Linde plc LIN
Linde's fundamentals remain best-in-class—FY2025 gross margin expanded to 43.3% with EPS of $14.59 and a record $8.1B sale-of-gas backlog reported in Q2 2026—but the stock trades at $481 with a P/E of 30.9x and a GuruFocus DCF pegging intrinsic value at roughly $335, leaving limited margin of safety. Technicals have deteriorated since the prior buy call: the stock sits below its 50-day MA of $508.78 with bearish MACD (line -8.94 below signal -8.37) and RSI at 39.8, while insiders have been net sellers over 24 months (-$31.7M net value).
The combination of full valuation, weak momentum, and rising debt ($27.0B in FY2025 vs $22.6B in FY2024) argues for patience rather than chasing at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. P/E of 30.9x and DCF intrinsic value of ~$335 vs price of $483 suggest meaningful downside if growth disappoints or rates rise.
- Rising leverage and capex. Total debt rose to $26.99B in FY2025 from $22.61B in FY2024 while capex surged to $5.26B, compressing FCF margin to 14.97% from 16.8% in FY2023.
- Insider distribution. Net insider selling of $31.7M over 24 months with 93 dispositions vs 99 acquisitions; recent director purchase of only 100 shares is token.
- Technical breakdown. Stock trading below 50-day MA of $508.78 with MACD histogram negative; a break below the 200-day MA of $476.55 could trigger further selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · Q2 2026 earnings call news (MarketBeat, 2026-07-31) · peer_relative composite · GuruFocus news, 2026-08-17. Orin's read on LIN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All LIN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $15.7B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $10.6B | 0.3% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $9.0B | 1.3% of fund |
| Invesco | $8.0B | 0.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $6.5B | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $6.2B | 0.3% of fund |
132 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 192 Form 4 filings, net −$31.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LIN
Orin answers questions about LIN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 30.2× | 32.3× | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.9× | 17.6× | — |
| P/S | 6.13× | 5.85× | — |
| P/B | 5.6× | 5.0× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.81σ from its own mean).
18.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $5.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$563
$525 – $612 · +20% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LINLinde plc | $217B | 30.2× | 17.9× | 37.6% | 20.4% | 19% |
| APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc. | $64B | — | 62.5× | 32.1% | -0.4% | -0% |
| AVNTAvient Corporation | $4B | 22.0× | 11.5× | 32.2% | 5.2% | 7% |
| ECLEcolab Inc. | $78B | 36.9× | 25.9× | 44.1% | 12.6% | 21% |
| ESIElement Solutions Inc | $9B | 48.2× | 27.8× | 38.4% | 5.7% | 7% |
| FULH.B. Fuller Company | $3B | 14.7× | 9.1× | 32.5% | 5.3% | 9% |
| HWKNHawkins, Inc. | $3B | 31.9× | 16.2× | 22.3% | 7.3% | 15% |
| SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company | $79B | 29.8× | 20.9× | 49.1% | 11.0% | 62% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 2.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.