Intel Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Intel's turnaround is showing genuine operational momentum—Q2 2026 revenue surged 25.4% YoY to $16.1B with $1.98B in operating income, and CEO Lip Bu Tan's $10M insider purchase at $95 on August 11 signals conviction—but the stock's 24% pullback to $91.69 reflects unresolved concerns about negative FY2025 free cash flow of -$4.95B, $46.6B in total debt, and an EV/EBITDA of 142x versus a 20.4x peer median.
With RSI at 34.4 and the stock trading below its 50-day MA of $102.86 but above its 200-day MA of $85.09, the risk/reward has improved from the prior hold at $119.33 but remains unresolved pending Q3 2026 results. Hold until evidence of sustained positive free cash flow and further gross-margin expansion beyond the current 34.8% level materializes.
What could go wrong
- Cash burn persistence. FY2025 free cash flow remained deeply negative at -$4.95B against $46.6B in total debt; if capex does not decline meaningfully, the balance sheet constrains strategic flexibility.
- Q3 2026 disappointment risk. Seeking Alpha notes extremely high Q3 2026 expectations after a streak of upward revisions and earnings beats; a miss or weak Q4 guidance could reverse the turnaround narrative quickly.
- Competitive pressure from China. Recent news highlights CXMT's progress in server memory and broader AI-semiconductor bubble concerns, which could pressure Intel's competitive positioning and sector multiples.
- Valuation compression on profitability lag. EV/EBITDA of 142x versus a 20.4x peer median leaves little room for execution missteps; any delay in reaching sustained operating profitability could trigger a de-rating.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 FY26 results · insider trades · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on INTC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 137% over twelve months, from $39.54 on 27 Oct 2025 to $93.74 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $140.94 on 22 Jun 2026; the last close is 33.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 294.7M, on 23 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All INTC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $59.5B | 0.9% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $39.8B | 0.9% |
| State Street | $30.3B | 0.9% |
| Nvidia | $30.0B | 47.3% |
| Invesco | $22.0B | 1.7% |
| Geode Capital Management | $15.4B | 0.8% |
| FMR | $13.2B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $12.5B | 0.6% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $10.3B | 1.4% |
| Norges Bank | $8.6B | 0.9% |
198 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 168 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $6.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about INTC
Orin answers questions about INTC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 8.69× its yearly sales — above its usual level (2.64×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 46.1× |
| P/S | 8.69×above usual | 2.64× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 145× | — | — |
| P/B | 5.5×above usual | 1.5× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 10.5× to 126× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 6.5× to 107× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $118 (from $80 to $200) — 26% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$118
$80 – $200 · +26% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 33.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTCIntel Corporation | $496B | lost money | 145× | 38.9% | −19.8% | −11% |
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $915B | 142× | 85.3× | 53.2% | 15.6% | 10% |
| ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $178B | 192× | 135× | 95.4% | 17.1% | 11% |
| MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc. | $213B | 79.9× | 45.1× | 51.4% | 27.9% | 16% |
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | $1.05T | 12.3× | 9.3× | 80.7% | 63.8% | 92% |
| NVDANVIDIA Corporation | $5.25T | 27.4× | 22.5× | 74.7% | 63.7% | 110% |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | $64B | 19.8× | 14.2× | 56.3% | 23.4% | 29% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $167B | 12.2× | 15.2× | 53.1% | 31.6% | 50% |
| STMSTMicroelectronics N.V. | $43B | 91.8× | 19.2× | 34.3% | 3.5% | 3% |
| TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | $2.27T | 24.4× | 16.3× | 65.8% | 51.5% | 41% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $282B | 40.0× | 26.6× | 60.2% | 34.3% | 41% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $2 a share — 97% below the $93.77 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $2 | 97% below $93.77 |
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.