EQT Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
EQT Corporation remains attractively valued at 11.96x trailing P/E — a 23.5% discount to the peer median of 15.62 — following a transformative FY2025 in which revenue grew 73.7% to $9.07B, FCF margin reached 31.3%, and total debt was cut to $7.80B.
The stock has recovered to $54.42 as of 19 Oct, reclaiming the 50-day MA at $52.96 with a bullish MACD histogram of 0.41, and the board just raised the quarterly dividend 3% to $0.17 per share. However, Q2 2026 revenue fell 29.2% YoY to $1.81B with a 5.4% EPS miss, the stock still trades below its 200-day MA of $55.45, and CEO Toby Rice sold 175,328 shares at $55.03 in August 2026 — the picture is improving but unconfirmed, warranting a hold until Q3 2026 results clarify whether the quarterly downturn was transient or the start of a trend.
What could go wrong
- Natural gas price volatility. Q2 2026 revenue collapsed 29.2% YoY to $1.81B from $2.56B in Q2 2025, and EPS missed estimates by 5.4%, demonstrating EQT's acute sensitivity to gas price swings that could persist into H2 2026.
- Insider distribution signal. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 429,785 shares for $24.3M, with CEO Toby Rice alone selling 175,328 shares at $55.03 on 14 Aug; no open-market cluster buys have occurred.
- Technical overhead resistance. The stock at $54.42 remains below its 200-day MA of $55.45 and has faced 'historically bearish resistance' per Schaeffers Research, with a 52-week high of $68.24 suggesting significant overhead supply.
- Dividend sustainability pressure. The newly raised $0.17 quarterly dividend faces scrutiny as 24/7 Wall Street questions whether natural gas cash flow can hold up, especially with buybacks competing for capital allocation priority.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 21 Jul. Orin's read on EQT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 4.7% over twelve months, from $53.75 on 27 Oct 2025 to $56.27 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $67.93 on 25 Mar 2026; the last close is 17.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 27.3M, on 26 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All EQT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.2B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.2B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.2B | 0.2% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $901.9M | 0.0% |
| Eagle Capital Management | $816.5M | 2.5% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $782.9M | 0.1% |
105 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 143 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$24.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EQT
Orin answers questions about EQT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 12.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.4× | — | 17.6× |
| P/S | 3.82×above usual | 2.90× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.4×above usual | 1.1× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 7.1× to 102× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 3.9× to 29.3× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $66.75 (from $54 to $75) — 19% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$66.75
$54 – $75 · +19% against the last close
- 15 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 12.4× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (COP 14.2×, DVN 10.1×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQTEQT Corporation | $35B | 12.4× | 6.0× | 80.1% | 30.9% | 11% |
| COPConocoPhillips | $163B | 14.2× | 5.8× | 34.7% | 17.1% | 18% |
| DVNDevon Energy Corporation | $47B | 10.1× | 6.6× | 34.0% | 16.7% | 15% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 12.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now12.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $187 a share — 241% above the $55.03 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $187 | 241% above $55.03 |
| Levered | $203 | 269% above $55.03 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.