Micron Technology, Inc. MU
Micron trades at $932.86, down roughly 10% from its $1,036+ peak, yet the fundamental picture has only strengthened: FY2025 revenue reached $37.4B with 39.8% gross margins and $8.5B net income, while the stock's 20.8x P/E sits at a ~47% discount to the peer median of 39.1x and its 15.1x EV/EBITDA is ~44% below the 27.1x peer median. Smart money is accelerating — the institutional score rose to 1.16 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30 from 0.30 the prior quarter, with fund count climbing to 76 — and recent news confirms $22B in take-or-pay commitments through 2030 and DRAM prices rising 58–63% sequentially.
The pullback below the 50-day MA of $955 with neutral RSI of 50.7 offers an entry into a cyclical upcycle that is still in its early innings, though heavy insider selling and thin FCF of $1.7B against $15.9B capex warrant measured position sizing.
What could go wrong
- Memory cyclicality. DRAM/NAND are notoriously cyclical; FY2023 saw a $5.8B net loss and negative 9.1% gross margins, and any supply glut or demand air-pocket could reverse the current pricing strength rapidly.
- Insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net-sold $490M (386 dispositions vs 86 acquisitions), and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra sold shares at $959–$989 on 2026-08-21, signaling limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Capex burden on free cash flow. FY2025 capex of $15.9B consumed nearly all of the $17.5B operating cash flow, leaving just $1.7B FCF; a further $10B in announced US investment intensifies the capital intensity.
- Supply constraints and competition. News commentary flags supply constraints as a near-term risk to meeting AI memory demand, and competitors like SanDisk are cited as having an edge in avoiding similar bottlenecks.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative composite · 13F composite as of 2026-06-30 · insider transaction filings. Orin's read on MU; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MU filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $85.0B | 1.8% of fund |
| State Street | $57.8B | 1.7% of fund |
| Invesco | $41.9B | 3.3% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $34.0B | 4.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $31.9B | 1.7% of fund |
| Fmr | $30.8B | 1.3% of fund |
220 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 472 Form 4 filings, net −$490.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 50 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MU
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.4× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.6× | 7.7× | — |
| P/S | 11.99× | 3.64× | — |
| P/B | 10.7× | 1.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.20σ from its own mean).
60.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$1548
$1100 – $2200 · +44% against today's price
- 58 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | $1.08T | 21.4× | 15.6× | 72.6% | 55.9% | 71% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $346B | 37.4× | 30.5× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $259B | 250.1× | 186.8× | 95.3% | 20.2% | 13% |
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | $217B | 24.0× | 15.8× | 77.3% | 22.0% | 20% |
| CSCOCisco Systems, Inc. | $428B | 32.3× | 22.5× | 64.5% | 21.0% | 27% |
| IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation | $221B | 20.5× | 17.2× | 58.4% | 15.5% | 34% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $226B | 46.9× | 40.0× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $366B | 50.5× | 41.9× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $177B | 19.2× | 13.9× | 54.2% | 21.0% | 37% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $232B | 38.4× | 26.6× | 58.3% | 31.1% | 36% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 42.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $444 | $896.35 · −50% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $383 | $896.35 · −57% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.