Casey's General Stores, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Casey's General Stores has bounced roughly 11% from the early-October lows to $689.22 as of 16 Oct, supported by accelerating fundamentals: Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 24.3% YoY to $5.68B with EPS of $7.37 beating estimates by 8.7%, and FY2026 operating margin expanded to 5.9% from 5.0% the prior year.
However, the stock still trades at a 33.0x P/E — a 53% premium to the peer median of 21.5x — and remains below both its 50-day ($703.28) and 200-day ($736.57) moving averages, while 24-month insider net selling of -$55.2M and a smart-money score near zero offer no conviction from either insiders or institutions. The bullish MACD histogram turn (+14.01) and recovering RSI (63.5) suggest near-term stabilization, but the combination of a rich valuation, persistent insider selling, and an unconfirmed technical floor argues for waiting until the stock reclaims its 50-day MA before turning constructive.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. At 33.0x P/E and 19.2x EV/EBITDA, CASY trades at a 53% and 90% premium to peer medians respectively, leaving limited room for execution missteps.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders have net sold 88,570 shares worth $55.2M across 54 dispositions versus only 4 acquisitions, all of which were small RSU grants.
- Technical overhead. Stock at $689.22 sits below both the 50-day ($703.28) and 200-day ($736.57) moving averages; failure to reclaim these levels could cap the recovery.
- Leverage. Total debt of $2.905B against equity of $3.952B as of FY2026, up from $1.751B in FY2024, increases sensitivity to any margin compression or rising rates.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 31 Jul · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · peer comparison · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on CASY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 30.2% over twelve months, from $535.95 on 27 Oct 2025 to $697.54 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $916.28 on 11 Jun 2026; the last close is 23.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.7M, on 8 Apr 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CASY filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 8 Sep | — | on file |
| 8-K | 8 Sep | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 31 Jul | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 31 Jul | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 27 Jul | — | on file |
| DEF 14A | 22 Jul | Darren M. Rebelez, President and CEO, received total compensation of $14,741,268 for fiscal year 2026, comprising a $1,350,000 base salary, $9,647,958 in stock awards, $3,260,250… | read |
| 8-K | 24 Jun | Casey's General Stores, Inc. filed an 8-K on June 24, 2026, to furnish its 2026 Investor Day presentation, attached as Exhibit 99.1. | read |
| 10-K | 22 Jun | Casey's General Stores, Inc. operates a chain of convenience stores primarily in the Midwest, offering a broad selection of food items, beverages, tobacco, groceries, and other… | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.8B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $858.6M | 0.0% |
| DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral Genossenschafts Bank, Frankfurt am Main | $663.2M | 0.5% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $633.8M | 0.0% |
| Franklin Resources | $614.9M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $506.0M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $503.3M | 0.0% |
87 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 240 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$55.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 18 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CASY
Orin answers questions about CASY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 33.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 23.7×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NASDAQ is at 82.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.4×above usual | 23.7× | 82.5× |
| P/S | 1.38×above usual | 0.80× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.4×above usual | 12.5× | — |
| P/B | 6.3×above usual | 3.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $818 (from $687 to $1,069) — 17% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$818
$687 – $1,069 · +17% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 33.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc. | $26B | 33.4× | 19.4× | 23.8% | 4.1% | 20% |
| AMCRAmcor plc | $21B | 16.8× | 10.3× | 19.3% | 4.6% | 9% |
| BBYBest Buy Co., Inc. | $21B | 16.4× | 8.7× | 22.7% | 3.0% | 43% |
| GPCGenuine Parts Company | $17B | 468× | 30.9× | 36.4% | 0.1% | 1% |
| LULULululemon Athletica Inc. | $12B | 8.6× | 5.0× | 56.1% | 12.8% | 30% |
| RLRalph Lauren Corporation | $23B | 21.6× | 15.0× | 71.8% | 12.6% | 38% |
| SWSmurfit Westrock Plc | $22B | 44.8× | 8.4× | 18.0% | 1.6% | 3% |
| ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. | $27B | 22.8× | 15.0× | 39.3% | 9.3% | 45% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 33.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now33.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 82.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now82.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $265 a share — 62% below the $695.69 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $265 | 62% below $695.69 |
| Levered | $334 | 52% below $695.69 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.