Alphabet Inc. GOOGL
Alphabet's FY2025 results — 15% revenue growth to $403B and 34% diluted EPS growth to $10.81 — combined with a 17.2x P/E that sits 41% below the peer median of 29.3x, create a compelling growth-at-a-discount asymmetry that the market has yet to fully re-rate. Smart money scores flipped from -0.58 in Q1 2026 to +1.45 in Q2 2026, signaling accelerating institutional accumulation into the current quarter.
While CapEx nearly doubled to $91.4B and total debt rose from $25.5B to $59.3B, these investments fund Google Cloud's $514B backlog and the broader AI infrastructure buildout; FCF of $73.3B remains robust and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average of $334.57 as of 2026-08-28.
What could go wrong
- CapEx surge compressing FCF margin. FCF margin fell to 18.2% in FY2025 from 20.8% in FY2024 as CapEx nearly doubled to $91.4B; if AI monetization lags the spend cycle, free cash flow returns could deteriorate further.
- Regulatory and legal overhang. Meta's $18B settlement in the social media addiction trial has shifted focus to YouTube and TikTok, increasing the risk of direct litigation or regulatory action against Alphabet's platforms.
- Persistent net insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold approximately 6.0M shares worth $575M across 644 transactions (439 dispositions vs 205 acquisitions), though recent August 2026 activity reflects routine equity-award conversions rather than open-market dispositions.
- Rising leverage. Total debt more than doubled from $25.5B in FY2024 to $59.3B in FY2025 to fund the AI infrastructure buildout; if Cloud revenue growth disappoints, debt service could become a meaningful drag.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual; derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative composite · smart_money 13F composite as of 2026-06-30 · FMP FY2025 vs FY2024 annual. Orin's read on GOOGL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GOOGL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $136.9B | 2.9% of fund |
| Fmr | $89.6B | 3.9% of fund |
| State Street | $85.4B | 2.5% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $53.5B | 2.9% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $43.1B | 2.3% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $36.2B | 3.6% of fund |
288 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 694 Form 4 filings, net −$574.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GOOGL
Orin answers questions about GOOGL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.6× | 23.9× | 26.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.7× | 18.0× | — |
| P/S | 9.12× | 6.66× | — |
| P/B | 6.4× | 7.2× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.43σ from its own mean).
21.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $73.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$432
$350 – $485 · +28% against today's price
- 72 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGLAlphabet Inc. | $4.09T | 16.6× | 12.7× | 60.9% | 54.8% | 51% |
| AAPLApple Inc. | $4.95T | 38.5× | 29.6× | 48.7% | 27.6% | 137% |
| AVGOBroadcom Inc. | $1.69T | 44.0× | 33.0× | 67.7% | 42.9% | 44% |
| CSCOCisco Systems, Inc. | $419B | 31.7× | 22.1× | 64.5% | 21.0% | 27% |
| FLEXFlex Ltd. | $41B | 43.4× | 23.4× | 9.5% | 3.3% | 19% |
| GRMNGarmin Ltd. | $55B | 29.5× | 22.1× | 60.1% | 24.5% | 21% |
| METAMeta Platforms, Inc. | $1.90T | 27.7× | 18.6× | 81.7% | 29.8% | 30% |
| MSFTMicrosoft Corporation | $3.72T | 27.8× | 18.4× | 67.9% | 40.3% | 33% |
| NVDANVIDIA Corporation | $5.47T | 28.4× | 23.5× | 74.7% | 63.7% | 110% |
| TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | $2.32T | 29.0× | 19.2× | 64.2% | 50.4% | 39% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 43.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $131 | $356.71 · −63% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $170 | $356.71 · −52% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.