GE Aerospace
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
GE Aerospace continues to execute at a high level — Q3 2026 EPS of $2.25 beat the $2.01 consensus by nearly 12%, extending the streak of eight consecutive EPS beats, while Q2 2026 revenue grew 21.1% YoY to $13.35B and FY2025 operating margin expanded to 19.1% with $7.26B in free cash flow.
However, the stock trades at 6.14x sales (66% above peer median) and 26.6x EV/EBITDA (36% above peer median), and the last close of $311.28 sits below both the 50-day ($329.26) and 200-day ($323.85) moving averages with RSI at 44.1, a technically weak profile into an earnings cycle where Wall Street already expects another guidance raise. Net insider selling of approximately $24.4M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions reinforces the case for patience rather than chasing at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Premium valuation compression. At 6.14x sales and 26.6x EV/EBITDA — 66% and 36% above peer medians respectively — any growth deceleration or guidance miss could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Supply chain and cost headwinds. Recent news coverage highlights supply and cost headwinds against the $200B backlog, which could pressure margin expansion if material costs escalate.
- Insider selling signal. Over the past 24 months, insiders have net sold approximately $24.4M in shares with zero open-market acquisitions, suggesting limited insider conviction at current prices.
- Technical breakdown risk. The stock is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI at 44.1; a sustained break below the 200-day MA at $323.85 could accelerate selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates, 20 Oct · Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on GE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 4.9% over twelve months, from $312.84 on 27 Oct 2025 to $297.66 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $381.22 on 5 Aug 2026; the last close is 21.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 13.9M, on 22 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All GE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $33.3B | 0.5% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $25.5B | 0.5% |
| FMR | $18.3B | 0.8% |
| State Street | $17.4B | 0.5% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $11.6B | 1.6% |
| Geode Capital Management | $9.3B | 0.5% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $7.7B | 0.8% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $6.3B | 0.3% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $6.1B | 0.3% |
| Capital World Investors | $5.9B | 0.7% |
173 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 134 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$24.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GE
Orin answers questions about GE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 34.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 34.2× | — | 33.7× |
| P/S | 5.87× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.9× | — | — |
| P/B | 17.6× | — | — |
- Until April 2024 this company was the General Electric conglomerate; it then spun off GE Vernova, after GE HealthCare in 2023. Earlier figures include them, so they are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $385 (from $350 to $425) — 29% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$385
$350 – $425 · +29% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 34.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 32.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEGE Aerospace | $309B | 34.2× | 24.9× | 35.2% | 17.3% | 51% |
| MOG-AMoog Inc. | $11B | 29.7× | 19.8× | 27.9% | 8.7% | 18% |
| RTXRTX Corporation | $263B | 31.2× | 17.4× | 21.1% | 8.9% | 13% |
| TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated | $62B | 34.3× | 18.4× | 59.6% | 21.3% | n/m |
| WWDWoodward, Inc. | $18B | 32.9× | 22.0× | 29.5% | 13.2% | 22% |
- TDG: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 34.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now34.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $58 a share — 81% below the $297.29 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $58 | 81% below $297.29 |
| Levered | $51 | 83% below $297.29 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.