International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
IFF's turnaround is structurally credible — total debt has been cut from $12.2B in 2021 to $6.65B in FY2025 and gross margin expanded to 36.2% — but the stock has run ahead of fundamentals.
At $90.68, IFF trades at 83.2x trailing P/E, a 135% premium to the peer median of 35.4x, with RSI at 73.1 signaling overbought conditions. The Q2 2026 earnings miss of $0.82 versus $1.07 estimated (−23.4%) and FY2025's net loss of $361M on 5.2% revenue decline argue against chasing at these levels, even as Fribourg's $19.3M insider purchase at $74.28 in June 2026 and continued product innovation provide support. The upcoming Q3 2026 print on November 3 is the decisive catalyst.
What could go wrong
- Revenue erosion persists. FY2025 revenue fell 5.2% to $10.89B and Q2 2026 revenue declined 0.3% YoY to $1.95B; continued top-line weakness would undermine the margin-expansion narrative.
- Valuation compression. At 83.2x P/E and 19.4x EV/EBITDA — 135% and 64% above peer medians respectively — there is little margin for error; any execution stumble could trigger a sharp derating.
- FCF deterioration. FY2025 free cash flow fell to $256M from $602M in FY2024, limiting financial flexibility for buybacks or further debt reduction despite the deleveraging progress.
- Insider selling signals. Multiple insiders sold in August 2026 — the CFO divested 8,825 shares at $85.55 and the President of Scent liquidated all 5,718 shares at $83.19 — after the large Fribourg purchase in June.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on IFF; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 42.8% over twelve months, from $65.29 on 27 Oct 2025 to $93.21 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $94.15 on 23 Oct 2026; the last close is 1.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 6.2M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All IFF filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.8B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $982.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $919.6M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $744.9M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $537.6M | 0.0% |
| Icahn Carl C | $338.7M | 4.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $331.7M | 0.1% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $235.1M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $232.3M | 0.0% |
80 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 210 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $36.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about IFF
Orin answers questions about IFF from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 85.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — below its usual level (113×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 85.5×below usual | 113× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 2.38×above usual | 1.88× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.8×below usual | 26.7× | — |
| P/B | 1.7×above usual | 1.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $98.14 (from $91 to $108) — 5% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$98.14
$91 – $108 · +5% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 85.5× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (ASH 63.8×, MKC 8.6×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc. | $24B | 85.5× | 19.8× | 37.5% | 2.9% | 2% |
| ASHAshland Inc. | $3B | 63.8× | 11.5× | 29.4% | 2.8% | 3% |
| MKCMcCormick & Company, Incorporated | $13B | 8.6× | 12.5× | 39.1% | 19.4% | 22% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 85.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now85.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $0 a share — 100% below the $92.36 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $0 | 100% below $92.36 |
| Levered | $5 | 94% below $92.36 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.