GE Aerospace GE
GE Aerospace's fundamental execution remains best-in-class: FY2025 revenue grew 18.5% to $45.9B with operating margin expansion to 19.1% and FCF of $7.26B, while management raised FY2026 guidance to $7.65–$7.85 EPS and $8.9–$9.2B FCF per recent news. However, the stock still trades at 40.2x earnings (21% above peer median), 7.0x sales (189% above peer median), and 30x EV/EBITDA (53% above peer median), leaving little margin of safety despite a pullback from $365 to $342.58 as of 2026-08-28.
Technicals have deteriorated with the stock below its 50-day MA ($360) and a bearish MACD histogram of -2.81, while insiders remain net sellers at -$84.3M over 24 months; the combination of full valuation and weakening near-term momentum keeps this a hold.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 40.2x P/E and 7.0x P/S — 21% and 189% above peer medians respectively — any deceleration in growth or margin could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Insider selling. Insiders have been net sellers with -$84.3M in net value over 24 months across 131 transactions, including recent VP-level sales at ~$370 in August 2026.
- Technical breakdown. Stock has fallen below its 50-day MA of $360 to $342.58 with RSI at 41.7 and MACD histogram at -2.81, suggesting near-term downside risk toward the 200-day MA at $320.6.
- Cost pressure on margins. Recent news highlights inflation and growth investment pressures on profitability; FY2025 gross margin of 36.8% already contracted from 37.2% in FY2024.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-28 · insider summary 24-month window. Orin's read on GE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $25.5B | 0.5% of fund |
| Fmr | $18.3B | 0.8% of fund |
| State Street | $17.4B | 0.5% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $11.6B | 1.6% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $9.3B | 0.5% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $7.7B | 0.8% of fund |
170 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 131 Form 4 filings, net −$84.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GE
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 37.5× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.0× | — | — |
| P/S | 6.55× | 3.14× | — |
| P/B | 18.8× | 4.0× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.16σ from its own mean).
19.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $7.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$410
$350 – $450 · +28% against today's price
- 24 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEGE Aerospace | $332B | 37.5× | 28.0× | 35.4% | 17.7% | 49% |
| BAThe Boeing Company | $158B | 74.9× | 28.3× | 4.7% | 2.6% | 105% |
| CATCaterpillar Inc. | $374B | 34.8× | 23.7× | 33.9% | 14.5% | 54% |
| DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc. | $10B | 31.2× | 21.0× | 24.9% | 8.5% | 12% |
| GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation | $93B | 20.6× | 15.2× | 15.4% | 8.2% | 17% |
| LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $45B | 24.0× | 14.6× | 25.5% | 8.2% | 9% |
| LMTLockheed Martin Corporation | $121B | 19.3× | 14.0× | 11.8% | 8.2% | 86% |
| NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation | $73B | 16.3× | 11.7× | 20.1% | 10.5% | 27% |
| RTXRTX Corporation | $259B | 33.4× | 18.0× | 20.3% | 8.3% | 12% |
| TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated | $62B | 33.5× | 18.6× | 59.6% | 21.3% | -21% |
| WWDWoodward, Inc. | $19B | 35.3× | 23.7× | 29.5% | 13.2% | 22% |
The median is of the 10 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 16.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $63 | $321.41 · −80% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $56 | $321.41 · −83% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.