Domino's Pizza, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Domino's Pizza screens cheap on every metric versus its only listed peer — 17.56x trailing PE versus YUM's 18.32x and 11.41x EV/EBITDA versus 17.69x — but the valuation discount is increasingly justified by deteriorating top-line trends.
Q3 2026 revenue grew just 3.4% year-over-year and U.S. same-store sales crawled to 0.3% with international at 0.2%, confirming the deceleration flagged in recent WSJ and Benzinga coverage. While the 5.5% EPS beat ($4.60 versus $4.36 estimated) and expanding operating margin to 19.3% in FY2025 show cost discipline and buyback support, a stock near five-year lows with barely positive comp growth and net insider selling of $14.8M over 24 months is not yet a compelling entry — the setup needs evidence of same-store sales reacceleration before turning constructive.
What could go wrong
- Same-store sales stagnation persists. Q3 2026 U.S. comp growth of 0.3% and international of 0.2% suggest the value proposition is under pressure; if this persists, margin expansion alone cannot sustain EPS growth.
- High leverage with negative equity. Total debt of $5.23B against negative stockholders' equity of -$3.9B as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility and amplifies risk if conditions worsen.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 41,576 shares for $14.8M with zero open-market acquisitions; recent CEO share activity was a grant (code A), not an open-market purchase.
- Downtrend intact. Stock at $310.90 trades below both the 50-day ($325.96) and 200-day ($350.01) moving averages as of 12 Oct, indicating sustained bearish momentum.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison, 12 Oct · earnings vs estimates, 13 Oct · news, 13 Oct · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on DPZ; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 24.4% over twelve months, from $412.70 on 27 Oct 2025 to $312.03 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $438.42 on 17 Dec 2025; the last close is 28.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.1M, on 27 Apr 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All DPZ filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Soroban Capital Partners | $786.9M | 1.6% |
| BlackRock | $715.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $616.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $595.8M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $451.5M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $386.6M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $373.4M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $341.5M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $284.3M | 0.0% |
85 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 160 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$14.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about DPZ
Orin answers questions about DPZ from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 27.4×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NASDAQ is at 82.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.1×below usual | 27.4× | 82.5× |
| P/S | 2.03×below usual | 3.10× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.8×below usual | 20.6× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $353 (from $320 to $430) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$353
$320 – $430 · +13% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.1× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (YUM 18.7×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc. | $10B | 17.1× | 14.8× | 40.0% | 12.0% | n/m |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | $41B | 18.7× | 17.8× | 45.8% | 25.4% | n/m |
- DPZ, YUM: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 82.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now82.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $335 a share — 8% above the $310.52 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $335 | 8% above $310.52 |
| Levered | $236 | 24% below $310.52 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.