Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY
Casey's General Stores delivered exceptional FY2026 results—revenue up 10.2% to $17.56B, EPS up 30.9% to $19.16, operating margin expanding to 5.89% from 5.0%, and FCF of $721.6M—but the stock still trades at 39.2x earnings, roughly 101% above the peer median of 19.5x, and 21.9x EV/EBITDA, 107% above peers. The recent pullback to $755.47 from the $830+ range (below the 50-day MA of $832.82, RSI at 32.4) has improved the entry point, but persistent insider selling—CEO, CFO, and COO all sold in July 2026 with 24-month net selling of -$127.5M—signals caution from those closest to the business.
Strong fundamentals justify a premium, but not this much premium with insiders heading for the exits.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 39.2x PE and 21.9x EV/EBITDA—roughly double peer medians—any deceleration in growth or margin expansion could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
- Insider selling acceleration. The CEO, CFO, and COO all sold shares in July 2026 at prices above $806–$838, and 24-month net insider selling totals -$127.5M, suggesting limited insider confidence at current valuations.
- Technical deterioration. Stock has broken below its 50-day MA ($832.82) with RSI at 32.4 and MACD histogram at -10.32, indicating bearish momentum that could extend toward the 200-day MA at $721.60.
- Leverage. Total debt of $2.91B against stockholders' equity of $3.95B as of FY2026, up from $1.75B in FY2024, increases sensitivity to any earnings shortfall.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-04-30 · derived_metrics FY2026 · peer_relative as of 2026-08-28 · insider transactions, 24-month summary. Orin's read on CASY; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CASY filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 31 Jul | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 31 Jul | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 27 Jul | — | on file |
| DEF 14A | 22 Jul | Darren M. Rebelez, President and CEO, received total compensation of $14,741,268 for fiscal year 2026, comprising a $1,350,000 base salary, $9,647,958 in stock awards, $3,260,250… | read |
| 8-K | 24 Jun | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | read |
| 10-K | 22 Jun | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 9 Jun | Casey's General Stores announced an expansion of its share repurchase authorization to $1 billion from $400 million, effective June 4, 2026. | read |
| 8-K | 8 Jun | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.4B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $858.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral Genossenschafts Bank, Frankfurt am Main | $663.2M | 0.5% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $633.8M | 0.0% of fund |
84 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 240 Form 4 filings, net −$127.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 18 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CASY
Orin answers questions about CASY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.7× | 23.7× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.9× | 12.6× | — |
| P/S | 1.19× | 0.80× | — |
| P/B | 5.4× | 3.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.00σ from its own mean).
13.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$824
$687 – $1069 · +40% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc. | $22B | 28.7× | 16.9× | 23.8% | 4.1% | 20% |
| AMCRAmcor plc | $19B | 17.6× | 9.9× | 20.0% | 4.7% | 9% |
| BBYBest Buy Co., Inc. | $19B | 15.1× | 8.2× | 22.7% | 3.0% | 43% |
| GPCGenuine Parts Company | $18B | 497.2× | 32.5× | 36.2% | 0.1% | 1% |
| LULULululemon Athletica Inc. | $12B | 8.4× | 4.8× | 56.1% | 12.8% | 30% |
| RLRalph Lauren Corporation | $21B | 21.9× | 15.4× | 70.3% | 11.8% | 36% |
| SWSmurfit Westrock Plc | $24B | 47.2× | 8.6× | 17.9% | 1.6% | 3% |
| ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc. | $24B | 19.9× | 13.4× | 39.3% | 9.3% | 45% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 44.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $286 | $873.45 · −67% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $354 | $873.45 · −60% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.