The Procter & Gamble Company PG
PG delivered FY2026 (ended 2026-06-30) revenue of $87.0B (+3.3% YoY) with free cash flow recovering to $15.9B, but operating margin compressed to 22.7% from 24.3% as gross margin fell to 50.2% from 51.2%, and EPS growth decelerated to 1.7% from 8.1%. At 21.4x P/E and 17.3x EV/EBITDA, PG trades at roughly 21% and 13% discounts to peer medians, yet the stock at $144.40 sits below both its 50-day ($147.82) and 200-day ($147.69) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram, signaling bearish momentum.
Net insider buying of ~784K shares over 24 months and a slightly positive smart money score (0.09 as of 2026-06-30) are supportive but insufficient to offset margin compression and decelerating earnings against a 3.9x P/S that is 65% above the peer median.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Gross margin fell to 50.2% in FY2026 from 51.2% in FY2025 and operating margin dropped to 22.7% from 24.3%, squeezing profitability despite revenue reacceleration.
- Earnings deceleration. EPS growth slowed to 1.7% in FY2026 from 8.1% in FY2025, and net income growth was just 0.5%, raising questions about pricing power and cost pass-through.
- Technical weakness. Price of $144.40 is below both MA50 ($147.82) and MA200 ($147.69) with RSI at 44.8 and a negative MACD histogram (-0.21), indicating downtrend persistence.
- Premium P/S despite discount P/E. At 3.9x P/S, PG trades at a 65% premium to the peer median of 2.4x, limiting upside if margin recovery disappoints.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2026 + derived_metrics · FMP annual fundamentals FY2026 · derived_metrics FY2026 vs FY2025 · derived_metrics eps_growth_yoy FY2026 vs FY2025. Orin's read on PG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $22.3B | 0.5% of fund |
| State Street | $15.0B | 0.4% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $9.7B | 0.5% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $9.3B | 0.4% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $6.9B | 0.9% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $6.9B | 0.4% of fund |
170 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 329 Form 4 filings, net $53.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 15 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PG
Orin answers questions about PG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.8× | 24.5× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.7× | 17.8× | — |
| P/S | 4.03× | 4.46× | — |
| P/B | 6.6× | 7.6× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−3.66σ from its own mean).
9.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $15.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$158
$142 – $172 · +7% against today's price
- 27 buy or overweight
- 25 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGThe Procter & Gamble Company | $351B | 21.8× | 17.7× | 50.2% | 18.4% | 30% |
| CLColgate-Palmolive Company | $69B | 33.8× | 19.6× | 60.4% | 9.7% | 631% |
| CLXThe Clorox Company | $10B | 17.4× | 16.9× | 42.3% | 8.7% | -1894% |
| COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation | $401B | 45.4× | 27.0× | 12.9% | 3.0% | 28% |
| KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $32B | 16.6× | 12.4× | 36.7% | 11.8% | 123% |
| KOThe Coca-Cola Company | $379B | 26.5× | 20.7× | 61.9% | 28.6% | 43% |
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | $34B | 20.3× | 13.0× | 58.2% | 10.8% | 16% |
| PMPhilip Morris International Inc. | $297B | 27.4× | 18.7× | 67.5% | 25.6% | -112% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 17.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $208 | $149.27 · +39% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $186 | $149.27 · +24% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.