Eversource Energy ES
Eversource Energy trades at a discount to regulated-utility peers—18.6x P/E vs. a 20.5x median and 10.1x EV/EBITDA vs. 12.7x—reflecting investor concern over $30.3B of total debt against $16.2B equity and persistent negative free cash flow, even as FY2025 showed meaningful recovery with EPS of $4.56 and FCF improving to near-breakeven at -$45M. Q2 2026 results underscored transition risk: GAAP EPS collapsed to $0.14 on Aquarion Water sale charges and offshore-wind contingent liabilities, while adjusted EPS of $0.87 narrowly missed the $0.88 consensus.
The Aquarion divestiture and offshore-wind resolution could be clearing events that unlock the valuation gap, but until deleveraging is visible and core regulated earnings reaccelerate without one-time charges, the discount appears warranted.
What could go wrong
- Leverage burden. Total debt of $30.3B against $16.2B equity as of FY2025 constrains financial flexibility and could pressure credit metrics if capex remains elevated.
- Persistent negative FCF. Free cash flow has been negative for five consecutive fiscal years, with FY2025 FCF at -$45M despite improvement from -$2.32B in FY2024, requiring continued external financing.
- Execution risk on investment plan. The $26.5B investment plan through 2030 targets grid upgrades and transmission growth; cost overruns or adverse rate-case outcomes could erode regulated returns.
- Insider dispositions. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold approximately $8.77M in shares, with recent EVP sales in August 2026 at $71.10–$71.50 per share.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025 · news (Zacks, MarketBeat) · news (MarketBeat earnings call highlights). Orin's read on ES; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ES filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $831.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $772.2M | 0.3% of fund |
| Fmr | $690.8M | 0.0% of fund |
87 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 66 Form 4 filings, net −$8.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 12 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ES
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.5× | — | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6× | 12.3× | — |
| P/S | 1.71× | 1.84× | — |
| P/B | 1.5× | 1.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.32σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$74
$72 – $76 · +17% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESEversource Energy | $24B | 16.5× | 9.6× | 35.2% | 10.4% | 9% |
| AEEAmeren Corporation | $27B | 17.3× | 11.8× | 41.1% | 17.9% | 12% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $20B | 18.6× | 12.4× | 69.7% | 11.6% | 11% |
| CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $24B | 21.7× | 12.3× | 54.1% | 11.6% | 10% |
| DTEDTE Energy Company | $25B | 19.0× | 12.4× | 36.7% | 8.1% | 11% |
| EDConsolidated Edison, Inc. | $38B | 16.8× | 9.9× | 76.0% | 12.5% | 9% |
| EIXEdison International | $20B | 5.4× | 8.1× | 39.9% | 19.8% | 22% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $46B | 24.8× | 13.7× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| EXCExelon Corporation | $41B | 14.7× | 10.2× | 24.5% | 11.0% | 10% |
| FEFirstEnergy Corp. | $25B | 23.0× | 11.5× | 53.4% | 6.9% | 9% |
| LNTAlliant Energy Corporation | $16B | 20.0× | 13.7× | 42.0% | 18.4% | 11% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $33B | 16.5× | 13.2× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| PNWPinnacle West Capital Corporation | $11B | 17.1× | 10.3× | 55.5% | 11.5% | 9% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $43B | 19.0× | 12.5× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
The median is of the 13 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 11.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-45 | $69.97 · −165% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-18 | $69.97 · −125% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.