Altria Group, Inc. MO
Altria trades at a compelling 53% P/E discount to consumer-staples peers (13.9x vs. 29.8x median) and generates robust $9.1B free cash flow, but the 2025 net income collapse to $6.9B (EPS $4.11 vs. $6.54 in 2024) despite rising operating income to $12.0B signals material below-the-line charges that remain unexplained. Secular revenue erosion from $21.1B (2021) to $20.1B (2025), negative book equity of -$3.5B, and $25.7B in total debt compound the uncertainty, while the stock sits exactly at its 200-day MA ($65.67) with RSI at 37 and a collapsed smart money score (0.124 to 0.014 over twelve months).
The dividend story and valuation discount are real, but weak institutional flows, insider net selling, and deteriorating bottom-line quality argue for patience until the next earnings print clarifies the net income gap.
What could go wrong
- Below-line earnings erosion. 2025 net income fell 39% to $6.9B from $11.3B in 2024 despite operating income rising to $12.0B, pointing to large non-operating charges (interest, tax, or one-time items) that could persist.
- Secular revenue decline. Revenue has contracted every year from $21.1B in 2021 to $20.1B in 2025, and cigarette volume declines plus oral tobacco weakness may accelerate the trend.
- Leverage and negative equity. Total debt of $25.7B against negative stockholders' equity of -$3.5B limits financial flexibility and raises balance-sheet risk if cash generation slows.
- Institutional outflows. Smart money score collapsed from 0.124 to 0.014 over the past year, and recent 13F filings show institutions like Banco Santander cutting stakes by 97.5%.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative composite · FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025. Orin's read on MO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $7.8B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $5.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $4.3B | 0.6% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $4.2B | 0.6% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
137 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 53 Form 4 filings, net −$15.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MO
Orin answers questions about MO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.5× | 13.9× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.7× | 10.9× | — |
| P/S | 5.27× | 4.14× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.15σ from its own mean).
1.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $9.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$71
$58 – $79 · +2% against today's price
- 16 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOAltria Group, Inc. | $115B | 14.5× | 11.7× | 71.0% | 36.5% | -265% |
| CLColgate-Palmolive Company | $69B | 33.8× | 19.6× | 60.4% | 9.7% | 631% |
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | $78B | 22.6× | 16.0× | 31.1% | 8.9% | 13% |
| MNSTMonster Beverage Corporation | $86B | 40.3× | 28.1× | 55.5% | 23.1% | 25% |
| TGTTarget Corporation | $71B | 16.1× | 9.9× | 29.3% | 4.1% | 27% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 48.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $107 | $73.16 · +46% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $92 | $73.16 · +26% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.