Lam Research Corporation LRCX
Lam Research posted FY2026 (ended 2026-06-28) revenue of $23.2B (+26.0% YoY) and diluted EPS of $5.76 (+38.8%), with operating margin expanding to 35.3% as AI-driven memory demand flows through to earnings. Smart money has turned decisively constructive — the institutional score rose from 0.34 to 0.67 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30 — and the company just announced a 27% dividend increase.
However, at 52.1x trailing earnings (a 71.5% premium to the 30.4x peer median) with $222M of net insider selling over 24 months and the stock trading below its 50-day MA of $331 against a last close of $301.90, the valuation and near-term technicals leave no margin of safety. The fundamental story is intact but already largely discounted — hold existing exposure rather than add at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation de-rating. At 52.1x trailing earnings — 71.5% above the 30.4x peer median — any deceleration in AI/memory capex could trigger a sharp multiple compression, especially given KLAC trades at 47.6x.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold $222M of stock (116 dispositions vs 46 acquisitions); CEO Timothy Archer has been systematically exercising options at $30.03 and selling common shares at $300–$390.
- Semiconductor cyclicality. The +26.0% revenue growth and 35.3% operating margin reflect a peak-cycle environment; prior FY2024 saw revenue decline 14.5% and net income fall 15.1% when memory demand paused.
- Technical deterioration. Stock closed at $301.90, below the 50-day MA of $331 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.34 and RSI at 44.4; loss of the 200-day MA at $257 would signal a broader trend break.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2026 + derived_metrics · smart_money points · peer_relative · insider summary + insider transactions. Orin's read on LRCX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All LRCX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $35.4B | 0.8% of fund |
| State Street | $26.3B | 0.8% of fund |
| Invesco | $22.7B | 1.8% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $18.6B | 1.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $15.9B | 0.7% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $14.9B | 0.8% of fund |
179 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 172 Form 4 filings, net −$244.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 39 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about LRCX
Orin answers questions about LRCX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 53.1× | 23.4× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.0× | 19.1× | — |
| P/S | 16.54× | 6.35× | — |
| P/B | 30.9× | 12.7× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+3.95σ from its own mean).
26.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$376
$290 – $500 · +22% against today's price
- 39 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $377B | 40.6× | 33.1× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| ANETArista Networks, Inc. | $256B | 63.4× | 49.7× | 63.0% | 38.4% | 31% |
| ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $355B | 342.8× | 256.8× | 95.3% | 20.2% | 13% |
| INTCIntel Corporation | $618B | — | 178.7× | 38.9% | -19.8% | -11% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | $78B | 17.4× | 11.4× | 80.9% | 21.3% | 23% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $245B | 51.0× | 43.4× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | $1.21T | 23.9× | 17.4× | 72.6% | 55.9% | 71% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $207B | 22.5× | 16.2× | 54.2% | 21.0% | 37% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $249B | 41.2× | 28.5× | 58.3% | 31.1% | 36% |
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | $141B | 15.0× | 18.9× | 42.3% | 17.3% | 36% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 30.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $46 | $323.56 · −86% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $47 | $323.56 · −86% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.