Micron Technology, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Micron's FY2026 results show revenue of $133.19B with gross margin of 80.7% and operating margin of 75.0%, driven by AI memory demand, while the stock trades at 13.66x earnings — a 32.8% discount to the peer median of 20.34x.
The company generated $58.96B in free cash flow and beat EPS estimates by 5.2% in the latest quarter (period ended 30 Sep), with smart money flows improving to a score of 0.36 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun. Despite a negative MACD histogram of -6.32 and RSI at 50.20 suggesting momentum has cooled near-term, the fundamental supercycle, cheap relative valuation, and strong balance sheet with only $5.18B in total debt against $138.38B in stockholders' equity support a buy.
What could go wrong
- Memory cycle downturn. Memory pricing could decline as industry supply eventually expands; the Seeking Alpha base case already assumes a manageable decline, but a sharper drop would compress margins from current 80.7% gross levels.
- Technical momentum cooling. MACD histogram is negative at -6.32 and RSI sits at 50.20 as of 9 Oct, indicating the near-term uptrend has stalled despite the stock trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 1,016,386 shares for $354.9M, with CEO Mehrotra selling at prices near $960-$990 in August 2026 — not alarming in size but consistently one-directional.
- AI demand concentration. The revenue explosion from $37.38B in FY2025 to $133.19B in FY2026 is heavily dependent on AI infrastructure spending; any slowdown in hyperscaler capex could materially impact demand.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · peer comparison · earnings vs estimates, 30 Sep · 13F holdings, 30 Jun. Orin's read on MU; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 322% over twelve months, from $220.10 on 27 Oct 2025 to $928.76 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $1,213.56 on 25 Jun 2026; the last close is 23.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 86.4M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All MU filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $121.0B | 1.8% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $85.0B | 1.8% |
| State Street | $57.8B | 1.7% |
| Invesco | $41.9B | 3.3% |
| Capital World Investors | $34.0B | 4.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $31.9B | 1.7% |
| FMR | $30.8B | 1.3% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $29.6B | 1.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $28.5B | 1.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $21.3B | 1.1% |
222 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 597 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$386.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 31 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MU
Orin answers questions about MU from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 12.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.3× | — | 46.1× |
| P/S | 7.89×above usual | 4.21× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.3× | — | — |
| P/B | 7.6× | — | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 7.3× to 137× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 3.7× to 35.6× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 1.3× to 7.8× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $1,589 (from $1,200 to $3,000) — 71% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$1,589
$1,200 – $3,000 · +71% against the last close
- 27 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 12.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 16.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | $1.05T | 12.3× | 9.3× | 80.7% | 63.8% | 92% |
| SNDKSandisk Corporation | $189B | 16.8× | 13.9× | 71.5% | 56.5% | 93% |
| STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | $152B | 33.9× | 27.1× | 50.4% | 31.9% | 245% |
| WDCWestern Digital Corporation | $143B | 13.3× | 22.7× | 52.6% | 69.2% | 114% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 12.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now12.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $1,324 a share — 42% above the $931.22 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $1,324 | 42% above $931.22 |
| Levered | $1,539 | 65% above $931.22 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.