Amgen Inc. AMGN
Amgen's FY2025 results show genuine fundamental improvement—revenue grew 9.9% to $36.7B, EPS nearly doubled to $14.23 from $7.56, and operating margin recovered to 29.1%—but the stock has run too far too fast, closing at $442.36 with an RSI of 79.8 and sitting roughly 18% above its 50-day moving average of $375. A DCF analysis published August 17 pegs intrinsic value at $296 versus the then-prevailing price of $415, and insiders have been net sellers by $84.2M over 24 months.
With $54.6B of debt against just $8.7B of equity and free cash flow down 22% to $8.1B as capex surged to $1.86B, the risk/reward at these elevated, overbought levels is not compelling despite the improving operating story.
What could go wrong
- Extreme technical overbought condition. RSI at 79.8 as of 2026-08-19 and the stock trading ~18% above its 50-day MA of $375 leaves it vulnerable to a sharp mean-reversion pullback.
- Leverage and FCF deterioration. Total debt of $54.6B against equity of only $8.7B at FY2025 end, combined with FCF falling 22% to $8.1B as capex jumped to $1.86B, constrains financial flexibility.
- Valuation premium on PS basis. PS ratio of 6.26 is 34% above the peer median of 4.67, and a published DCF estimates intrinsic value at $296 versus the current price of $442.36.
- Insider net selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold $84.2M in value across 193 transactions, with recent activity dominated by option exercises followed by same-day stock sales.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · Technicals as of 2026-08-19 · GuruFocus news article, 2026-08-17 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 vs FY2024. Orin's read on AMGN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AMGN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $12.8B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $11.1B | 0.3% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $10.5B | 1.2% of fund |
| Invesco | $5.9B | 0.5% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $5.7B | 0.3% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $5.4B | 0.7% of fund |
152 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 193 Form 4 filings, net −$84.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AMGN
Orin answers questions about AMGN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.0× | 22.8× | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.9× | 14.0× | — |
| P/S | 5.75× | 4.94× | — |
| P/B | 18.8× | 24.0× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.07σ from its own mean).
11.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $8.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$395
$230 – $460 · −3% against today's price
- 22 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | $219B | 25.0× | 15.9× | 72.7% | 22.9% | 89% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | $125B | 13.5× | 9.6× | 70.2% | 18.9% | 47% |
| BSXBoston Scientific Corporation | $66B | 18.0× | 13.8× | 71.2% | 17.5% | 15% |
| DHRDanaher Corporation | $156B | 39.2× | 24.9× | 58.5% | 15.9% | 8% |
| GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. | $188B | — | 331.4× | 79.6% | -10.6% | -16% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $366B | 117.5× | 29.8× | 75.4% | 4.8% | 7% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $161B | 37.2× | 17.6× | 71.3% | 6.8% | 5% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 32.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $1031 | $343.33 · +200% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $867 | $343.33 · +153% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.