Campbell Soup Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Campbell's has been heavily punished — down 16% in September to $18.90 as of 7 Oct — after FY2026 (ended 2 Aug) results confirmed severe deterioration with full-year EPS falling 34.8% to $1.31 and Q4 delivering just $4M in operating income alongside a $60M net loss.
The 35.9% dividend cut, while a negative signal, is a necessary deleveraging step given $7.14B in total debt against $3.85B in equity, and FY27 guidance for organic sales down 4%-2% and adjusted EPS down 24%-17% signals near-term headwinds persist. With RSI at 31 (deeply oversold), a PS multiple of 0.58x (23.4% below the peer median), and FCF of $678M still intact, much of the bad news appears priced in, but margin stabilization and a return to revenue growth must materialize before a constructive stance is warranted.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression continues. Gross margin fell to 28.1% in FY2026 from 30.4% in FY2025, and operating margin collapsed to 8.7% from 13.2%; continued inflation and negative pricing per FY27 guidance could drive further erosion.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $7.14B against stockholders' equity of $3.85B and EV/EBITDA of 9.79x (157.4% above the peer median of 3.80x) constrain financial flexibility.
- FY27 guidance implies further weakness. Management guided organic net sales down 4%-2% and adjusted EPS down 24%-17% for FY27, with gross margins pressured by inflation and negative pricing.
- Insider disposition activity. Over 24 months, net insider selling of 14,150 shares ($394.5K net value), including a large disposition by vanBeuren of 437,692 shares to zero ownership.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · Q4 FY26 results · news, 5 Oct · technicals, 7 Oct. Orin's read on CPB; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 34.1% over twelve months, from $31.39 on 27 Oct 2025 to $20.68 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $31.66 on 21 Nov 2025; the last close is 34.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 62.1M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CPB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $650.8M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $276.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $206.1M | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $179.2M | 0.1% |
| State Street | $173.3M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $157.6M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $110.1M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $93.4M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $90.7M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $79.1M | 0.0% |
72 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 135 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$395K. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CPB
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Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 15.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 16.7×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NASDAQ is at 37.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.4×below usual | 16.7× | 37.9× |
| P/S | 0.63×below usual | 1.46× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1×below usual | 10.9× | — |
| P/B | 1.6×below usual | 3.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $19.70 (from $18 to $22) — 5% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$19.70
$18 – $22 · −5% against the last close
- 0 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 7 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 15.4× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 5 companies it is compared to made a profit (HRL 33.1×, SJM 59.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPBCampbell Soup Company | $6B | 15.4× | 10.1× | 28.1% | 4.1% | 10% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | $7B | lost money | n/m | 23.8% | −17.0% | −26% |
| GISGeneral Mills, Inc. | $18B | lost money | 9.3× | 33.6% | −4.9% | −11% |
| HRLHormel Foods Corporation | $11B | 33.1× | 15.5× | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4% |
| KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company | $30B | lost money | n/m | 33.5% | −14.0% | −9% |
| SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company | $14B | 59.3× | 15.3× | 38.7% | 2.5% | 4% |
- CAG, GIS, KHC: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- CAG, KHC: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 15.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now15.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 37.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now37.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $45 a share — 120% above the $20.35 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $45 | 120% above $20.35 |
| Levered | $35 | 74% above $20.35 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.