Allegion plc ALLE
Allegion is a buy at $157.48 following a post-earnings pullback that cooled RSI to a neutral 47.7, with shares trading at a P/E of 20.56 — an 8.4% discount to the peer median of 22.45 — despite FY2025 revenue of $4.07B (7.8% YoY growth), operating margins expanding to 21.13%, and FCF of $685.7M. Q2 2026 results beat estimates (EPS $2.40 vs $2.22) with revenue up approximately 13% YoY and raised full-year guidance, while the August 2026 Schlage XE360 launch with RealSync technology reinforces the electronic access growth runway.
The stock remains above both its 50-day ($150.50) and 200-day ($151.33) moving averages, and smart money positioning has improved from -0.0154 as of the quarter ended 2025-12-31 to -0.0024 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
What could go wrong
- Insider selling. Recent transactions show the CEO sold 11,292 shares on 2026-08-01, the CTO sold 1,000 shares on 2026-08-06, and the International President sold 6,417 shares on 2026-07-27 — though net insider activity over 24 months remains positive at +110,776 shares.
- P/S premium to peers. At 3.12x sales, ALLE trades at a 36.1% premium to the peer median P/S of 2.29, limiting downside protection if revenue growth disappoints.
- Bearish MACD crossover. MACD histogram is negative at -1.65 with the signal line above the MACD line, suggesting near-term momentum weakness despite the stock holding above its moving averages.
- Construction cycle sensitivity. Demand for Allegion's commercial and residential security products is tied to nonresidential and residential construction cycles; any slowdown in construction spending could pressure the growth trajectory.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative. Orin's read on ALLE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ALLE filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G | 7 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 3 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 23 Jul | Allegion plc reported net revenues of $1,151.5 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 12.7% year-over-year. | read |
| 8-K | 23 Jul | Allegion plc announced its second quarter 2026 results on July 23, 2026. | read |
| 8-K | 9 Jun | Allegion plc shareholders elected all eight director nominees and approved the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal year 2026. | read |
| 13G/A | 15 May | — | on file |
| 13G | 28 Apr | — | on file |
| 13G | 28 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $789.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $695.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $610.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $405.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $322.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Massachusetts Financial Services /Ma/ | $317.6M | 0.1% of fund |
78 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 134 Form 4 filings, net $1.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ALLE
Orin answers questions about ALLE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.9× | 20.6× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.7× | 15.8× | — |
| P/S | 3.02× | 3.05× | — |
| P/B | 6.2× | 8.4× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.67σ from its own mean).
6.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$164
$142 – $180 · +6% against today's price
- 8 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLEAllegion plc | $13B | 19.9× | 14.7× | 44.8% | 15.4% | 32% |
| AVYAvery Dennison Corporation | $13B | 18.5× | 12.0× | 29.0% | 7.6% | 31% |
| CSLCarlisle Companies Incorporated | $13B | 17.9× | 11.9× | 35.3% | 14.2% | 41% |
| GGGGraco Inc. | $12B | 23.9× | 16.4× | 52.6% | 23.5% | 20% |
| ITTITT Inc. | $19B | 41.8× | 25.0× | 34.6% | 8.9% | 10% |
| TXTTextron Inc. | $13B | 14.3× | 9.1× | 16.5% | 6.1% | 12% |
| WSOWatsco, Inc. | $13B | 27.7× | 18.1× | 27.9% | 6.5% | 17% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 6.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.