The AES Corporation AES
AES remains a hold as the pending $33.4B take-private by BlackRock's GIP and EQT-led consortium has cleared stockholder approval but still faces FERC regulatory review and shareholder complaints. At $14.73, the deal spread offers minimal upside for new capital while the downside if the deal breaks is severe — FY2025 EPS collapsed to $1.26 from $2.36, free cash flow is negative $1.62B, and total debt of $30.3B dwarfs equity of $6.9B.
The stock trades at a PE of 5.60 versus the peer median of 19.97, but this roughly 72% discount reflects the deal overhang and deteriorating fundamentals rather than an overlooked bargain. Existing holders should ride the deal to close; new positions are not justified by the risk/reward.
What could go wrong
- Deal Break. If FERC blocks or conditions the $33.4B acquisition, the stock would likely re-rate sharply lower given FY2025 EPS of $1.26, negative free cash flow of $1.62B, and total debt of $30.3B against equity of $6.9B.
- Regulatory Delays. PESP and consumer advocacy groups have petitioned FERC (Docket EC26-99) to block the deal or force BlackRock to divest utility holdings, which could prolong the timeline indefinitely.
- Earnings Deterioration. FY2025 net income fell 43.7% YoY to $949M with EPS down to $1.26 from $2.36, and revenue declined 0.37% — if the deal stalls, standalone fundamentals provide no support at current levels.
- Shareholder Litigation. Shareholders have filed complaints against the $33.4B sale, adding legal uncertainty that could delay or jeopardize the transaction.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: PRNewsWire (2026-06-26) · Reuters (2026-06-12); Forbes (2026-08-02) · FMP FY2025 annual; derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP FY2025 annual. Orin's read on AES; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AES filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $681.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $628.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $518.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Balyasny Asset Management L.P | $507.7M | 0.6% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $367.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Millennium Management | $312.3M | 0.1% of fund |
84 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 83 Form 4 filings, net −$5.7M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AES
Orin answers questions about AES from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 5.6× | — | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1× | 15.1× | — |
| P/S | 0.81× | 1.02× | — |
| P/B | 2.1× | 5.2× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.20σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$19
$7 – $32 · +26% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AESThe AES Corporation | $11B | 5.6× | 9.1× | 20.3% | 14.6% | 38% |
| OGEOGE Energy Corp. | $9B | 19.3× | 11.1× | 53.6% | 14.6% | 10% |
| PNWPinnacle West Capital Corporation | $11B | 17.1× | 10.3× | 55.5% | 11.5% | 9% |
| WTRGEssential Utilities, Inc. | $11B | 20.3× | 14.6× | 53.5% | 21.6% | 8% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 70.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-63 | $14.67 · −530% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-13 | $14.67 · −191% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.