Campbell Soup Company CPB
Campbell's remains a sell as Q4 FY2026 results (quarter ended 2026-08-02) confirmed accelerating operational deterioration — revenue fell 7.9% YoY to $2.14B and operating income collapsed to $4M, producing a $60M net loss (-$0.23 EPS), versus FY2025 full-year net income of $602M. The subsequent 35.9% dividend cut — the first since 2001 — signals severe cash-flow deterioration, while $7.21B total debt against $3.90B equity and an EV/EBITDA of 11.47x (178.8% above the peer median of 4.11x) show the stock remains mispriced at 16.51x trailing P/E.
Four consecutive quarters of revenue decline and net insider selling of $1.83B over 24 months reinforce the bearish stance.
What could go wrong
- Oversold technical reversal. RSI at 33.3 and last close $20.21 trading 14% below the 200-day MA of $23.58 may attract technical buyers and trigger a relief rally.
- Cost savings execution. Management's $500M cost savings target could stabilize margins if successfully executed, though this remains a plan rather than delivered results.
- Forward valuation support. Forward P/E of 12.39x cited in recent coverage may attract value-oriented buyers despite near-term weakness.
- Defensive sector flows. As a Consumer Defensive name, macro risk-off rotation could support the stock independently of company-specific fundamentals.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results · fundamentals FY2025 · news (Seeking Alpha, Zacks) · peer_relative. Orin's read on CPB; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CPB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $276.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $206.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Two Sigma Investments | $179.2M | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $173.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $157.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $110.1M | 0.0% of fund |
70 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 95 Form 4 filings, net −$1.8B. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CPB
Orin answers questions about CPB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.2× | 16.0× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1× | 10.9× | — |
| P/S | 0.62× | 1.46× | — |
| P/B | 1.6× | 3.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.69σ from its own mean).
-4.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$20
$18 – $22 · −4% against today's price
- 2 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 11 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPBCampbell Soup Company | $6B | 15.2× | 10.1× | 28.1% | 4.1% | 10% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | $7B | — | — | 23.9% | -17.0% | -24% |
| HRLHormel Foods Corporation | $11B | 31.6× | 14.9× | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4% |
| SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company | $13B | 56.9× | 14.9× | 38.7% | 2.5% | 4% |
| TAPMolson Coors Beverage Company | $7B | — | — | 36.2% | -20.8% | -23% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 65.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $99 | $22.96 · +333% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $78 | $22.96 · +242% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.