Ecolab Inc. ECL
Operating margin expansion to 18.11% in FY2025 from 16.6% in FY2024, the $4.75B CoolIT acquisition opening AI data-center cooling exposure, and a raised 2026 outlook have driven a 12.2% three-month rally — but at 38.3x trailing P/E (63.3% above the peer median of 23.4x) and 26.8x EV/EBITDA (87.2% above peers), the stock prices in near-flawless execution while FY2025 EPS dipped to $7.28 from $7.37 and total debt climbed to $9.43B from $8.28B. With smart money at a modest 0.1338 score as of Q2 2026 and the CEO selling 17,862 shares at $280.14 on Aug 18, 2026, the risk/reward is balanced; hold for evidence that CoolIT integration and debt management justify the premium or for a valuation pullback.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. At 38.3x P/E and 26.8x EV/EBITDA — 63.3% and 87.2% above the peer median respectively — any earnings disappointment or guidance cut could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Debt burden. Total debt rose to $9.43B in FY2025 from $8.28B in FY2024, and the $4.75B CoolIT acquisition adds further financing costs that could pressure net income, which already declined -1.74% in FY2025.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Revenue growth slowed to 2.16% in FY2025 from 2.75% in FY2024 and 7.98% in FY2023, and a premium multiple requires sustained acceleration to justify it.
- Insider selling. Recent open-market sales by the CEO (17,862 shares at $280.14), Co-COO (4,567 shares at $285.13), and CFO (3,357 shares at $276.96) in August 2026 signal limited insider conviction at current levels despite net buying of $6,222,783.98 over 24 months.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · Zacks news article 2026-08-18 · Zacks news article 2026-08-18 · FMP peer_relative. Orin's read on ECL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ECL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Brasada Capital Management | $9.5B | 1.7% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $4.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $3.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
109 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 210 Form 4 filings, net $7.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ECL
Orin answers questions about ECL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 36.7× | 38.0× | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.8× | 21.2× | — |
| P/S | 4.60× | 4.23× | — |
| P/B | 7.7× | 7.6× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.47σ from its own mean).
17.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$326
$275 – $360 · +18% against today's price
- 29 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECLEcolab Inc. | $77B | 36.7× | 25.8× | 44.1% | 12.6% | 21% |
| APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc. | $63B | — | 62.1× | 32.1% | -0.4% | -0% |
| CRHCRH plc | $56B | 18.9× | 12.6× | 39.4% | 13.7% | 14% |
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | $104B | 35.5× | 12.2× | 26.8% | 11.4% | 15% |
| HWKNHawkins, Inc. | $3B | 32.6× | 16.6× | 22.3% | 7.3% | 15% |
| NEMNewmont Corporation | $128B | 15.3× | 8.6× | 54.5% | 38.1% | 25% |
| SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company | $78B | 29.3× | 20.6× | 49.1% | 11.0% | 62% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 25.5% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $222 | $258.57 · −14% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $182 | $258.57 · −30% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.