Orin
ESNYSE·Regulated Electric

Eversource Energy ES

Market cap $23.8BP/E 16.5× trailingGross margin 35.2%Reports Tue 3 Nov, after the close
$63.28
−0.52 (−0.82%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $63.17 – $76.57
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 26 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Eversource Energy trades at a discount to regulated-utility peers—18.6x P/E vs. a 20.5x median and 10.1x EV/EBITDA vs. 12.7x—reflecting investor concern over $30.3B of total debt against $16.2B equity and persistent negative free cash flow, even as FY2025 showed meaningful recovery with EPS of $4.56 and FCF improving to near-breakeven at -$45M. Q2 2026 results underscored transition risk: GAAP EPS collapsed to $0.14 on Aquarion Water sale charges and offshore-wind contingent liabilities, while adjusted EPS of $0.87 narrowly missed the $0.88 consensus.

The Aquarion divestiture and offshore-wind resolution could be clearing events that unlock the valuation gap, but until deleveraging is visible and core regulated earnings reaccelerate without one-time charges, the discount appears warranted.

What could go wrong

  • Leverage burden. Total debt of $30.3B against $16.2B equity as of FY2025 constrains financial flexibility and could pressure credit metrics if capex remains elevated.
  • Persistent negative FCF. Free cash flow has been negative for five consecutive fiscal years, with FY2025 FCF at -$45M despite improvement from -$2.32B in FY2024, requiring continued external financing.
  • Execution risk on investment plan. The $26.5B investment plan through 2030 targets grid upgrades and transmission growth; cost overruns or adverse rate-case outcomes could erode regulated returns.
  • Insider dispositions. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold approximately $8.77M in shares, with recent EVP sales in August 2026 at $71.10–$71.50 per share.

What would change my mind

Deleveraging visible in balance sheet. Total debt declines materially from $30.3B with debt-to-equity improving below current levels in a coming 10-Qbullish
Core regulated EPS reacceleration. Quarterly adjusted EPS meets or exceeds consensus without one-time charges for two consecutive quartersbullish
Further charges or writedowns. Additional non-recurring charges beyond Aquarion and offshore-wind items appear in Q3 or Q4 2026 resultsbearish
Adverse rate-case outcomes. Regulators in Connecticut or Massachusetts deny or materially reduce requested rate increases tied to the $26.5B investment planbearish

Where this comes from: peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025 · news (Zacks, MarketBeat) · news (MarketBeat earnings call highlights). Orin's read on ES; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
State Street$2.1B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.8B0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.5B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$831.2M0.0% of fund
Aqr Capital Management$772.2M0.3% of fund
Fmr$690.8M0.0% of fund

87 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 66 Form 4 filings, net −$8.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 12 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Utilities
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E16.5×—25.9×
EV/EBITDA9.6×12.3×—
P/S1.71×1.84×—
P/B1.5×1.5×—

Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.32σ from its own mean).

What Wall Street published

29 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$74

$72 – $76 · +17% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 9 buy or overweight
  • 16 hold
  • 4 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 18.6× of 13 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
ESEversource Energy$24B16.5×9.6×35.2%10.4%9%
AEEAmeren Corporation$27B17.3×11.8×41.1%17.9%12%
CMSCMS Energy Corporation$20B18.6×12.4×69.7%11.6%11%
CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc.$24B21.7×12.3×54.1%11.6%10%
DTEDTE Energy Company$25B19.0×12.4×36.7%8.1%11%
EDConsolidated Edison, Inc.$38B16.8×9.9×76.0%12.5%9%
EIXEdison International$20B5.4×8.1×39.9%19.8%22%
ETREntergy Corporation$46B24.8×13.7×38.9%13.5%10%
EXCExelon Corporation$41B14.7×10.2×24.5%11.0%10%
FEFirstEnergy Corp.$25B23.0×11.5×53.4%6.9%9%
LNTAlliant Energy Corporation$16B20.0×13.7×42.0%18.4%11%
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated$33B16.5×13.2×85.4%16.0%12%
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corporation$11B17.1×10.3×55.5%11.5%9%
XELXcel Energy Inc.$43B19.0×12.5×48.8%15.3%10%

The median is of the 13 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 11.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 20.7×FY25 14.8×

What its sector has traded at

Utilities
FY14 14.0×FY26 27.4×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$-45$69.97 · −165%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$-18$69.97 · −125%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $63.28
52-week range$63 – $77
Analyst targets$72 – $76
Standard DCF$-45 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $69.97
Levered DCF$-18 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $69.97
At own 5y-median P/E (21×)$80
At 5y P/E range (-49–26×)$-188 – $99
At sector P/E (26×)$100

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.