Mastercard Incorporated
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Mastercard remains a best-in-class payments compounder — FY2025 revenue grew 16.4% to $32.8B with a 59.5% operating margin and $16.9B in free cash flow — but the stock trades at 31.6x earnings, a 69% premium to the peer median P/E of 18.7x and essentially in line with Visa at 31.9x.
Q2 2026 revenue growth decelerated to 14.1% from 16.4% in FY2025, yet the company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last eight quarters including a 5.7% surprise in the most recent quarter. Technicals have improved since the prior assessment with the stock at $574.76 above both its 50-day ($571.87) and 200-day ($532.20) moving averages and a positive MACD histogram of 1.19, but persistent insider selling (zero acquisitions across 267 transactions over 24 months, net dispositions of 210,671 shares worth $117.3M) and declining smart money scores (from 0.08 in mid-2025 to 0.03 as of Q2 2026) temper enthusiasm. The premium valuation leaves little margin of safety, making this a hold pending evidence that growth reaccelerates or the multiple compresses to a more attractive entry.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 31.6x P/E — a 69% premium to the peer median of 18.7x — any growth disappointment could trigger multiple contraction with limited downside protection.
- Growth deceleration. Q2 2026 revenue growth of 14.1% marks a continued deceleration from FY2025's 16.4% and FY2024's 12.2% trend; a further slowdown would challenge the premium multiple.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months there were zero insider acquisitions against 127 dispositions totaling $117.3M in net value, including open-market sales by the CEO and CFO in recent months.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money scores have declined from 0.08 as of Q2 2025 to 0.03 as of Q2 2026, suggesting institutional conviction is waning even as fund count rose to 77.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results and fundamentals · peer comparison · earnings vs estimates. Orin's read on MA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 6.6% over twelve months, from $572.36 on 27 Oct 2025 to $609.85 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $633.21 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 3.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 9.2M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $34.1B | 0.5% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $26.8B | 0.6% |
| State Street | $19.0B | 0.6% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $14.4B | 0.8% |
| FMR | $12.2B | 0.5% |
| Geode Capital Management | $11.0B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $9.8B | 0.4% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $9.5B | 1.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $7.7B | 0.4% |
| Wellington Management Group | $6.5B | 1.1% |
190 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 273 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$120.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 35 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MA
Orin answers questions about MA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 33.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 36.0×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.5×below usual | 36.0× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 15.2×below usual | 16.0× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.7×below usual | 27.3× | — |
| P/B | 95.9×above usual | 58.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $675 (from $597 to $740) — 11% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$675
$597 – $740 · +11% against the last close
- 26 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 33.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 14.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAMastercard Incorporated | $534B | 33.5× | 24.7× | 100.0% | 46.3% | 232% |
| AXPAmerican Express Company | $211B | 17.6× | n/a | n/a | 14.3% | 36% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | $25B | 9.1× | 7.0× | 47.2% | 13.4% | 11% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | $25B | lost money | 10.9× | 61.5% | −11.4% | −6% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | $48B | 10.6× | 7.3× | 44.5% | 13.8% | 24% |
| VVisa Inc. | $750B | 21.9× | 26.4× | 117.3% | 51.2% | 65% |
- GPN: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- AXP: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- AXP: EV/EBITDA is not used (n/a) for a lender — the debt in its enterprise value is mostly the deposits it lends out.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 33.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now33.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $511 a share — 16% below the $608.99 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $511 | 16% below $608.99 |
| Levered | $556 | 9% below $608.99 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.