General Mills, Inc. GIS
General Mills is a hold after the stock's pullback to $35.82 (as of 2026-09-23) has largely corrected the overvaluation that drove the prior sell call at $41.55. Q1 FY2027 results (quarter ended 2026-08-30) showed turnaround progress with $397M net income (EPS $0.74) beating estimates and the company reaffirming its full-year outlook, though revenue still declined 2.83% YoY.
With the stock trading below both its 50-day ($37.78) and 200-day ($39.26) moving averages and P/S (1.03x) roughly in line with the peer median (0.98x), the risk/reward is now balanced rather than compelling. Evidence of revenue stabilization and debt reduction from the current $13.5B is needed before turning constructive on a name still recovering from FY2026's $87.6M net loss.
What could go wrong
- Revenue erosion persists. Q1 FY2027 revenue fell 2.83% YoY to $4.39B and FY2026 revenue declined 5.45%, suggesting structural demand weakness rather than a cyclical dip.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt stood at $13.5B at FY2026 year-end against stockholders' equity of $7.37B, limiting financial flexibility for buybacks or reinvestment.
- Input-cost pressure. Management cited continued input-cost pressure in Q1 results despite early cost-savings progress; gross margin already compressed to 33.49% in FY2026 from 34.55% in FY2025.
- Consumption headwinds. UBS reiterated a Sell rating citing weak consumption and rising input costs, with its FY2027 EPS estimate of $3.01 below the Street's $3.08.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results (period ended 2026-08-30) · fundamentals FY2026 (period ended 2026-05-31) · technicals (as of 2026-09-23) · peer_relative (as of 2026-09-23). Orin's read on GIS; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GIS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $928.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $628.1M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $555.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $522.2M | 0.2% of fund |
101 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 205 Form 4 filings, net $65.7M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GIS
Orin answers questions about GIS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 10.7× | 12.9× | — |
| P/S | 1.04× | 2.13× | — |
| P/B | 2.6× | 4.1× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−18.43σ from its own mean).
0.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$36
$31 – $43 · +1% against today's price
- 8 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GISGeneral Mills, Inc. | $19B | — | 10.7× | 33.4% | -4.9% | -11% |
| ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Company | $40B | 22.5× | 8.9× | 6.9% | 2.2% | 8% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | $7B | — | — | 23.9% | -17.0% | -24% |
| DGDollar General Corporation | $27B | 15.6× | 12.5× | 31.2% | 3.9% | 20% |
| HRLHormel Foods Corporation | $11B | 31.6× | 14.9× | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4% |
| KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company | $28B | — | — | 32.8% | -13.6% | -8% |
| MKCMcCormick & Company, Incorporated | $13B | 8.2× | 13.0× | 38.6% | 22.0% | 26% |
| STZConstellation Brands, Inc. | $20B | 11.1× | 9.2× | 52.6% | 20.1% | 23% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $108 | $33.98 · +217% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $94 | $33.98 · +177% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.