Amgen Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Amgen's operating recovery is accelerating — FY2025 EPS nearly doubled to $14.23 on 9.9% revenue growth to $36.7B with gross margin recovering to 70.8%, and the company has beaten EPS estimates for eight straight quarters including a 11.9% surprise in the latest period.
Valuation remains compelling at 26.2x P/E and 15.5x EV/EBITDA, roughly 35% below peer medians, while today's positive Phase 3 Tezspire data showing 69% remission in eosinophilic esophagitis adds near-term pipeline optionality. The $54.6B debt load against $8.7B equity and FCF declining to $8.1B as capex nearly doubled to $1.86B are real constraints, but improving smart money flows (score rising to 0.11 as of Q2 2026 from 0.00 a year prior) and technical momentum above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages support accumulation at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Leverage overhang. Total debt of $54.6B against stockholders' equity of just $8.7B limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk if rates stay elevated.
- FCF compression. Free cash flow fell to $8.1B in FY2025 from $10.4B in FY2024 as capex nearly doubled to $1.86B, squeezing the FCF margin to 22.1% from 31.1%.
- Insider selling. Over the past 24 months insiders net sold 45,776 shares worth $16.7M with zero open-market acquisitions, suggesting limited insider conviction at current prices.
- Technical stretch. RSI at 63.4 with the stock at $438.94 above both the 50-day MA ($415.73) and 200-day MA ($369.94) leaves room for a pullback after the recent run.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · news, 20 Oct. Orin's read on AMGN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 53.9% over twelve months, from $291.16 on 27 Oct 2025 to $447.95 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. That is its highest close in that time.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 13.5M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AMGN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $17.9B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $12.8B | 0.3% |
| State Street | $11.1B | 0.3% |
| Capital World Investors | $10.5B | 1.2% |
| Invesco | $5.9B | 0.5% |
| Geode Capital Management | $5.7B | 0.3% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $5.4B | 0.7% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.4B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $4.9B | 0.3% |
| Wells Fargo | $2.6B | 0.4% |
155 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 193 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$16.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AMGN
Orin answers questions about AMGN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 27.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 22.8×); the typical Healthcare company on the NASDAQ is at 20.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.6×above usual | 22.8× | 20.8× |
| P/S | 6.35×above usual | 4.94× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.2×above usual | 14.0× | — |
| P/B | 20.7×below usual | 24.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $404 (from $230 to $500) — 10% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$404
$230 – $500 · −10% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 27.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 41.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | $242B | 27.6× | 16.2× | 72.7% | 22.9% | 89% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | $506B | 80.7× | 26.9× | 71.5% | 9.8% | n/m |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | $126B | 13.6× | 9.5× | 70.2% | 18.9% | 47% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | $647B | 40.7× | 21.9× | 68.8% | 16.2% | 20% |
| LLYEli Lilly and Company | $1.21T | 42.9× | 28.9× | 83.4% | 33.5% | 93% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $350B | 113× | 28.5× | 75.4% | 4.8% | 7% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $170B | 39.4× | 17.2× | 73.2% | 6.8% | 5% |
- ABBV: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 27.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now27.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 20.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $867 a share — 94% above the $447.81 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $867 | 94% above $447.81 |
| Levered | $718 | 60% above $447.81 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.