Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
ICE's fundamental momentum is accelerating into 2026, with Q2 2026 revenue of $3.61B growing 10.7% YoY and Q1 2026 up 13.5%, while the stock trades at a 22.1x P/E and 15.4x EV/EBITDA — roughly 12% and 18% below peer medians.
FY2025 operating margin expanded to 38.7% with diluted EPS of $5.77 up 20.7%, and free cash flow of $4.29B against $20.3B total debt supports continued deleveraging. With RSI at a neutral 52.2 and the stock consolidating between the 50-day MA at $154.00 and the 200-day MA at $155.26, the technical setup has cooled from prior overbought levels, offering an attractive entry near support while new initiatives like the private credit reference data service and MarketAxess integration add secular catalysts.
What could go wrong
- Mortgage Technology drag. The Mortgage Technology segment faces headwinds from elevated property insurance costs rising 8.7% annually and amortization pressure that can suppress reported margins and EPS visibility.
- Insider selling pressure. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 976,422 shares valued at approximately $209.8M, with recent September 2026 option exercises followed by open-market sales at $160-plus.
- Leverage and debt servicing. Total debt of $20.28B as of FY2025 remains elevated relative to stockholders equity of $28.9B, making the balance sheet sensitive to rising rates or integration costs from the MarketAxess acquisition.
- Short-term technical weakness. MACD histogram is negative at approximately -0.60 with the line below signal, indicating bearish short-term momentum that could drive a break below the $154–$155 moving average support band.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · peer comparison, 24 Sep · FY25 fundamentals · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on ICE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 2.8% over twelve months, from $159.84 on 27 Oct 2025 to $155.44 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $175.10 on 26 Jan 2026; the last close is 11.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 11.8M, on 12 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ICE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.2B | 0.1% |
| Harris Associates | $2.2B | 2.9% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.5B | 0.3% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.1B | 0.1% |
128 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 275 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$185.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 25 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ICE
Orin answers questions about ICE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 30.6×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.9×below usual | 30.6× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 6.99×near usual | 7.31× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.9×below usual | 17.3× | — |
| P/B | 3.0×near usual | 3.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $184 (from $160 to $218) — 18% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$184
$160 – $218 · +18% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 25.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $87B | 21.9× | 15.9× | 79.0% | 32.3% | 14% |
| CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc. | $34B | 25.2× | 16.2× | 52.3% | 26.7% | 26% |
| CMECME Group Inc. | $106B | 23.9× | 16.1× | 84.3% | 63.1% | 16% |
| NDAQNasdaq, Inc. | $58B | 28.2× | 19.9× | 63.2% | 22.8% | 17% |
- CME: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $150 a share — 4% below the $156.77 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $150 | 4% below $156.77 |
| Levered | $123 | 22% below $156.77 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.