Ares Management Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Ares Management remains a best-in-class alternative asset manager with FY2025 revenue of $6.47B and $3.19B in free cash flow, but Q2 2026 revenue growth decelerated sharply to 5.8% YoY from 40.8% in Q1 2026, and diluted EPS fell to $0.49 from $0.64 the prior quarter — a warning that the explosive 66.5% FY2025 revenue surge is normalizing.
The stock trades at 51.95x trailing earnings, a 235% premium to the peer median of 15.50x, and insiders have net sold $763.8M over 24 months. With the stock at $118.97 below both its 50-day ($133.46) and 200-day ($130.73) moving averages and RSI at 32.86, the recent pullback has created a more interesting entry point, but the valuation premium and growth deceleration keep the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 51.95x PE versus a peer median of 15.50x and 6.12x PS versus 2.14x, any disappointment in fundraising or fee-related earnings could trigger a sharp de-rating given the 235% PE premium.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Q2 2026 revenue grew only 5.8% YoY, down from 40.8% in Q1 2026 and 71.2% in Q2 2025, suggesting the FY2025 surge is not sustaining at the same pace.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 4.77M shares worth $763.8M across 193 dispositions versus 25 acquisitions, including CEO Arougheti's sale of 82,957 shares at $111.31 on June 30, 2026.
- High leverage. Total debt of $14.91B against stockholders' equity of $4.28B as of FY2025 creates balance sheet sensitivity in a credit downturn, particularly given the firm's direct lending exposure.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on ARES; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 19.1% over twelve months, from $150.97 on 27 Oct 2025 to $122.19 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $178.28 on 10 Dec 2025; the last close is 31.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 47.9M, on 10 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All ARES filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 29 Sep | Ares Management Corporation expects realized net performance income for the quarter ending September 30, 2026, to be approximately $10 million, an increase from $9 million for the… | read |
| 13G/A | 14 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 14 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 13 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 12 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 7 Aug | Ares Management Corporation reported total revenues of $1.429 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 5.8% year-over-year from $1.350 billion in the prior year period. | read |
| 8-K | 31 Jul | Ares Management Corporation reported second quarter 2026 GAAP net income of $150.6 million, or $0.49 per share. | read |
| 8-K | 11 Jun | Ares Management Corporation held its annual meeting of stockholders on June 8, 2026. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.9B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.1B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $999.4M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $751.2M | 0.1% |
| Canada Pension Plan Investment Board | $740.2M | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $647.9M | 0.0% |
90 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 218 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$702.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 20 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ARES
Orin answers questions about ARES from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 53.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 78.7×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 53.4×below usual | 78.7× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 6.28×above usual | 5.43× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.4×below usual | 22.6× | — |
| P/B | 7.0×below usual | 8.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $146 (from $130 to $168) — 19% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$146
$130 – $168 · +19% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 53.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 25.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARESAres Management Corporation | $40B | 53.4× | 21.4× | 62.7% | 10.0% | 15% |
| APOApollo Global Management, Inc. | $67B | 24.7× | 5.8× | 84.5% | 5.2% | 9% |
| BXBlackstone Inc. | $134B | 25.8× | 16.9× | 89.7% | 21.8% | 41% |
| KKRKKR & Co. Inc. | $83B | 27.4× | 12.6× | 22.5% | 15.0% | 10% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 53.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now53.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $82 a share — 33% below the $122.75 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $82 | 33% below $122.75 |
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.