Packaging Corporation of America
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
PKG's revenue acceleration is genuine—Q2 2026 revenue grew 14.7% YoY to $2.49B with two consecutive EPS beats—but FY2025 net income declined 4.5% to $769M as total debt surged to $4.36B from $2.77B and gross margin compressed to 21.0% from 24.7% in FY2022.
At 31.0x trailing P/E versus AMCR's 16.6x, the stock prices in significant margin recovery that has yet to materialize, while insiders sold a net $17.5M over 24 months with zero open-market purchases. Hold pending the Q3 2026 report on October 22 for evidence that Greif-driven volume is converting to operating leverage and debt paydown rather than just top-line inflation.
What could go wrong
- Debt burden. Total debt jumped to $4.36B in FY2025 from $2.77B in FY2024, raising interest costs that contributed to the 4.5% net income decline despite 7.2% revenue growth.
- Margin compression. Gross margin fell to 21.0% in FY2025 from 24.7% in FY2022, and operating margin declined to 14.0% from 16.8%, indicating input-cost and integration pressure from the Greif acquisition.
- Valuation premium. At 31.0x P/E, PKG trades at roughly double AMCR's 16.6x, leaving little room for disappointment if Q3 2026 results miss expectations.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insider net dollar flow is -$17.5M with 6 dispositions and 0 open-market acquisitions; the President and an EVP sold shares in August 2026 at $250–257.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · FY25 fundamentals · fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on PKG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 22.5% over twelve months, from $206.61 on 27 Oct 2025 to $253.01 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $257.43 on 11 Aug 2026; the last close is 1.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.4M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All PKG filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 21 Oct | — | on file |
| 13G | 7 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 7 Aug | Packaging Corporation of America reported net sales of $2,489.9 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 14.7% year-over-year. | read |
| 8-K | 22 Jul | Packaging Corporation of America reported second quarter 2026 financial results on July 22, 2026. | read |
| 13G | 15 May | — | on file |
| 8-K | 13 May | The only material disclosure is the May 12, 2026 stockholder vote contained in Item 5.07. | read |
| 10-Q | 8 May | Q1 2026 net income fell 16% YoY to $171 million ($1.91 diluted EPS) from $204 million ($2.26) despite 10.6% higher sales of $2.37 billion, driven by $60 million of special-item… | read |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.8B | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $882.4M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $748.1M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $593.4M | 0.0% |
| Royal Bank of Canada | $532.8M | 0.1% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $468.0M | 0.1% |
82 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 89 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$17.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PKG
Orin answers questions about PKG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 31.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 19.1×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 31.0×above usual | 19.1× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 2.29×above usual | 1.86× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.7×above usual | 10.8× | — |
| P/B | 4.8×above usual | 3.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $278 (from $246 to $312) — 10% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$278
$246 – $312 · +10% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 31.0× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (AMCR 16.8×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PKGPackaging Corporation of America | $23B | 31.0× | 13.7× | 20.5% | 7.4% | 16% |
| AMCRAmcor plc | $21B | 16.8× | 10.3× | 19.3% | 4.6% | 9% |
| IPInternational Paper Company | $18B | lost money | — | 27.7% | −14.2% | −22% |
- IP: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 31.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now31.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $170 a share — 33% below the $252.47 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $170 | 33% below $252.47 |
| Levered | $176 | 30% below $252.47 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.