The AES Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
AES remains a hold as the pending $33 billion BlackRock/GIP acquisition creates a binary regulatory outcome — Senator Warren and fellow lawmakers urged FERC on September 29, 2026 to reject the deal, citing risks to electricity rates and data-center cross-subsidization.
At $14.96 as of October 19, 2026, the stock trades at a PE of 5.68 versus the peer median of 20.85, a discount that reflects deal uncertainty and a leveraged balance sheet with $30.3B in total debt against $6.9B in equity rather than a hidden bargain. FY2025 EPS fell to $1.26 from $2.36 with negative free cash flow of $1.62B, but Q2 2026 revenue rose 19.9% YoY and Q1 2026 rose 8.7%, showing operational improvement that supports the stock if the deal proceeds but does not offset the downside if it breaks.
What could go wrong
- Regulatory rejection. Senator Warren and fellow lawmakers have formally urged FERC to reject the $33B BlackRock acquisition; a blocked deal would remove any premium and leave AES standalone with weak fundamentals.
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt of $30.3B against stockholders' equity of $6.9B as of FY2025, with negative free cash flow of $1.62B, limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk.
- Earnings deterioration. FY2025 EPS declined to $1.26 from $2.36 in FY2024, a 46.6% drop; if the deal breaks, standalone earnings power may not support the current valuation.
- Dividend sustainability. AES declared a $0.18 quarterly dividend on October 9, 2026, but with negative free cash flow, the payout may face pressure if operational improvement stalls.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: news, 29 Sep · technicals, 19 Oct · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on AES; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 3.7% over twelve months, from $14.49 on 27 Oct 2025 to $15.03 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $17.28 on 27 Feb 2026; the last close is 13.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 80.2M, on 2 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AES filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $722.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $681.8M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $628.8M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $518.6M | 0.0% |
| Balyasny Asset Management | $507.7M | 0.6% |
| Geode Capital Management | $367.8M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management | $312.3M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $307.8M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $271.9M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $214.7M | 0.0% |
86 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 83 Form 4 filings. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AES
Orin answers questions about AES from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 6.0× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 6.0× | — | 18.5× |
| P/S | 0.78×below usual | 1.02× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.2×below usual | 15.1× | — |
| P/B | 1.9× | — | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 5.4× to 52.0× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 1.5× to 7.9× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $18.75 (from $7 to $32) — 25% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$18.75
$7 – $32 · +25% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 6.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AESThe AES Corporation | $11B | 6.0× | 11.2× | 21.3% | 13.5% | 33% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | $71B | 22.4× | 14.4× | 49.0% | 13.9% | 10% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc. | $57B | 22.6× | 14.5× | 49.3% | 13.9% | 9% |
| EIXEdison International | $22B | 6.0× | 8.4× | 39.9% | 19.8% | 22% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $52B | 27.4× | 14.5× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| EXCExelon Corporation | $46B | 16.3× | 10.7× | 24.5% | 11.0% | 10% |
| IDAIDACORP, Inc. | $8B | 22.8× | 14.7× | 21.7% | 18.8% | 9% |
| NEENextEra Energy, Inc. | $173B | 14.8× | 16.3× | 62.4% | 39.9% | 20% |
| OGEOGE Energy Corp. | $10B | 21.4× | 11.1× | 53.6% | 14.6% | 11% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $36B | 21.4× | 14.4× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $49B | 21.3× | 13.3× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 6.0× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now6.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.