Morgan Stanley MS
Morgan Stanley's FY2025 results are genuinely strong — EPS nearly doubled from $5.18 in 2023 to $10.20, revenue reached $115B, and FCF swung dramatically to $46.1B from -$36.9B two years prior. However, at $217 the stock trades at 17.4x earnings, a slight premium to Goldman Sachs at 16.0x, while sitting 17% above its 200-day MA with a bearish MACD crossover and RSI at a neutral 52.9.
Persistent insider net selling ($257M over 24 months, including recent sales by the CFO and Head of Technology) and a slightly negative smart money score add caution. The fundamental trajectory supports holding, but the combination of stretched technicals, insider distribution, and a $136B increase in total debt since 2023 argues against adding at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Debt expansion. Total debt surged from $339B (FY2023) to $475.6B (FY2025), a $136B increase that could pressure returns and balance-sheet flexibility if rates remain elevated or credit conditions deteriorate.
- Insider distribution. Net insider selling of 759K shares worth $257M over 24 months, with recent July 2026 sales by the CFO and Head of Technology & Operations, signals limited insider conviction at these levels.
- Technical exhaustion. Stock trades 17% above its 200-day MA ($184.95) with a bearish MACD histogram (-0.64) and RSI at 52.9, suggesting near-term momentum has stalled after a significant run.
- Valuation premium to closest peer. MS trades at 17.4x PE vs GS at 16.0x and 2.71x PS vs GS at 2.63x, a modest premium despite comparable business mix, limiting relative upside.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on MS; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $20.8B | 0.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $16.2B | 0.3% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $9.4B | 0.5% of fund |
| Brasada Capital Management | $7.5B | 1.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $6.3B | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $5.7B | 0.3% of fund |
153 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 152 Form 4 filings, net −$257.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 17 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MS
Orin answers questions about MS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.0× | 14.9× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.1× | 21.3× | — |
| P/S | 2.47× | 2.30× | — |
| P/B | 2.8× | 1.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.70σ from its own mean).
-7.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $46.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$240
$215 – $260 · +21% against today's price
- 29 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSMorgan Stanley | $313B | 16.0× | 23.1× | 59.7% | 16.0% | 18% |
| APLDApplied Digital Corp. | $8B | — | — | 22.4% | -42.3% | -17% |
| BTBTBit Digital, Inc. | $618M | — | — | 32.1% | -237.2% | -47% |
| CLSKCleanSpark, Inc. | $4B | — | — | -5.3% | -146.9% | -75% |
| GSThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | $276B | 14.3× | 26.5× | 57.3% | 17.8% | 17% |
| HUTHut 8 Corp. | $12B | — | 263.3× | 25.3% | -188.5% | -39% |
| MARAMarathon Digital Holdings, Inc. | $5B | — | — | -8.5% | -429.7% | -110% |
| RIOTRiot Platforms, Inc. | $9B | — | — | -13.8% | -196.3% | -48% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 11.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $21 | $207.78 · −90% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-70 | $207.78 · −134% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.