Oracle Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Oracle's top-line acceleration is undeniable — Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 29.6% YoY to $19.3B and the cloud backlog stands at $664B — and the stock at $128.23 trades at a 22.8% discount to the peer median PE of 25.6x with an RSI of 39.7 suggesting near-term oversold conditions.
However, FY2026 free cash flow was -$23.7B on $55.7B of capex, total debt has ballooned to $156.2B against $42.5B of equity, and management plans up to $70B in FY2027 capex per recent news, meaning the cash burn is intensifying before it inflects. Insiders remain net sellers at -$2.06B over 24 months, and the stock sits below both its 50-day ($145.12) and 200-day ($160.19) moving averages. The backlog-to-revenue conversion story is compelling, but until capex peaks and FCF turns positive, the balance sheet risk offsets the growth and relative cheapness, keeping this a hold.
What could go wrong
- Capex escalation. FY2026 capex of $55.7B produced -$23.7B FCF; news indicates FY2027 capex could reach $70B, deepening the cash burn before backlog converts to revenue.
- Debt sustainability. Total debt of $156.2B against $42.5B equity, with news citing bond market nervousness about AI infrastructure financing and Oracle's high bond yields.
- Backlog conversion timing. The $664B cloud backlog is only valuable if it converts to revenue on schedule; delays or customer cancellations would undermine the growth thesis.
- Insider selling pressure. Insiders have net sold $2.06B of stock over 24 months with 75 dispositions vs 2 acquisitions, including recent sales by the CEO and CFO in September 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 31 Aug · fundamentals, year to 31 May · peer comparison, 16 Oct · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on ORCL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 53.6% over twelve months, from $281.40 on 27 Oct 2025 to $130.53 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $281.40 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 53.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 100.6M, on 11 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ORCL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $21.3B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $16.4B | 0.3% |
| State Street | $11.5B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $8.4B | 0.4% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $5.8B | 0.8% |
| Geode Capital Management | $5.7B | 0.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $4.5B | 0.2% |
| FMR | $3.8B | 0.2% |
| Norges Bank | $3.7B | 0.4% |
| Bank of America | $3.5B | 0.2% |
182 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 322 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.1B. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ORCL
Orin answers questions about ORCL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 20.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 33.6×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.1×below usual | 33.6× | 39.5× |
| P/S | 5.50×below usual | 6.07× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.6×below usual | 19.5× | — |
| P/B | 5.8× | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 16.8× to 266× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $236 (from $95 to $325) — 81% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$236
$95 – $325 · +81% against the last close
- 32 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 20.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 25.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCLOracle Corporation | $395B | 20.1× | 13.6× | 63.9% | 26.4% | 43% |
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | $198B | 21.9× | 13.8× | 77.3% | 22.0% | 20% |
| IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation | $237B | 21.0× | 16.6× | 58.0% | 16.0% | 33% |
| MSFTMicrosoft Corporation | $3.95T | 29.5× | 19.1× | 67.9% | 40.3% | 33% |
| NOWServiceNow, Inc. | $160B | 96.1× | 47.6× | 74.8% | 11.3% | 14% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 20.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now20.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.