Intel Corporation INTC
Intel's turnaround is progressing—FY2025 operating income narrowed to near-breakeven at -$23M from -$11.7B in FY2024, gross margin recovered to 34.8% from 32.7%, and free cash flow improved to -$4.95B from -$15.66B—but at $89.47 the shares still trade at 133x EV/EBITDA versus a 32x peer median while revenue declined 0.47% in FY2025. The new CEO's $10M insider purchase at $95 on August 11 and a rising smart money score of 1.18 as of Q2 2026 (up from 0.87 in Q1) lend credibility to the recovery thesis, but persistent negative free cash flow and $46.6B in total debt keep this a show-me story until top-line growth returns and the valuation premium compresses.
What could go wrong
- Negative free cash flow. FY2025 FCF of -$4.95B, while improved from -$15.66B in FY2024, still indicates significant cash burn requiring external financing or asset sales.
- Revenue still declining. FY2025 revenue fell 0.47% YoY to $52.85B, extending a multi-year downtrend from $79B in FY2021, meaning the turnaround has yet to reach the top line.
- Extreme EV/EBITDA premium. At 133x EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 32x, the stock prices in substantial improvement that has not yet been fully delivered.
- High leverage. Total debt of $46.6B against stockholders' equity of $114.3B constrains financial flexibility while the foundry buildout continues.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 revenue_growth_yoy. Orin's read on INTC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All INTC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $39.8B | 0.9% of fund |
| State Street | $30.3B | 0.9% of fund |
| Nvidia | $30.0B | 47.3% of fund |
| Invesco | $22.0B | 1.7% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $15.4B | 0.8% of fund |
| Fmr | $13.2B | 0.6% of fund |
196 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 168 Form 4 filings, net $12.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 178.7× | 14.5× | — |
| P/S | 10.84× | 2.64× | — |
| P/B | 7.1× | 1.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.16σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$111
$60 – $200 · −9% against today's price
- 32 buy or overweight
- 46 hold
- 7 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTCIntel Corporation | $618B | — | 178.7× | 38.9% | -19.8% | -11% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $188B | 45.5× | 29.8× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $377B | 40.6× | 33.1× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| APHAmphenol Corporation | $203B | 39.1× | 23.1× | 38.5% | 17.8% | 37% |
| ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $355B | 342.8× | 256.8× | 95.3% | 20.2% | 13% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $245B | 51.0× | 43.4× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| NOWServiceNow, Inc. | $146B | 87.4× | 43.4× | 74.8% | 11.3% | 14% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $207B | 22.5× | 16.2× | 54.2% | 21.0% | 37% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $249B | 41.2× | 28.5× | 58.3% | 31.1% | 36% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $3 | $105.12 · −97% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-4 | $105.12 · −104% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.