CME Group Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
CME Group just delivered a Q3 2026 EPS beat of $3.02 versus the $2.99 consensus, with revenue expected to reaccelerate to roughly $1.71B (+11.4% YoY per Zacks), recovering from Q2's sharp deceleration to +0.84% YoY growth.
The franchise remains best-in-class with a 64.9% operating margin and $4.19B in FY2025 free cash flow, but the stock has rallied to $295.31 with an RSI of 71.95 — overbought — and trades at a P/S of 15.68, a 141% premium to the peer median of 6.50, limiting further re-rating upside. With insiders net sellers over 24 months (-$38M net value) and valuation stretched on a price-to-sales basis, the good news appears largely priced in.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. P/S of 15.68 is 141% above the peer median of 6.50, and EV/EBITDA of 19.42 is 19.9% above the peer median of 16.20, leaving little room for multiple compression without downside.
- Revenue volatility. Q2 2026 revenue growth collapsed to +0.84% YoY from Q1's +14.5%, showing sensitivity to macro conditions and trading volume cycles.
- Technical overbought. RSI of 71.95 and price $295.31 well above the 50-day MA of $275.00 and 200-day MA of $278.92 suggest near-term pullback risk after the rally.
- Insider selling. Over the past 24 months insiders have net sold 132,981 shares worth $38M, with no cluster buying signal.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates · Q2 2026 results · Q1 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on CME; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 8.3% over twelve months, from $271.09 on 27 Oct 2025 to $293.48 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $326.46 on 2 Mar 2026; the last close is 10.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.5M, on 2 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CME filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.2B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.6B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $1.5B | 0.2% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $963.4M | 0.2% |
128 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 203 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$39.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CME
Orin answers questions about CME from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 23.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 24.0×); the typical Financial Services company on the NASDAQ is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.9×near usual | 24.0× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 15.1×above usual | 13.6× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.1×near usual | 16.7× | — |
| P/B | 4.0×above usual | 3.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $322 (from $270 to $367) — 10% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$322
$270 – $367 · +10% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 23.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 25.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMECME Group Inc. | $106B | 23.9× | 16.1× | 84.3% | 63.1% | 16% |
| CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc. | $34B | 25.2× | 16.2× | 52.3% | 26.7% | 26% |
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $87B | 21.9× | 15.9× | 79.0% | 32.3% | 14% |
| NDAQNasdaq, Inc. | $58B | 28.2× | 19.9× | 63.2% | 22.8% | 17% |
- CME: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 23.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now23.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $397 a share — 34% above the $295.73 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $397 | 34% above $295.73 |
| Levered | $396 | 34% above $295.73 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.