Orin
CHTRNasdaq·Telecommunications Services

Charter Communications, Inc. CHTR

Market cap $15.8BP/E 3.0× trailingGross margin 56.6%Reports Fri 30 Oct, before the open
$116.61
−0.65 (−0.55%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $111.55 – $285.82
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 31 Aug · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Charter remains an optically cheap but fundamentally mixed story following the August 20, 2026 close of its $34.5B Cox merger, which adds integration risk on top of an already heavy $97.1B debt load as of FY2025 and a core business that saw revenue decline 0.56% YoY and net income fall 1.89% in FY2025. The stock trades at 3.9x earnings and 5.8x EV/EBITDA—roughly 75% and 42% below peer medians—but that discount reflects real deterioration, and the shares at $152.44 still sit 17% below the 200-day MA of $183.24.

Encouraging signals include a detected insider cluster buy (~$3.8M from four insiders in April–May 2026), CEO Winfrey's $44.4M option exercise on August 20, and a smart money score that turned slightly positive at 0.0219 as of Q2 2026 after being negative for three straight quarters, but none of this yet offsets the need for post-merger operating proof. The right stance is to wait for Cox integration metrics and subscriber trends before committing.

What could go wrong

  • Cox integration drag. The $34.5B Cox merger closed August 20, 2026 amid market fears it could add to subscriber issues; integration costs and customer churn could pressure already-declining revenue.
  • Debt burden. Total debt stood at $97.1B as of FY2025, supplemented by a new $4.75B senior secured notes offering in August 2026; rising interest costs could compress free cash flow.
  • Core business erosion. FY2025 revenue declined 0.56% YoY to $54.77B and net income fell 1.89%, signaling competitive pressure from fiber and fixed-wireless alternatives.
  • Technical downtrend. Stock at $152.44 remains well below its 200-day MA of $183.24, with a negative MACD histogram of -0.43, indicating the broader trend has not reversed.

What would change my mind

Cox synergies materialize. First post-merger quarterly results show subscriber net additions or cost synergies exceeding guidancebullish
Subscriber losses accelerate. Post-merger broadband subscriber net adds turn negative or Cox customer churn exceeds expectationsbearish
Debt reduction progress. Charter announces meaningful deleveraging via asset sales or uses improved FCF to pay down debt below $95Bbullish
Revenue returns to growth. Quarterly revenue growth turns positive YoY post-Cox integration, reversing the FY2025 decline of 0.56%bullish

Where this comes from: Forbes / PRNewsWire, 2026-08-20 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 · derived_metrics, FY2025 · peer_relative, as of 2026-08-31. Orin's read on CHTR; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
State Street$991.4M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$759.7M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$501.3M0.0% of fund
Goldman Sachs Group$396.4M0.0% of fund
Invesco$394.9M0.0% of fund
Norges Bank$348.8M0.0% of fund

96 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 151 Form 4 filings, net −$1.7B. Of the 50 on hand, 5 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Communication Services
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E3.0×10.8×26.3×
EV/EBITDA5.6×7.3×
P/S0.29×1.01×
P/B0.8×5.2×

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.46σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

-17.7%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

56 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$166

$101$380 · +42% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 26 buy or overweight
  • 25 hold
  • 5 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 14.6× of 1 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
CHTRCharter Communications, Inc.$16B3.0×5.6×56.6%9.1%30%
FOXAFox Corporation$28B14.6×9.3×49.4%9.8%15%

The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 79.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY16 16.9×FY25 5.7×

What its sector has traded at

Communication Services
FY14 34.0×FY26 29.1×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$1089$139.55 · +680%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$443$139.55 · +217%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $116.61
52-week range$112 – $286
Analyst targets$101 – $380
Standard DCF$1089 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $139.55
Levered DCF$443 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $139.55
At own 5y-median P/E (11×)$423
At 5y P/E range (6–26×)$221 – $1003
At sector P/E (26×)$1025

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.