Domino's Pizza, Inc. DPZ
Domino's remains fundamentally intact — FY2025 revenue grew 4.96% YoY to $4.94B with operating margin expansion from 18.68% to 19.31% and EPS of $17.57 — but the stock has deteriorated badly in 2026, trading at $296.43 as of September 23, well below both its 50-day MA ($334.84) and 200-day MA ($358.30), with RSI at 33.6 and a deeply negative MACD histogram of -3.33. Two consecutive EPS misses in Q1 and Q2 2026 (-3.7% and -2.4% surprise respectively) alongside negative franchise store-closure headlines cap near-term upside, while the EV/EBITDA of 14.9x — a 46.8% premium to the peer median of 10.16x — leaves little room for error.
The oversold technicals and still-improving margins argue against selling, but the combination of decelerating growth, execution slips, and rich relative valuation on an EV basis warrants patience rather than accumulation.
What could go wrong
- Franchisee distress. Recent news of abrupt store closures tied to a major franchisee's financial struggles signals potential downstream risk to the franchise-heavy model, even though Domino's stated the closures are unrelated to overall performance.
- Persistent overvaluation on EV basis. EV/EBITDA of 14.9x sits 46.8% above the peer median of 10.16x, and PS of 1.95x is 74.6% above the peer median of 1.12x, meaning the market may continue to derate the stock even if earnings hold.
- Earnings momentum stalling. Q1 and Q2 2026 both missed consensus EPS by -3.7% and -2.4% respectively, and FY2025 EPS growth of 4.83% YoY slowed meaningfully from 14.32% in FY2024.
- Leveraged balance sheet. Total debt of $5.23B against negative stockholders' equity of -$3.90B as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility and amplifies downside if comp trends weaken further.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual & derived_metrics · FMP earnings_surprises · FMP technicals as of 2026-09-23 · FMP peer_relative. Orin's read on DPZ; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All DPZ filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Fmr | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Soroban Capital Partners | $786.9M | 1.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $616.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $595.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $451.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $386.6M | 0.0% of fund |
83 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 158 Form 4 filings, net $1.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 15 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DPZ
Orin answers questions about DPZ from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.6× | 27.4× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.8× | 20.6× | — |
| P/S | 1.93× | 3.10× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.08σ from its own mean).
3.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$375
$315 – $480 · +30% against today's price
- 26 buy or overweight
- 25 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc. | $10B | 16.6× | 14.8× | 40.0% | 11.9% | -15% |
| BALLBall Corporation | $15B | 16.1× | 10.2× | 16.4% | 6.6% | 17% |
| WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited | $8B | 18.4× | 9.8× | 38.6% | 6.1% | -175% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 3.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $388 | $316.50 · +23% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $278 | $316.50 · −12% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.