APA Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
APA Corporation remains a hold ahead of its Q3 2026 earnings call on November 5, as the stock's technical momentum (last close $45.88, above both the 50-day MA of $42.46 and 200-day MA of $35.85 as of 9 Oct) and discounted EV/EBITDA of 3.39 versus a peer median of 5.02 are offset by severe quality-of-earnings distortions in Q2 2026, where gross profit collapsed to $26M on $2.4B revenue and operating income was -$1.1B even as net income reached $747M via non-operating gains.
FY2025 gross margin compressed to 37.3% from 51.1% in FY2023, and while Q1 2026 showed a more normal operating profile with $830M operating income, the Q2 anomaly and a potential North Sea Forties pipeline strike create too much near-term uncertainty to justify a buy despite the compelling relative value.
What could go wrong
- Quality of earnings deterioration. Q2 2026 gross profit was only $26M on $2.4B revenue with operating income of -$1.1B, yet net income was $747M—indicating large non-operating gains masking core operational weakness.
- North Sea operational disruption. Reuters reported on 4 Oct that over 160 Apache offshore workers backed a strike that could disrupt the UK's North Sea Forties pipeline, a major conduit for UK oil and gas supplies.
- Margin compression trend. FY2025 gross margin fell to 37.3% from 51.1% in FY2023 and 56.5% in FY2022, reflecting structural cost pressures or lower realized prices that could persist.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score as of 30 Jun was -0.04 with 60 funds, still negative though improving from -0.07 in Q3 2025, indicating institutional positioning remains cautious.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · technicals, 9 Oct · FY23 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on APA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 118% over twelve months, from $23.34 on 27 Oct 2025 to $50.79 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $51.90 on 23 Oct 2026; the last close is 2.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 23.9M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All APA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $1.0B | 3.0% |
| State Street | $820.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $752.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $564.5M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $498.9M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $433.1M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $431.8M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $320.3M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $297.2M | 0.0% |
84 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 307 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $143K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APA
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Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 7.0× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 6.1×); the typical Energy company on the NASDAQ is at 15.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 7.0×above usual | 6.1× | 15.1× |
| P/S | 1.61×above usual | 1.26× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5×below usual | 3.3× | — |
| P/B | 1.9× | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 1.4× to 36.6× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $47.40 (from $39 to $62) — 7% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$47.40
$39 – $62 · −7% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 7.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 9.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APAAPA Corporation | $15B | 7.0× | 2.5× | 35.7% | 22.9% | 31% |
| DVNDevon Energy Corporation | $47B | 10.1× | 6.6× | 34.0% | 16.7% | 15% |
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | $22B | 8.1× | 3.4× | 63.5% | 20.1% | 14% |
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | $63B | 9.4× | 5.2× | 43.4% | 28.8% | 19% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 7.0× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now7.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 15.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now15.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $84 a share — 65% above the $50.85 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $84 | 65% above $50.85 |
| Levered | $91 | 79% above $50.85 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.