Broadcom Inc. AVGO
Broadcom posted exceptional Q3 FY2026 results (quarter ended 2026-08-02) with revenue of $29.59B, up 85.5% YoY, and AI revenue surging 221% to $16.7B, yet the stock fell 3–5% post-earnings as guidance disappointed investors who expected more. At $369.68 the stock sits at its 200-day MA ($369.55) with RSI at 43.3 and a negative MACD histogram, reflecting deteriorating momentum, while persistent insider selling (net -5.3M shares over 24 months) and a declining smart money score (from 0.3683 to 0.1608 as of 2026-06-30) add caution.
The 45.6x PE is roughly in line with the peer median of 47.0, which is reasonable given the growth trajectory, but the 19.6x price-to-sales ratio at a 77% premium to peers leaves little room for error if AI spending decelerates. Hold pending clarity on whether the guidance softness is transient or signals a plateau in AI demand.
What could go wrong
- AI capex deceleration. News headlines question who foots the bill for AI infrastructure; any slowdown in hyperscaler spending could compress the 85.5% revenue growth that AVGO delivered in Q3 FY2026.
- Elevated valuation on sales basis. At 19.6x price-to-sales, AVGO trades at a 77% premium to the peer median of 11.1x, leaving the stock vulnerable if revenue growth disappoints even modestly.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 5.3M shares worth $1.5B across 383 dispositions versus only 25 acquisitions, with no cluster buying detected.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score declined from 0.3683 (Q1 2026) to 0.1608 (Q2 2026) and fund count dropped from 80 to 77, suggesting institutional conviction is waning.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results, quarter ended 2026-08-02 · news article, Invezz, published 2026-09-03 · news articles, Benzinga and MarketWatch, published 2026-09-03 · peer_relative, as of latest data. Orin's read on AVGO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AVGO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $116.8B | 2.5% of fund |
| State Street | $74.4B | 2.2% of fund |
| Fmr | $54.5B | 2.4% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $48.0B | 2.2% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $46.0B | 5.4% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $43.9B | 2.3% of fund |
235 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 410 Form 4 filings, net −$1.5B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 45 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AVGO
Orin answers questions about AVGO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 44.0× | 32.1× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.0× | 18.2× | — |
| P/S | 18.95× | 9.75× | — |
| P/B | 17.0× | 11.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.28σ from its own mean).
23.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $26.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$510
$350 – $600 · +44% against today's price
- 54 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGOBroadcom Inc. | $1.69T | 44.0× | 33.0× | 67.7% | 42.9% | 44% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $188B | 45.5× | 29.8× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $1.00T | 156.0× | 93.4× | 53.2% | 15.6% | 10% |
| ASMLASML Holding N.V. | $672B | 55.0× | 42.0× | 52.7% | 30.1% | 52% |
| FORMFormFactor, Inc. | $10B | 88.7× | 59.3× | 45.6% | 12.8% | 11% |
| METAMeta Platforms, Inc. | $1.90T | 27.7× | 18.6× | 81.7% | 29.8% | 30% |
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | $1.21T | 23.9× | 17.4× | 72.6% | 55.9% | 71% |
| POWIPower Integrations, Inc. | $3B | 112.2× | 68.8× | 53.6% | 5.6% | 4% |
| QRVOQorvo, Inc. | $11B | 27.5× | 13.8× | 48.2% | 11.0% | 11% |
| SMTCSemtech Corporation | $16B | 102.2× | 136.1× | 52.0% | 13.1% | 25% |
| TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | $2.32T | 29.0× | 19.2× | 64.2% | 50.4% | 39% |
The median is of the 10 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 12.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $198 | $373.33 · −47% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $194 | $373.33 · −48% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.