American International Group, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
AIG's FY2025 profitability recovery — net income of $3.096B and EPS of $5.43 versus FY2024's net loss of $1.404B — alongside consistent EPS beats (most recent: $2.00 actual versus $1.92 estimate as of the quarter ended 6 Aug) and Q2 2026 revenue turning slightly positive at $7.085B, supports a constructive fundamental view.
However, the stock has rallied to $80.74 as of 16 Oct, pushing RSI to 71.68 (overbought) and trading at a 45.7% P/E premium to the peer median (14.65x versus 10.06x), which limits near-term upside even as the EV/EBITDA discount to peers (-18.0%, at 6.70x versus 8.18x) and stabilizing quarterly results argue against selling. With Q3 2026 results due November 3, 2026 and property pricing softening, the risk/reward is balanced; hold pending evidence that revenue growth and underwriting quality can be sustained into a softer pricing environment.
What could go wrong
- Overbought technicals. RSI at 71.68 as of 16 Oct with the stock at $80.74 above both the 50-day ($76.14) and 200-day ($76.66) moving averages increases the probability of a near-term pullback.
- Valuation premium. AIG trades at a 45.7% P/E premium to the peer median (14.65x versus 10.06x), leaving little room for execution missteps despite the EV/EBITDA discount of -18.0%.
- Softening property pricing. AIG is trimming property exposure as pricing softens per September 2026 news coverage, which could pressure premium growth and underwriting margins in coming quarters.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders have net sold 379,106 shares for a net value of approximately $30.0M, with no cluster buying detected.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates, 6 Aug · Q2 2026 results · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on AIG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 0.3% over twelve months, from $79.31 on 27 Oct 2025 to $79.58 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $86.59 on 23 Dec 2025; the last close is 8.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 15.3M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All AIG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $2.3B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| Harris Associates | $1.5B | 2.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Franklin Resources | $898.3M | 0.2% |
99 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 234 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$30.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AIG
Orin answers questions about AIG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 14.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 9.2×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.4×above usual | 9.2× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 1.58×below usual | 1.74× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6×below usual | 7.3× | — |
| P/B | 1.0×below usual | 1.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $86.25 (from $80 to $98) — 8% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$86.25
$80 – $98 · +8% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 14.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 10.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIGAmerican International Group, Inc. | $42B | 14.4× | 6.6× | n/a | 11.1% | 7% |
| ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $34B | 8.1× | 8.2× | n/a | 23.2% | 18% |
| CBChubb Limited | $137B | 12.4× | 13.1× | n/a | 18.0% | 15% |
| HIGThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36B | 8.0× | 11.4× | n/a | 15.9% | 24% |
| TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $81B | 10.2× | 7.8× | n/a | 17.0% | 26% |
| WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $27B | 15.2× | 11.1× | n/a | 10.4% | 19% |
- AIG, ACGL, CB, HIG, TRV, WRB: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- WRB: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 14.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now14.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.