APA Corporation APA
APA Corporation's fundamental turnaround is real—net income grew 78.4% YoY in FY2025, total debt was cut from $6.16B to $4.81B, and free cash flow reached $1.78B—but the stock has already run nearly 100% over the past year to $43.45, pushing RSI to 72.8 and well above both the 50-day ($35.88) and 200-day ($32.40) moving averages. While the valuation remains deeply discounted versus peers (PE of 9.2 vs peer median 20.2; EV/EBITDA of 3.5 vs 12.2), revenue is still declining at -8.4% YoY and gross margin has compressed from 51.1% (FY2023) to 37.3% (FY2025), which tempers the re-rating case at current elevated prices.
The $700M cost-cut program and Suriname project (2028 start) are credible catalysts, but much of that upside appears priced in after the rally. Hold for existing positions; await a pullback toward the 50-day MA for new entry.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Gross margin fell from 51.1% in FY2023 to 37.3% in FY2025, and if oil prices soften further, the cost-cut story may not fully offset declining realized prices.
- Overbought technicals. RSI at 72.8 and the stock trading 21% above its 50-day MA ($35.88) leave it vulnerable to a mean-reversion pullback.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score turned slightly negative at -0.0576 as of Q2 2026, and Hotchkis & Wiley trimmed their stake by 319,811 shares per recent 13D filing.
- Revenue decline persists. Revenue fell 8.4% YoY in FY2025 to $8.92B, continuing a multi-year top-line erosion that could eventually pressure the bottom-line recovery.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 · fundamentals FY2024 vs FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025. Orin's read on APA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All APA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $1.0B | 3.0% of fund |
| State Street | $820.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $752.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $564.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $498.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $433.1M | 0.1% of fund |
82 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 298 Form 4 filings, net $5.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APA
Orin answers questions about APA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2× | 6.1× | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.5× | 3.3× | — |
| P/S | 1.75× | 1.26× | — |
| P/B | 2.2× | — | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.04σ from its own mean).
-3.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$46
$36 – $62 · +7% against today's price
- 21 buy or overweight
- 27 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APAAPA Corporation | $15B | 9.2× | 3.5× | 38.8% | 19.0% | 26% |
| AMAntero Midstream Corporation | $10B | 25.3× | 14.1× | 62.9% | 30.4% | 20% |
| HESMHess Midstream LP | $8B | 13.3× | 9.4× | 80.8% | 23.3% | 69% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 52.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $109 | $38.46 · +183% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $113 | $38.46 · +195% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.