The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS
Goldman Sachs trades at a 21.7% P/E discount to its peer median (15.9x vs 20.2x) despite FY2025 diluted EPS of $51.32 growing 26.6% year-over-year and operating margin expanding from 14.5% to 17.5%. The stock has pulled back roughly 10% since its last earnings report to $1,040.47, sitting below its 50-day MA of $1,053.69 but well above the 200-day MA of $932.87, with the MACD histogram turning positive at +0.61 — suggesting the correction is exhausting rather than deteriorating.
Smart money conviction has rebounded sharply to 0.2593 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30 from 0.0217 the prior quarter, and fund count rose to 73 from 71, indicating institutional re-accumulation during the pullback. The combination of discounted valuation, strong earnings momentum, and stabilizing technicals makes the risk/reward attractive at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders net sold 400,344 shares worth $315.3M over the trailing 24 months across 211 dispositions versus 67 acquisitions, with no cluster buying detected.
- Revenue decline. FY2025 revenue of $125.1B fell 1.4% year-over-year from $126.9B, meaning EPS growth is being driven by margin expansion and buybacks rather than top-line strength.
- EV/EBITDA premium. EV/EBITDA of 27.4x sits 120% above the peer median of 12.5x, suggesting the P/E discount may be partially offset by higher enterprise value leverage.
- Negative operating cash flow. FY2025 operating cash flow was -$45.2B with FCF of -$47.2B, a pattern persistent across FY2023–FY2025, which limits financial flexibility if capital markets activity slows.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2024–FY2025 · technicals as of 2026-08-18. Orin's read on GS; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All GS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $19.0B | 0.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $18.6B | 0.4% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $8.2B | 0.5% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $7.3B | 0.3% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $7.1B | 0.4% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $7.0B | 0.4% of fund |
161 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 279 Form 4 filings, net −$316.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 23 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about GS
Orin answers questions about GS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.1× | 13.2× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.3× | 30.0× | — |
| P/S | 2.31× | 1.76× | — |
| P/B | 2.3× | 1.2× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.49σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$1202
$995 – $1325 · +30% against today's price
- 22 buy or overweight
- 30 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | $272B | 14.1× | 26.3× | 57.3% | 17.8% | 17% |
| AXPAmerican Express Company | $206B | 18.5× | 8.9× | 84.3% | 13.6% | 34% |
| MSMorgan Stanley | $310B | 15.8× | 23.0× | 59.7% | 16.0% | 18% |
| SCHWThe Charles Schwab Corporation | $173B | 18.0× | 11.0× | 86.7% | 33.6% | 20% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 22.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $853 | $1005.58 · −15% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-2620 | $1005.58 · −361% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.