Allegion plc
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Allegion's fundamentals are solid and accelerating — FY2025 revenue of $4.07B grew 7.8% YoY with operating margin expanding to 21.1% and FCF of $685.7M, while Q2 2026 revenue jumped 12.7% YoY to $1.15B and EPS beat estimates at $2.40 vs $2.22.
However, at a P/E of 20.44 the stock is fully valued, Q3 2026 results arrive October 22 — an imminent catalyst — and the earnings surprise track record is mixed with Q1 2026 missing by 5.3%. Net insider selling of 27,364 shares over 24 months and a smart money score of just 0.00 as of Q2 2026 temper enthusiasm despite constructive technicals with the stock above its 200-day MA of $149.88.
What could go wrong
- Imminent earnings catalyst. Q3 2026 results release on October 22; mixed earnings surprise history includes a Q1 2026 miss of -5.3% and Q4 2025 miss of -3.5%, adding binary risk around the current hold.
- Full valuation. P/E of 20.44 and EV/EBITDA of 14.51 reflect a premium to the limited peer set (ADT at 8.92 P/E), leaving limited margin of safety if growth disappoints.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider disposition of 27,364 shares worth $4.33M over 24 months, including CEO Stone selling 11,292 shares at $156.73 on August 1, 2026.
- Industry cost headwinds. Zacks notes rising costs and higher labor expenses weighing on the Security and Safety Services industry, which could pressure Allegion's expanding margins.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results and earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on ALLE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 5.6% over twelve months, from $170.94 on 27 Oct 2025 to $180.55 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. That is its highest close in that time.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.5M, on 31 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ALLE filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 22 Oct | — | on file |
| 8-K | 22 Oct | — | on file |
| 8-K | 8 Sep | — | on file |
| 13G | 7 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 3 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 23 Jul | Allegion plc reported net revenues of $1,151.5 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 12.7% year-over-year. | read |
| 8-K | 23 Jul | Allegion plc announced its second quarter 2026 results on July 23, 2026. | read |
| 8-K | 9 Jun | Allegion plc shareholders elected all eight director nominees and approved the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2026. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $956.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $789.8M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $695.9M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $610.3M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $405.6M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $322.1M | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $317.6M | 0.1% |
| Brown Advisory | $247.7M | 0.4% |
| Morgan Stanley | $224.5M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $188.6M | 0.0% |
80 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 138 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$6.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ALLE
Orin answers questions about ALLE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 20.6×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.4×above usual | 20.6× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 3.50×above usual | 3.05× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.6×near usual | 15.6× | — |
| P/B | 7.0×below usual | 8.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $182 (from $170 to $196) — 1% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$182
$170 – $196 · +1% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.4× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (ADT 8.9×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLEAllegion plc | $15B | 22.4× | 15.6× | 45.1% | 15.7% | 33% |
| ADTADT Inc. | $5B | 8.9× | 4.7× | 51.4% | 12.0% | 17% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $208 a share — 16% above the $179.16 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $208 | 16% above $179.16 |
| Levered | $195 | 9% above $179.16 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.