EQT Corporation EQT
EQT Corporation's FY2025 was transformative — revenue surged 73.7% to $9.07B, FCF margin reached 31.27%, and total debt was cut by $1.57B to $7.80B — yet the stock still trades at a 23% P/E discount and 16% EV/EBITDA discount to peer medians, making it the cheapest large-cap gas name on quality. Structural tailwinds from LNG supply disruptions, data center power demand, and approximately $307M of net insider accumulation over 24 months reinforce the bullish case, though the stock's position below its 200-day MA ($56.27) and fading smart money scores (from 0.0601 to 0.0379 over two quarters) warrant patience on entry.
What could go wrong
- Gas price exposure. EQT is a pure-play natural gas producer; a sustained decline in Henry Hub prices would compress the strong margins achieved in FY2025 (operating margin 34.7%).
- Technical overhead. Stock remains below its 200-day MA ($56.27) as of 2026-08-28, and smart money scores have declined for two consecutive quarters with fund count dropping from 66 to 61.
- Execution risk on growth platforms. EQT's positioning for data center, power, and global LNG demand is early-stage; news coverage notes 'execution risks cloud the near term.'
- Valuation optics. P/S of 3.68 sits 32.5% above the peer median of 2.77, suggesting the market questions revenue quality despite discounted P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 fundamentals · derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative · insider 24-month summary. Orin's read on EQT; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All EQT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Brasada Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.8% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $1.2B | 0.2% of fund |
102 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 141 Form 4 filings, net $306.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about EQT
Orin answers questions about EQT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.2× | — | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1× | 7.0× | — |
| P/S | 3.44× | 2.90× | — |
| P/B | 1.3× | 1.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.37σ from its own mean).
-0.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$70
$66 – $73 · +39% against today's price
- 30 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQTEQT Corporation | $32B | 11.2× | 6.1× | 68.4% | 30.7% | 12% |
| CTRACoterra Energy Inc. | $25B | 14.8× | 5.7× | 39.0% | 21.7% | 11% |
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | $20B | 7.5× | 3.5× | 63.1% | 20.8% | 15% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | $52B | 36.3× | 9.0× | 44.5% | 9.3% | 4% |
| OKEONEOK, Inc. | $57B | 15.6× | 11.4× | 21.8% | 9.3% | 16% |
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | $57B | 8.6× | 4.8× | 43.4% | 28.8% | 19% |
| TRGPTarga Resources Corp. | $61B | 26.9× | 16.8× | 36.6% | 13.5% | 72% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 26.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $241 | $53.40 · +352% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $261 | $53.40 · +388% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.