Ecolab Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Ecolab's top-line has reaccelerated meaningfully, with Q1 and Q2 2026 revenue up 10.0% and 9.7% YoY respectively, far above FY2025's 2.2% full-year growth, and operating margin expanded to 18.1% in FY2025 from 16.6% in FY2024.
However, the stock trades at 37.9x trailing P/E — a 60% premium to the peer median of 23.7x — and 24.6x EV/EBITDA (39% above peers), already discounting sustained double-digit growth and continued margin expansion. FY2025 EPS actually declined to $7.28 from $7.37, total debt rose to $9.43B from $8.28B, and smart money is essentially flat at -0.00 as of Q2 2026, so the risk/reward remains balanced; hold pending Q3 2026 results on October 27 for confirmation that the growth reacceleration justifies the premium multiple.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 37.9x P/E and 24.6x EV/EBITDA — 60% and 39% above peer medians respectively — any deceleration in revenue growth or margin progress could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Leverage rising. Total debt increased to $9.43B in FY2025 from $8.28B in FY2024 while EPS declined, raising financial risk if growth disappoints.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 98,155 shares for $27.4M, with only small grant-based acquisitions recently; no cluster buying signals conviction from management.
- EPS growth lagging revenue. Despite revenue growth reaccelerating to ~10% in H1 2026, FY2025 EPS fell to $7.28 from $7.37, and earnings surprises have been marginal (under 0.5%), suggesting cost pressures or mix issues could cap bottom-line leverage.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q1–Q2 FY26 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · 13F holdings, 30 Jun. Orin's read on ECL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 4.1% over twelve months, from $279.71 on 27 Oct 2025 to $291.27 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $308.35 on 27 Feb 2026; the last close is 5.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.4M, on 16 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ECL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.6B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $4.1B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $3.3B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Gates Foundation Trust | $1.5B | 4.2% |
| Royal Bank of Canada | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $933.6M | 0.1% |
112 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 225 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$27.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ECL
Orin answers questions about ECL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 39.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 38.0×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 39.3×near usual | 38.0× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 4.70×above usual | 4.23× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.1×above usual | 21.2× | — |
| P/B | 7.8×near usual | 7.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $326 (from $275 to $360) — 12% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$326
$275 – $360 · +12% against the last close
- 16 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 39.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 27.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECLEcolab Inc. | $82B | 39.3× | 26.1× | 32.0% | 12.0% | 21% |
| CECOCECO Environmental Corp. | $3B | lost money | 130× | 32.7% | −3.0% | −4% |
| CLHClean Harbors, Inc. | $17B | 37.8× | 15.8× | 26.6% | 7.0% | 16% |
| CLXThe Clorox Company | $11B | 18.1× | 13.6× | 42.3% | 8.7% | n/m |
| CTASCintas Corporation | $85B | 41.9× | 27.3× | 51.0% | 17.8% | 42% |
| GFLGFL Environmental Inc. | $16B | lost money | 17.6× | 20.0% | −3.3% | −3% |
| PGThe Procter & Gamble Company | $369B | 23.6× | 16.0× | 49.8% | 18.2% | 30% |
| VLTOVeralto Corporation | $25B | 25.9× | 19.0× | 60.2% | 17.3% | 33% |
| ZWSZurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | $8B | 28.2× | 21.1× | 47.1% | 16.3% | 18% |
- CECO, GFL: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- CLX: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 39.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now39.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $191 a share — 35% below the $293.83 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $191 | 35% below $293.83 |
| Levered | $159 | 46% below $293.83 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.