Orin
GRMNNYSE·Hardware, Equipment & Parts

Garmin Ltd. GRMN

Market cap $56.8BP/E 30.2× trailingGross margin 60.1%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$294.30
−0.74 (−0.25%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $186.67 – $314.28
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Orin's take
0.63conviction · moderate
Refreshed 2 Sep · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Garmin's Q2 2026 results reinforce a durable growth story — revenue of $2.02B grew 11.4% YoY and EPS of $2.80 beat estimates by 22%, marking the fourth beat in the last five quarters. The stock's pullback from $310.20 to $275.17 has reset technically extended conditions, with RSI at 39.1 versus 73.7 previously, while a 28.2x P/E trades at an 8.7% discount to the peer median of 30.9x.

A fortress balance sheet — $196M total debt against $1.36B FY2025 free cash flow and a 25.9% operating margin — supports accumulation at these levels, though decelerating top-line growth and persistent insider selling of 3.71M net shares over 24 months temper conviction.

What could go wrong

  • Revenue growth deceleration. YoY revenue growth slowed from 20.4% in Q2 2025 to 11.4% in Q2 2026, suggesting the post-pandemic wearable and fitness boom may be maturing.
  • Persistent insider selling. Insiders net sold 3.71M shares worth $38.7M over the past 24 months, with the General Manager liquidating $3M as recently as August 2026.
  • Institutional disinterest. Smart money score sits at just 0.0127 as of Q2 2026, down from 0.037 in Q3 2025, with fund count declining to 58 from 60.
  • Bearish near-term momentum. MACD histogram at -4.65 with the signal line above the MACD line, and the stock only 1.9% above its 50-day MA of $270.14, leave it vulnerable to a deeper correction.

What would change my mind

Q3 2026 earnings reacceleration. Q3 2026 revenue growth exceeds 15% YoY or EPS beats consensus by more than 15%bullish
200-day MA breach. Stock closes below $237.11 (200-day moving average)bearish
Insider cluster buying. Multiple insiders accumulate shares within a 30-day window after a prolonged selling streakbullish
Smart money score collapse. Smart money score turns negative or fund count drops below 50bearish

Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q2 FY2026 · earnings_surprises Q2 FY2026 · peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025 / derived_metrics FY2025. Orin's read on GRMN; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$2.5B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.9B0.1% of fund
State Street$1.7B0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$1.2B0.1% of fund
Fmr$805.9M0.0% of fund
Norges Bank$471.9M0.0% of fund

81 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 230 Form 4 filings, net −$38.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 15 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E30.2×23.8×53.3×
EV/EBITDA22.7×18.1×—
P/S7.41×5.25×—
P/B6.3×4.3×—

Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.00σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

17.7%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

28 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$320

$289 – $370 · +9% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 6 buy or overweight
  • 20 hold
  • 2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 33.9× of 8 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
GRMNGarmin Ltd.$57B30.2×22.7×60.1%24.5%21%
CLSCelestica Inc.$43B38.4×28.7×12.0%7.2%51%
CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions Corporation$26B12.3×6.8×32.0%10.3%15%
FICOFair Isaac Corporation$18B24.6×18.8×85.1%34.1%-33%
FLEXFlex Ltd.$42B43.4×23.4×9.5%3.3%19%
KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc.$61B49.2×35.7×64.7%19.1%20%
MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.$66B81.4×63.9×55.2%24.4%22%
SNDKSandisk Corporation$260B22.5×19.5×71.5%56.5%93%
TDYTeledyne Technologies Incorporated$28B29.5×18.9×39.0%15.3%9%

The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 10.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 28.0×FY25 23.8×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $294.30
52-week range$187 – $314
Analyst targets$289 – $370
At own 5y-median P/E (24×)$232
At 5y P/E range (18–29×)$178 – $278
At sector P/E (53×)$519

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.