Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. ICE
ICE's FY2025 results show accelerating fundamental strength — revenue grew 7.5% to $12.6B, diluted EPS rose 20.7% to $5.77, and free cash flow held at $4.3B while total debt declined to $20.3B. The stock trades at a 21.8x P/E and 15.2x EV/EBITDA, roughly 14% and 20% below peer medians respectively, despite operating margins above 38% and a diversified franchise spanning exchanges, fixed income data, and mortgage technology.
With RSI cooling from 74 to 66.5 and the stock consolidating near the 200-day MA at $154.46, the prior overbought condition has eased enough to justify accumulating at a discount to peers while secular catalysts — record $18T mortgage equity, new ICE-indexed ETF launches, and fixed income data growth — continue to compound.
What could go wrong
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of ~947K shares worth $205M over 24 months with no cluster buying; recent CTO and SVP sales continue the pattern.
- Leverage overhang. Total debt of $20.3B against stockholders' equity of $28.9B; rising rates could pressure interest costs and cap M&A flexibility.
- Mortgage Technology cyclicality. Mortgage Technology segment is sensitive to refi volumes and housing activity; a rate-driven slowdown could dampen segment growth despite record home equity levels.
- Mean reversion at 200-day MA. Stock is trading essentially flat to its 200-day MA ($154.46); a decisive break below could signal a longer-term trend change.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2024 · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-14. Orin's read on ICE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ICE filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 28 Aug | Intercontinental Exchange's Eighth Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation became effective August 28, 2026, upon filing with the Delaware Secretary of State, completing… | read |
| 8-K | 21 Aug | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 20 Aug | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | read |
| 10-Q | 30 Jul | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 30 Jul | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 30 Jul | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 19 May | Intercontinental Exchange filed a Form 8-K disclosing only the routine results of its May 15, 2026 annual meeting. | read |
| 13D/A | 4 May | Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Harris Associates L P | $2.2B | 2.9% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
125 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 275 Form 4 filings, net −$209.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 25 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ICE
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.0× | 30.6× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.4× | 17.3× | — |
| P/S | 6.54× | 7.31× | — |
| P/B | 3.0× | 3.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−1.15σ from its own mean).
8.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$185
$163 – $218 · +19% against today's price
- 32 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $88B | 22.0× | 15.4× | 73.4% | 30.0% | 14% |
| CMECME Group Inc. | $97B | 22.9× | 18.4× | 81.9% | 63.1% | 16% |
| COINCoinbase Global, Inc. | $52B | — | — | 79.0% | -17.8% | -7% |
| MCOMoody's Corporation | $82B | 30.0× | 22.0× | 71.9% | 34.3% | 80% |
| NDAQNasdaq, Inc. | $53B | 27.5× | 19.5× | 59.4% | 22.6% | 16% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 20.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $172 | $140.78 · +22% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $140 | $140.78 · −0% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.