Ares Management Corporation ARES
Ares Management's FY2025 revenue surged 66.5% to $6.47B with $3.19B in free cash flow, and Q2 2026 results confirmed record fundraising and double-digit fee-related earnings growth — but diluted EPS still declined 5.3% to $1.96, signaling that share dilution is absorbing much of the operational gain. The stock trades at 62.3x trailing earnings, a 258% premium to the peer median of 17.4x, and insiders have sold a net $763.8M of stock over 24 months including CEO Arougheti's June 30 sale of 82,957 shares at $111.31.
With smart money essentially flat (-0.0064 as of Q2 2026) and MACD turning negative, the strong fundamentals are already more than fully priced in.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 62.3x earnings versus a peer median of 17.4x, any disappointment in fundraising or fee-related earnings could trigger a sharp de-rating given the premium multiple.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of 4.77M shares worth $763.8M over 24 months, with 193 sales versus 25 acquisitions, signal that management may not view current levels as attractive entry points.
- EPS dilution despite revenue growth. FY2025 revenue grew 66.5% yet EPS fell from $2.07 to $1.96, indicating share count expansion or margin pressure that could persist if equity-based compensation continues accelerating.
- High leverage. Total debt of $14.9B against stockholders' equity of $4.3B as of FY2025 creates balance-sheet sensitivity in a credit downturn, particularly given Ares's direct lending exposure.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on ARES; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ARES filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 14 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 14 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 13 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 12 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 7 Aug | Ares Management Corporation reported total revenues of $1.429 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 5.8% year-over-year from $1.350 billion in the prior year period. | read |
| 8-K | 31 Jul | Ares Management Corporation reported second quarter 2026 GAAP net income of $150.6 million, or $0.49 per share. | read |
| 8-K | 11 Jun | Ares Management Corporation held its annual meeting of stockholders on June 8, 2026. | read |
| 8-K | 28 May | Ares Management Corporation, through its subsidiary Ares Holdings L.P., amended its credit agreement on May 21, 2026. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.0% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $1.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $999.4M | 0.0% of fund |
87 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 218 Form 4 filings, net −$763.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 20 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ARES
Orin answers questions about ARES from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 52.4× | 66.6× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.1× | 22.6× | — |
| P/S | 6.18× | 5.43× | — |
| P/B | 6.9× | 8.2× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.37σ from its own mean).
1.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$149
$134 – $168 · +24% against today's price
- 17 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARESAres Management Corporation | $39B | 52.4× | 21.1× | 62.7% | 10.0% | 15% |
| APOApollo Global Management, Inc. | $70B | 26.1× | 6.0× | 84.5% | 5.2% | 9% |
| BROBrown & Brown, Inc. | $20B | 16.7× | 11.2× | 59.0% | 17.6% | 10% |
| HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated | $31B | 11.3× | 14.2× | 63.7% | 16.6% | 9% |
| MSMorgan Stanley | $310B | 15.8× | 23.0× | 59.7% | 16.0% | 18% |
| RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc. | $30B | 13.6× | 7.9× | 83.5% | 13.6% | 18% |
| SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc. | $22B | 32.9× | 23.5× | 76.5% | 11.4% | 6% |
| STTState Street Corporation | $50B | 15.7× | 14.8× | 65.3% | 15.0% | 12% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 232.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $91 | $129.24 · −29% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-20 | $129.24 · −116% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.