Netflix, Inc. NFLX
Netflix's FY2025 results are genuinely strong — revenue grew 15.85% to $45.2B, operating margin expanded to 29.49%, FCF reached $9.46B, and total debt was cut from $18.0B to $14.5B — but revenue growth has decelerated to 13.4% in the most recent quarter per news reports, and the stock remains in a longer-term downtrend at $81.72, below its 200-day MA of $87.69. At 25.3x trailing P/E (a 13.7% premium to the peer median of 22.2x) and 7.03x P/S (a 252% premium), valuation offers limited margin of safety, while persistent insider selling — net -$521M over 24 months including August 2026 sales by the CFO and both Co-CEOs — and a slightly negative smart money score of -0.1654 as of Q2 2026 temper enthusiasm.
The near-term technical setup is constructive with MACD above signal and price above the 50-day MA at $74.65, but the combination of decelerating growth, rich multiples, and sustained insider distribution keeps this a hold.
What could go wrong
- Revenue growth deceleration. Growth slowed from 17.6% in Q4 2025 to 13.4% last quarter per news; if this trend continues, the premium P/S multiple of 7.03x becomes harder to justify.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of -$521M over 24 months, with recent August 2026 sales by CFO Neumann and Co-CEOs Peters and Sarandos, signal limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Valuation premium. P/S of 7.03x is a 252% premium to the peer median of 2.0x; any earnings miss or guidance cut could trigger a sharp de-rating given the stock already sits 35% below its high.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score turned negative at -0.1654 as of Q2 2026 with fund count dropping from 75 to 69 quarter-over-quarter, suggesting institutional positioning is softening.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · FMP fundamentals FY2024–FY2025 · Technicals as of 2026-08-28 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on NFLX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All NFLX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $19.6B | 0.4% of fund |
| State Street | $12.9B | 0.4% of fund |
| Fmr | $9.7B | 0.4% of fund |
| Invesco | $9.7B | 0.8% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $7.8B | 0.4% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $7.1B | 0.4% of fund |
178 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 628 Form 4 filings, net −$522.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NFLX
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.1× | 39.8× | 26.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9× | 13.3× | — |
| P/S | 6.14× | 8.78× | — |
| P/B | 9.9× | 14.9× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.36σ from its own mean).
13.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $9.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$92
$57 – $119 · +28% against today's price
- 63 buy or overweight
- 29 hold
- 8 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLXNetflix, Inc. | $297B | 22.1× | 9.9× | 49.1% | 28.2% | 48% |
| DISThe Walt Disney Company | $180B | 21.3× | 9.5× | 37.6% | 8.7% | 8% |
| LYVLive Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $39B | — | 24.2× | 44.8% | 0.5% | 73% |
| NWSANews Corporation | $16B | 30.3× | 11.7× | 56.9% | 6.3% | 7% |
| TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $14B | 62.6× | 11.5× | 54.1% | 4.3% | 6% |
| WBDWarner Bros. Discovery, Inc. | $77B | — | 17.5× | 43.4% | -8.8% | -9% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 27.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $125 | $82.48 · +51% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $25 | $82.48 · −69% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.