Prologis, Inc. PLD
Prologis stays a hold as accelerating operational momentum — Q2 2026 revenue grew 11.1% YoY to $2.43B and diluted EPS of $1.13 beat estimates by 51% — is tempered by FY2025's sharp margin compression (gross margin fell to 59.6% from 74.9%, operating margin to 40.2% from 53.8%) and total debt rising to $35.0B. The stock trades at a P/E discount to peers (29.8x vs 32.5x median) and EV/EBITDA discount (19.1x vs 20.6x) but carries a 34.6% P/S premium, while sitting below both its 50-day ($140.92) and 200-day ($137.84) moving averages with RSI at 38.2.
Record leasing, 95.5% occupancy, and a data center development pipeline underpin the bull case, but margin stabilization and leverage trajectory need to confirm before turning more constructive.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. FY2025 gross margin collapsed to 59.6% from 74.9% and operating margin to 40.2% from 53.8%; if quarterly margins do not rebound, earnings quality is deteriorating despite revenue growth.
- Rising leverage. Total debt climbed to $35.0B as of FY2025 from $31.5B in FY2024; further debt-funded growth or acquisitions could pressure the balance sheet and credit profile.
- Technical downtrend. Stock at $133.96 is below both its 50-day ($140.92) and 200-day ($137.84) moving averages with negative MACD histogram, signaling bearish momentum.
- Sector sentiment and insider selling. Bearish REIT commentary questions the income-investing thesis, and CEO Moghadam sold 50,000 shares at $149.91 on July 16, 2026 for $7.5M.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q2 2026 · earnings_surprises 2026-07-16 · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024. Orin's read on PLD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PLD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $7.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $7.5B | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
120 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 185 Form 4 filings, net −$12.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PLD
Orin answers questions about PLD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.7× | 35.1× | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.1× | 21.3× | — |
| P/S | 13.58× | 15.27× | — |
| P/B | 2.3× | 2.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.70σ from its own mean).
10.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $5.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$155
$135 – $170 · +17% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLDPrologis, Inc. | $125B | 29.7× | 19.1× | 29.1% | 45.8% | 8% |
| AMTAmerican Tower Corporation | $78B | 23.0× | 17.2× | 73.2% | 30.9% | 90% |
| DLRDigital Realty Trust, Inc. | $67B | 83.4× | 24.4× | 13.8% | 11.7% | 3% |
| EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc. | $11B | 35.5× | 22.5× | 44.2% | 40.5% | 9% |
| EQIXEquinix, Inc. | $102B | 66.3× | 27.7× | 51.6% | 15.6% | 11% |
| EXRExtra Space Storage Inc. | $28B | 29.2× | 13.2× | 23.0% | 28.0% | 7% |
| PSAPublic Storage | $53B | 27.1× | 18.6× | 60.4% | 41.8% | 22% |
| SPGSimon Property Group, Inc. | $66B | 14.5× | 12.2× | 84.6% | 66.4% | 109% |
| WELLWelltower Inc. | $168B | 121.1× | 61.7× | 38.8% | 10.7% | 3% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 8.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $101 | $147.22 · −32% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $62 | $147.22 · −58% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.