Best Buy Co., Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Best Buy's revenue inflection is now confirmed across two consecutive quarters — Q2 FY2027 revenue grew 3.6% YoY to $9.78B, accelerating from Q1's 1.9% and FY2026's full-year 0.4%, while EPS has beaten estimates for seven straight quarters including $1.48 actual versus $1.39 estimate in the most recent quarter.
The stock trades at a P/E of 15.39, a roughly 48% discount to the peer median of 29.52, and technicals are constructive with price at $92.63 above both the 50-day ($88.00) and 200-day ($73.85) moving averages alongside a positive MACD histogram of 0.42. The combination of accelerating top-line growth, expanding operating margins from the FY2024 trough of 3.6% to 4.2% in FY2026, and a deeply discounted valuation relative to peers supports accumulation despite persistent insider net selling of approximately 4.0M shares over 24 months.
What could go wrong
- Insider selling persistence. Net insider dispositions of ~4.05M shares worth ~$325.4M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions, including recent sales by SEVP Scarlett at ~$92, signal limited insider conviction at current price levels.
- Margin compression vs. historical norms. FY2026 operating margin of 4.2% remains well below the FY2022 level of 5.8%, and gross margin has been roughly flat at 22.5%, limiting earnings leverage even as revenue recovers.
- Consumer spending cyclicality. As a consumer cyclical specialty retailer, BBY is exposed to discretionary tech spending pullbacks if macro conditions deteriorate, which could reverse the recent revenue acceleration.
- Smart money positioning is lukewarm. Smart money score of 0.01 as of Q2 2026 is only marginally positive and fund count declined from 62 to 60 quarter-over-quarter, suggesting institutional conviction is not building meaningfully.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 1 Aug · earnings vs estimates, 27 Aug · peer comparison · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on BBY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 18.8% over twelve months, from $82.88 on 27 Oct 2025 to $98.50 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $99.87 on 23 Oct 2026; the last close is 1.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 16.6M, on 3 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All BBY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.9B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $980.9M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $699.6M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $617.9M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $521.5M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $385.1M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $376.1M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $335.4M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $288.8M | 0.1% |
84 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 86 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$325.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 21 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BBY
Orin answers questions about BBY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 13.3×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.4×above usual | 13.3× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 0.49×above usual | 0.41× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.7×above usual | 7.3× | — |
| P/B | 6.5×near usual | 6.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $86.77 (from $60 to $100) — 12% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$86.77
$60 – $100 · −12% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 14 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.4× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (AAPL 39.7×, AMZN 20.1×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBYBest Buy Co., Inc. | $21B | 16.4× | 8.7× | 22.7% | 3.0% | 43% |
| AAPLApple Inc. | $5.07T | 39.7× | 30.2× | 48.7% | 27.6% | 137% |
| AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. | $2.73T | 20.1× | 11.3× | 50.8% | 17.4% | 30% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $69 a share — 30% below the $97.92 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $69 | 30% below $97.92 |
| Levered | $59 | 40% below $97.92 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.