General Mills, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
General Mills remains a hold at $31.77 (as of 7 Oct) despite the stock's further ~11% decline from the prior hold call at $35.82, as oversold technicals (RSI 28.6) are counterbalanced by FY2026's net loss of $87.6M and a devastating Q4 FY2026 net loss of $2.0B that signal deep structural impairment.
Q1 FY2027 (ended 30 Aug) showed tentative stabilization with $397M net income and EPS of $0.74 beating estimates, but revenue still fell 2.8% YoY, extending three consecutive years of top-line decline. The CEO transition to Dana McNabb and active debt management via tender offers for senior notes are constructive steps, but with total debt at $13.5B against equity of just $7.4B and gross margin compressing to 33.5%, sustained evidence of revenue stabilization and margin recovery is required before turning constructive.
What could go wrong
- Revenue trajectory. Revenue has declined YoY for three consecutive fiscal years, from $20.1B in FY2023 to $18.4B in FY2026, and Q1 FY2027 still showed a 2.8% YoY decline; further deterioration would pressure the equity case.
- Leverage and balance sheet. Total debt of $13.5B against stockholders' equity of $7.4B (FY2026) leaves limited cushion; the Q4 FY2026 $2.0B loss may have included impairments that further eroded equity.
- Leadership transition execution. New CEO Dana McNabb succeeds Jeff Harmening amid declining profitability; execution missteps or strategic drift during the transition could delay recovery.
- Dividend sustainability. Recent news coverage questions the dividend story across packaged foods; with FY2026 FCF margin falling to 8.8% from 11.8% in FY2025, dividend coverage is tightening.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · quarterly results · technicals, 7 Oct · news, 30 Sep. Orin's read on GIS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 30.7% over twelve months, from $48.29 on 27 Oct 2025 to $33.47 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $49.01 on 11 Feb 2026; the last close is 31.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 28.2M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All GIS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.2B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $928.1M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $628.1M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $555.5M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $522.2M | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $431.4M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $372.3M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $313.3M | 0.0% |
104 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 217 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GIS
Orin answers questions about GIS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 0.98× its yearly sales — below its usual level (1.98×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 15.7× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 0.98×below usual | 1.98× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.3×below usual | 12.8× | — |
| P/B | 2.4×below usual | 4.0× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $35.64 (from $30 to $43) — 6% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$35.64
$30 – $43 · +6% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GISGeneral Mills, Inc. | $18B | lost money | 9.3× | 33.6% | −4.9% | −11% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | $7B | lost money | n/m | 23.8% | −17.0% | −26% |
| CPBCampbell Soup Company | $6B | 15.4× | 10.1× | 28.1% | 4.1% | 10% |
| HRLHormel Foods Corporation | $11B | 33.1× | 15.5× | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4% |
| HSYThe Hershey Company | $33B | 22.3× | 14.5× | 38.1% | 12.2% | 32% |
| KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company | $30B | lost money | n/m | 33.5% | −14.0% | −9% |
| MKCMcCormick & Company, Incorporated | $13B | 8.6× | 12.5× | 39.1% | 19.4% | 22% |
| SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company | $14B | 59.3× | 15.3× | 38.7% | 2.5% | 4% |
- CAG, KHC: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- CAG, KHC: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $69 a share — 106% above the $33.26 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $69 | 106% above $33.26 |
| Levered | $76 | 130% above $33.26 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.