Costco Wholesale Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Costco closed FY2026 (ended 30 Aug) with revenue of $303.2B and 10.1% YoY growth, accelerating from 8.2% in FY2025, while operating margin expanded to 3.9% and EPS grew 14% to $20.76.
September net sales of $30.02B (+13% YoY) with 19% digital growth signal a strong FY2027 start, but at $946.92 the stock trades at 45.57x trailing earnings — a 176.9% premium to the peer median of 16.46x — and remains below its 200-day MA of $963.47. With insiders net selling 37,638 shares over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions and smart money scores cooling from 0.16 (as of Q3 2025) to 0.02 (as of Q2 2026), best-in-class execution is already more than fully priced in.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 45.57x PE versus a peer median of 16.46x, any deceleration in growth or margin could trigger a sharp de-rating even if fundamentals remain solid.
- Membership renewal slowdown. Recent news notes market worry about slowing membership metrics; a renewal-rate decline would undermine the recurring-revenue thesis underpinning the premium multiple.
- Insider and smart-money divergence. Insiders have been net sellers (37,638 shares over 24 months, zero open-market buys) and smart money scores have fallen from 0.16 to 0.02, suggesting sophisticated holders are trimming.
- Technical resistance at 200-day MA. Stock at $946.92 sits below the 200-day MA of $963.47; failure to reclaim that level could cap upside and invite a pullback toward the 50-day MA at $931.43.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · news, 8 Oct · peer comparison · technicals, 9 Oct. Orin's read on COST; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 6.7% over twelve months, from $929.85 on 27 Oct 2025 to $992.13 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $1,094.32 on 19 May 2026; the last close is 9.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 10.1M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All COST filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $32.0B | 0.5% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $27.1B | 0.6% |
| State Street | $17.2B | 0.5% |
| Invesco | $13.1B | 1.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $9.9B | 0.5% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $9.7B | 0.4% |
| Morgan Stanley | $9.6B | 0.5% |
| Bank of America | $6.8B | 0.4% |
| Norges Bank | $6.1B | 0.6% |
| FMR | $5.8B | 0.3% |
191 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 172 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$36.8M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about COST
Orin answers questions about COST from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 47.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 45.4×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NASDAQ is at 37.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 47.7×above usual | 45.4× | 37.9× |
| P/S | 1.45×near usual | 1.38× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.8×above usual | 28.4× | — |
| P/B | 12.3×above usual | 11.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $1,112 (from $955 to $1,275) — 12% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$1,112
$955 – $1,275 · +12% against the last close
- 21 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 47.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 16.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation | $440B | 47.7× | 29.8× | 12.8% | 3.0% | 28% |
| DGDollar General Corporation | $28B | 16.4× | 11.9× | 31.2% | 3.9% | 20% |
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | $23B | 15.1× | 9.8× | 38.7% | 8.0% | 46% |
| KRThe Kroger Co. | $39B | 35.6× | 11.3× | 23.1% | 0.7% | 17% |
| TGTTarget Corporation | $67B | 15.3× | 8.7× | 29.3% | 4.1% | 27% |
| WMTWalmart Inc. | $950B | 43.1× | 21.6× | 25.2% | 3.0% | 23% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 47.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now47.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 37.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now37.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $279 a share — 72% below the $992.03 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $279 | 72% below $992.03 |
| Levered | $402 | 59% below $992.03 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.