American International Group, Inc. AIG
AIG's FY2025 marked a profitability recovery with EPS of $5.43 and net income of $3.096B after FY2024's net loss of $1.404B, and Q2 2026 results showed 10% adjusted EPS growth with 9% net written premium growth per management. However, revenue continues to decline (-1.82% YoY in FY2025 to $26.77B), the stock trades at a 28.6% P/E premium to the peer median (13.86x vs 10.78x), and Executive Chair Peter Zaffino sold 200,000 shares at $76.47 on August 12, 2026.
With the stock below both its 50-day ($77.70) and 200-day ($77.40) moving averages and MACD bearish (histogram -0.13), but EV/EBITDA at a 25.6% discount to peers, the risk/reward remains balanced; hold pending evidence of sustained revenue stabilization.
What could go wrong
- Persistent pricing pressure. Management noted competitive pricing pressure in North American property insurance during Q2 2026 earnings, which could compress underwriting margins going forward.
- Insider selling. Executive Chair Peter Zaffino sold 200,000 shares at $76.47 on August 12, 2026, and additional shares on August 13, 2026; 24-month net insider value is -$8.1M.
- Revenue erosion. Revenue has declined for five consecutive years on a reported basis, with FY2025 revenue of $26.77B down -1.82% YoY, raising questions about organic growth sustainability.
- Weak technicals. Stock at $76.38 sits below both the 50-day MA ($77.70) and 200-day MA ($77.40) with RSI at 44.81 and bearish MACD histogram, suggesting near-term downside risk.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual · FMP FY2024 annual · FMP FY2025 annual; derived_metrics revenue_growth_yoy · Seeking Alpha news article, 2026-08-10. Orin's read on AIG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AIG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $2.3B | 0.4% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Harris Associates L P | $1.5B | 2.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
96 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 216 Form 4 filings, net −$8.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AIG
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.6× | — | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3× | 7.3× | — |
| P/S | 1.49× | 1.64× | — |
| P/B | 1.0× | 1.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.72σ from its own mean).
0.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$87
$80 – $98 · +18% against today's price
- 15 buy or overweight
- 25 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIGAmerican International Group, Inc. | $40B | 13.6× | 6.3× | 38.1% | 11.1% | 7% |
| ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $33B | 7.3× | 6.5× | 46.2% | 24.4% | 20% |
| AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc. | $44B | 11.5× | 7.3× | 50.2% | 19.9% | 62% |
| HIGThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $34B | 8.1× | 7.9× | 43.9% | 15.0% | 23% |
| METMetLife, Inc. | $63B | 18.5× | 10.1× | 25.6% | 4.6% | 13% |
| PRUPrudential Financial, Inc. | $41B | 10.7× | 8.8× | 30.8% | 5.9% | 12% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 27.5% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $371 | $75.22 · +393% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $137 | $75.22 · +82% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.