CME Group Inc. CME
CME Group is a hold at $270.80. The franchise remains best-in-class with an operating margin of 64.86% and $4.19B of free cash flow against just $83.5M of capex in FY2025, and the stock trades at a P/E of 22.85 — a 7.7% discount to the peer median of 24.75.
However, Q2 2026 revenue growth decelerated sharply to +0.84% YoY from Q1's +14.5%, and the stock sits below its 200-day moving average at $278.65 with a negative MACD histogram, signaling near-term momentum is absent. October launches of Bitcoin Cash, Uniswap, and factor futures could reinvigorate volumes, but investors need evidence of revenue reacceleration before adding.
What could go wrong
- Revenue growth deceleration. Q2 2026 revenue grew just +0.84% YoY versus +14.5% in Q1 2026, a sharp slowdown that raises questions about whether FY2025's 6.37% growth rate is sustainable.
- Technical weakness. Stock at $270.80 trades below its 200-day MA of $278.65 with a negative MACD histogram of -1.69 and RSI at 47.2, indicating bearish-to-neutral momentum.
- Rich revenue multiple. P/S of 14.38 sits 79.9% above the peer median of 7.99, limiting upside if revenue growth continues to disappoint.
- Rate volatility dependency. With the Fed at 4% and rate futures a core revenue driver, any decline in interest-rate volatility could compress trading volumes in CME's largest product category.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative · quarterly_results Q2 and Q1 2026. Orin's read on CME; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CME filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $1.5B | 0.2% of fund |
125 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 200 Form 4 filings, net $7.7M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CME
Orin answers questions about CME from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.7× | 23.7× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.3× | 16.7× | — |
| P/S | 14.28× | 13.61× | — |
| P/B | 3.7× | 3.0× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.74σ from its own mean).
9.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$299
$260 – $330 · +14% against today's price
- 14 buy or overweight
- 18 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMECME Group Inc. | $97B | 22.7× | 18.3× | 81.9% | 63.1% | 16% |
| COINCoinbase Global, Inc. | $53B | — | — | 79.0% | -17.8% | -7% |
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $88B | 22.1× | 15.4× | 73.4% | 30.0% | 14% |
| MCOMoody's Corporation | $81B | 29.6× | 21.8× | 71.9% | 34.3% | 80% |
| NDAQNasdaq, Inc. | $53B | 27.2× | 19.3× | 59.4% | 22.6% | 16% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 16.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $480 | $261.48 · +84% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $481 | $261.48 · +84% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.