Mastercard Incorporated MA
Mastercard's fundamentals remain best-in-class — FY2025 revenue grew 16.4% to $32.8B with ~59.5% operating margins and $16.9B in free cash flow — and the stock has cooled from overbought levels, with RSI falling from 72.3 to 62.1 and price pulling back from ~$577 to $569.29. Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed a ~$1.1B stake in its Q2 13F, a meaningful vote of confidence from a marquee investor, while MA's P/E of 31.3 is essentially in line with Visa's 30.9 despite Mastercard's faster growth trajectory.
The premium valuation versus the broader peer median (P/E 20.8) is justified by the durable network moat and consistent high-teens EPS growth, but it leaves limited margin of safety, making execution and macro spend trends critical.
What could go wrong
- Premium valuation compression. At 31.3x P/E and 23.2x EV/EBITDA — 50% and 134% above peer medians — any growth deceleration could trigger multiple contraction even if absolute results remain strong.
- Insider selling pressure. Over 24 months, insiders net sold $75M in value across 164 dispositions vs 82 acquisitions; CEO Miebach sold 15,372 shares at $575 on Aug 5, 2026.
- Smart money deterioration. Smart money score declined from +0.55 in Sep 2024 to -0.017 in Mar 2026, though data is stale and fund count rose from 45 to 71 over the same period.
- Regulatory and geopolitical exposure. Brazilian Will Bank dispute requiring 50% payout to acquirers highlights recurring regulatory and operational risks in international markets.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · Technical indicators as of 2026-08-14. Orin's read on MA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $26.8B | 0.6% of fund |
| State Street | $19.0B | 0.6% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $14.4B | 0.8% of fund |
| Fmr | $12.2B | 0.5% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $11.0B | 0.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $9.8B | 0.4% of fund |
187 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 262 Form 4 filings, net −$84.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 38 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MA
Orin answers questions about MA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 30.7× | 36.0× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.8× | 27.3× | — |
| P/S | 14.00× | 16.04× | — |
| P/B | 88.0× | 58.1× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.26σ from its own mean).
12.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $16.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$667
$597 – $740 · +19% against today's price
- 52 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAMastercard Incorporated | $491B | 30.7× | 22.8× | 100.0% | 46.3% | 232% |
| AXPAmerican Express Company | $204B | 18.3× | 8.8× | 84.3% | 13.6% | 34% |
| COFCapital One Financial Corporation | $120B | 12.1× | 5.0× | 66.2% | 13.4% | 9% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | $45B | 9.9× | 6.8× | 45.8% | 14.4% | 24% |
| SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc. | $21B | 32.5× | 23.2× | 76.5% | 11.4% | 6% |
| VVisa Inc. | $675B | 30.7× | 23.6× | 80.2% | 50.8% | 61% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 67.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $561 | $487.50 · +15% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $616 | $487.50 · +26% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.