Linde plc
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Linde's growth narrative has clearly improved since the prior hold call: Q2 2026 revenue accelerated to $9.29B (+9.3% YoY) from +3.1% in Q3 2025, operating margin held at 27.2% for FY2025, and smart money flows turned more positive (score 0.16 as of Q2 2026 vs 0.07 prior quarter) with fund count rising to 68.
However, at $482.38 the stock trades at 31.0x P/E — a 6.6% premium to the peer median of 29.1x — and sits below its 200-day MA of $486.52, while total debt climbed to $27.0B in FY2025 from $22.6B in FY2024. The accelerating top line and bullish MACD histogram (+2.76) are encouraging, but the valuation cushion is thin and the technical trend has not fully repaired, arguing for patience until Q3 2026 earnings on October 29 confirm the growth trajectory.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 31.0x P/E versus a peer median of 29.1x, any growth disappointment could trigger multiple contraction; a GuruFocus DCF cited intrinsic value near $335 versus the current price of $482.38.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $27.0B in FY2025 from $22.6B in FY2024 and $20.3B in FY2023, narrowing financial flexibility if end-market demand softens.
- Insider selling persists. Over the trailing 24 months insiders were net sellers of 83,484 shares worth approximately $39.9M, with only 2 acquisitions versus 11 dispositions.
- Technical overhead. Stock closed at $482.38 on 5 Oct, below the 200-day MA of $486.52, indicating the longer-term trend has not fully recovered despite the recent MACD bullish crossover.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on LIN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 14.3% over twelve months, from $444.82 on 27 Oct 2025 to $508.65 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $546.64 on 2 Jul 2026; the last close is 6.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 6.3M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All LIN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $19.4B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $15.7B | 0.3% |
| State Street | $10.6B | 0.3% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $9.0B | 1.3% |
| Invesco | $8.0B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $6.5B | 0.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $6.2B | 0.3% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $6.1B | 0.6% |
| FMR | $4.3B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.8B | 0.2% |
135 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 194 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$39.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LIN
Orin answers questions about LIN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 32.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 32.3×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NASDAQ is at 26.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 32.7×near usual | 32.3× | 26.4× |
| P/S | 6.61×above usual | 5.85× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.2×above usual | 17.6× | — |
| P/B | 6.0×above usual | 5.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $557 (from $525 to $580) — 9% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$557
$525 – $580 · +9% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 32.7× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (APD 129×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LINLinde plc | $234B | 32.7× | 19.2× | 37.6% | 20.4% | 19% |
| APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc. | $69B | 129× | n/m | 31.6% | 4.1% | 3% |
- APD: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 32.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now32.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 26.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now26.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $456 a share — 10% below the $507.15 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $456 | 10% below $507.15 |
| Levered | $254 | 50% below $507.15 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.