Altria Group, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Altria trades at a 47% P/E discount to consumer-staples peers (15.07x vs. 28.47x median) and generates formidable free cash flow ($9.07B in 2025, 45.1% FCF margin), but the core business remains in secular decline — 2025 revenue fell 1.5% to $20.14B and net income dropped 38.3% to $6.95B even as operating margins expanded to 59.8%.
The Q1 2026 revenue surge of 20.1% YoY did not repeat in Q2 2026 (+1.3% YoY), and negative stockholders' equity of -$3.5B against $25.7B of total debt raises legitimate questions about balance-sheet resilience despite improving smart money flows (score rising to 0.04 as of Q2 2026). The stock's technical momentum is positive (last close $71.42, above 50-day and 200-day MAs) but RSI at 64.4 limits near-term upside, and insider activity over 24 months is net negative (-34,198 shares).
What could go wrong
- Dividend sustainability. Negative stockholders' equity of -$3.5B (as of FY2025) and $25.7B in total debt constrain financial flexibility; a dividend cut would likely trigger a sharp repricing given the stock's income-oriented shareholder base.
- Revenue decline persists. Full-year 2025 revenue fell 1.5% YoY to $20.14B, continuing a multi-year decline from $21.11B in 2021; Q2 2026 revenue growth of only 1.3% YoY suggests the Q1 2026 surge of 20.1% may not be sustainable.
- Net income volatility. 2025 net income dropped 38.3% to $6.95B from $11.26B in 2024 despite rising operating income, indicating significant below-the-line charges that could recur and pressure EPS.
- Valuation trap on P/S basis. P/S of 5.65 is 113% above the peer median of 2.65, suggesting the market may be pricing in further revenue deterioration that the earnings-based multiples do not capture.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · fundamentals · quarterly results. Orin's read on MO; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 15.3% over twelve months, from $63.74 on 27 Oct 2025 to $73.49 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $76.07 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 3.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 38.3M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $9.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $7.8B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $5.1B | 0.2% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $4.3B | 0.6% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $4.2B | 0.6% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.4B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $1.6B | 0.3% |
| Capital World Investors | $1.3B | 0.2% |
140 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 54 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MO
Orin answers questions about MO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 15.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 14.0×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.5×above usual | 14.0× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 5.81×above usual | 4.14× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.3×above usual | 10.9× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $69.71 (from $58 to $79) — 5% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$69.71
$58 – $79 · −5% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 15.5× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (PM 29.6×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOAltria Group, Inc. | $123B | 15.5× | 12.3× | 69.9% | 37.8% | n/m |
| PMPhilip Morris International Inc. | $316B | 29.6× | 19.0× | 67.7% | 24.8% | n/m |
- MO, PM: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 15.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now15.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $100 a share — 36% above the $73.27 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $100 | 36% above $73.27 |
| Levered | $86 | 17% above $73.27 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.