Netflix, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Netflix posted a modest Q3 2026 EPS beat ($0.87 vs. $0.82 estimate, 6.1% surprise) but revenue growth decelerated for the third consecutive quarter to 11.8% YoY from 16.2% in Q1 2026, confirming the domestic engagement stall flagged by WSJ.
FY2025 margins remain strong (29.5% operating margin, 20.9% FCF margin) and valuation is reasonable at 21.3x P/E (2.1% premium to peer median) and 8.3x EV/EBITDA (16% discount to peers), but the stock at $69.85 trades below both its 50-day ($75.01) and 200-day ($82.76) moving averages as of 19 Oct amid a 6% layoff, CCO departure, and a declining smart money score (0.10 as of Q2 2026, down from 0.42 in Q4 2025). The restructuring under new creative leadership (Peter Rice in, Bela Bajaria out) introduces execution risk that warrants waiting for evidence of growth stabilization before committing new capital.
What could go wrong
- Revenue growth deceleration persists. YoY revenue growth has decelerated each quarter in 2026: 16.2% in Q1, 13.4% in Q2, and 11.8% in Q3, suggesting the domestic streaming business has plateaued as WSJ reported.
- Leadership and restructuring disruption. The departure of Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria, arrival of Peter Rice, and 6% workforce layoff — the deepest since 2022 — create uncertainty around content strategy and execution at a critical juncture.
- Competitive pressure intensifying. Skydance's plan to release 30 films per year and broader competitive consolidation add pressure at a time when Netflix is overhauling its creative leadership.
- Institutional sentiment fading. Smart money score fell from 0.42 in Q4 2025 to 0.10 as of Q2 2026, and insiders have net sold $486.7M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates and quarterly results · quarterly results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on NFLX; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 42.9% over twelve months, from $109.46 on 27 Oct 2025 to $62.52 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $115.75 on 12 Nov 2025; the last close is 46.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 200.8M, on 27 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All NFLX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $24.9B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $19.6B | 0.4% |
| State Street | $12.9B | 0.4% |
| FMR | $9.7B | 0.4% |
| Invesco | $9.7B | 0.8% |
| Geode Capital Management | $7.8B | 0.4% |
| Morgan Stanley | $7.1B | 0.4% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $6.7B | 0.7% |
| Capital World Investors | $6.2B | 0.7% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.4B | 0.2% |
181 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 649 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$487.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 13 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NFLX
Orin answers questions about NFLX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 39.6×); the typical Communication Services company on the NASDAQ is at 18.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.8×below usual | 39.6× | 18.9× |
| P/S | 5.23×below usual | 8.78× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3×below usual | 13.3× | — |
| P/B | 8.8×below usual | 14.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $86.21 (from $57 to $141) — 38% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$86.21
$57 – $141 · +38% against the last close
- 25 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLXNetflix, Inc. | $260B | 17.8× | 7.3× | 50.7% | 29.7% | 50% |
| AAPLApple Inc. | $5.07T | 39.7× | 30.2× | 48.7% | 27.6% | 137% |
| AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. | $2.73T | 20.1× | 11.3× | 50.8% | 17.4% | 30% |
| CMCSAComcast Corporation | $77B | 6.9× | 4.7× | 69.8% | 9.2% | 12% |
| DISThe Walt Disney Company | $190B | 22.7× | 10.0× | 37.6% | 8.7% | 8% |
| SKYDParamount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock | $8B | lost money | n/m | 28.8% | −2.1% | −5% |
| WBDWarner Bros. Discovery, Inc. | $78B | lost money | 7.8× | 47.2% | −8.8% | −9% |
- SKYD, WBD: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- SKYD: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Communication Services companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $108 a share — 73% above the $62.62 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $108 | 73% above $62.62 |
| Levered | $22 | 65% below $62.62 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.