The Procter & Gamble Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
PG's FY2026 (ended 30 Jun) results show a bifurcated picture: revenue growth accelerated to 3.3% YoY to $87.0B and FCF improved to $15.1B, but operating margin compressed to 22.7% from 24.3% the prior year and Q4 EPS fell to $1.26 from $1.48 in the year-ago quarter.
The stock has rallied to $151.23 (above both the 50-day MA of $145.91 and 200-day MA of $147.74) with a P/E of 22.4x — 13.5% below the peer median — yet a P/S of 4.13x that sits 81% above peers. Insiders remain net sellers with zero open-market acquisitions over 24 months and 57 dispositions, while smart money has turned slightly negative at -0.00 as of 30 Jun. The improving top line and strong FCF support the dividend, but margin compression, Q4 earnings weakness, and insider selling at elevated prices argue for patience before turning constructive.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Operating margin fell to 22.7% in FY2026 from 24.3% in FY2025 and gross margin declined to 50.2% from 51.2%; if cost pressures continue, EPS growth could stall further.
- Q4 FY2026 EPS deterioration. Q4 EPS dropped to $1.26 from $1.48 in the year-ago quarter, a sharp decline that could signal deeper profitability issues if it carries into FY2027.
- Insider selling acceleration. Over 24 months insiders executed 57 dispositions and zero open-market acquisitions, with net share sales of 579,363; recent October 2026 sales by the CFO, CLO, and a segment CEO at $145.34 reinforce the pattern.
- Valuation stretched on P/S basis. P/S of 4.13x is 81% above the peer median of 2.28x, meaning the stock is expensive relative to revenue despite a below-median P/E of 22.4x.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · Q4 FY25 results · peer comparison. Orin's read on PG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 4.9% over twelve months, from $151.74 on 27 Oct 2025 to $159.23 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $167.20 on 27 Feb 2026; the last close is 4.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 60.6M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All PG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $27.9B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $22.3B | 0.5% |
| State Street | $15.0B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $9.7B | 0.5% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $9.3B | 0.4% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $6.9B | 0.9% |
| Morgan Stanley | $6.9B | 0.4% |
| Norges Bank | $4.7B | 0.5% |
| FMR | $4.3B | 0.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $4.2B | 0.4% |
173 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 366 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$98.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PG
Orin answers questions about PG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 23.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 24.0×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.6×near usual | 24.0× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 4.20×near usual | 4.41× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.0×below usual | 17.8× | — |
| P/B | 7.0×below usual | 7.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $167 (from $149 to $190) — 5% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$167
$149 – $190 · +5% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 23.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 28.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PGThe Procter & Gamble Company | $369B | 23.6× | 16.0× | 49.8% | 18.2% | 30% |
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $25B | 33.7× | 21.3× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| CLColgate-Palmolive Company | $73B | 36.2× | 20.8× | 60.4% | 9.7% | 631% |
| CLXThe Clorox Company | $11B | 18.1× | 13.6× | 42.3% | 8.7% | n/m |
| ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $39B | 212× | 27.3× | 75.5% | 1.2% | 5% |
| KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $37B | 11.1× | 13.3× | 36.5% | 19.9% | 163% |
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | $37B | 22.3× | 14.1× | 58.2% | 10.8% | 16% |
- CLX: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 23.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now23.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $207 a share — 30% above the $158.97 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $207 | 30% above $158.97 |
| Levered | $202 | 27% above $158.97 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.