67.9% | 40.3% | 33% |
| NVDANVIDIA Corporation | $5.25T | 27.4× | 22.5× | 74.7% | 63.7% | 110% |
| NXTNextpower Inc. | $12B | 20.0× | 14.3× | 33.4% | 16.4% | 26% |
| TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | $2.27T | 24.4× | 16.3× | 65.8% | 51.5% | 41% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 39.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now39.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $138 a share — 60% below the $345.36 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $138 | 60% below $345.36 |
| Levered | $132 | 62% below $345.36 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.