Adobe Inc. ADBE
Adobe trades at 16.3x trailing earnings and 11.6x EV/EBITDA—roughly 58–65% below software-infrastructure peer medians—despite FY2025 (ended November 2025) delivering 10.5% revenue growth to $23.77B, 35.1% EPS growth to $16.70, and $9.85B in free cash flow at a 41.5% FCF margin, with quarterly revenue growth accelerating to 12.7% YoY in Q2 FY2026. However, the stock is down 32% year-to-date to $240.69, trading below both its 50-day ($257.13) and 200-day ($263.74) moving averages with a deeply negative MACD histogram of -3.64, while CEO Shantanu Narayen sold $31.3 million in shares representing 34% of his equity stake and smart money positioning has weakened to 0.0152 as of June 2026 from 0.0949 in September 2025.
The fundamental value case is compelling but the technical breakdown, persistent insider selling (-$57.7M net over 24 months), and fading institutional interest warrant a hold until a clear catalyst emerges.
What could go wrong
- AI competitive pressure. Generative AI tools from well-funded competitors risk commoditizing Creative Cloud's creative-professional moat, which the 32% YTD decline may be discounting.
- Insider selling signal. CEO sold 34% of his equity stake ($31.3M); 24-month insider net value is -$57.7M across 365 dispositions versus 242 acquisitions.
- Technical deterioration. Stock at $240.69 is below both MA50 ($257.13) and MA200 ($263.74); MACD line at -5.20 with histogram -3.64 and RSI at 39.2 confirm bearish momentum.
- Institutional outflows. Smart money score fell to 0.0152 as of June 2026 from 0.0949 in September 2025; multiple funds including Engineers Gate (-81.5%) and NewEdge (-26.7%) reduced stakes.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025 and derived_metrics FY2025 · quarterly_results Q2 FY2026 · technicals as of 2026-09-23 and news 2026-09-22. Orin's read on ADBE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ADBE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $3.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
132 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 634 Form 4 filings, net −$89.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 13 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ADBE
Orin answers questions about ADBE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.4× | 41.5× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6× | 28.8× | — |
| P/S | 3.68× | 10.73× | — |
| P/B | 8.1× | 16.4× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.94σ from its own mean).
-2.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $9.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$270
$190 – $379 · +11% against today's price
- 30 buy or overweight
- 28 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBEAdobe Inc. | $96B | 13.4× | 9.6× | 89.1% | 28.0% | 63% |
| ACNAccenture plc | $112B | 14.5× | 8.7× | 32.0% | 10.7% | 25% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $188B | 45.5× | 29.8× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $267B | — | — | 75.2% | 1.1% | 1% |
| DELLDell Technologies Inc. | $365B | 31.4× | 21.1× | 19.8% | 7.5% | -575% |
| FTNTFortinet, Inc. | $131B | 62.5× | 44.5× | 80.4% | 28.2% | 188% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $245B | 51.0× | 43.4× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc. | $321B | — | — | 70.4% | 2.7% | 2% |
| SNPSSynopsys, Inc. | $79B | 71.7× | 24.4× | 72.4% | 11.4% | 4% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $249B | 41.2× | 28.5× | 58.3% | 31.1% | 36% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 70.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $353 | $235.08 · +50% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $457 | $235.08 · +94% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.