Prologis, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Prologis remains a hold after Q3 2026 results confirmed operational momentum but did not resolve margin and balance-sheet concerns.
Revenue grew 7.8% YoY to $2.39B in Q3 2026, core FFO of $1.60/share beat the $1.58 consensus, and management cited rising occupancy and demand from data center and advanced manufacturing customers. However, FY2025 margins compressed sharply (gross margin 59.6% vs 74.9% in FY2024, operating margin 40.2% vs 53.8%), total debt rose to $35.0B from $31.5B, and the stock at $125.75 trades below both its 50-day ($135.70) and 200-day ($137.97) moving averages with RSI at 34.0, while commanding a P/E premium of 3.7% and EV/EBITDA premium of 19.8% versus peer medians.
What could go wrong
- Persistent margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 59.6% from 74.9% and operating margin to 40.2% from 53.8% in FY2024; Q3 2026 quarterly gross profit of $371M on $2.39B revenue suggests continued pressure at the gross-profit level.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $35.0B as of FY2025 from $31.5B in FY2024, with higher borrowing costs cited as a headwind in pre-earnings commentary.
- Premium valuation vs peers. PLD trades at 27.7x P/E vs 26.7x peer median, 12.8x P/S vs 10.3x median (24.5% premium), and 18.0x EV/EBITDA vs 15.1x median (19.8% premium), limiting upside if growth disappoints.
- Declining institutional and insider sentiment. Smart money score fell to 0.03 as of Q2 2026 from 0.062 a year earlier; insiders are net sellers at -161,316 shares over the trailing 24-month window.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 2026 results · news, 15 Oct · Q3 2026 and Q3 2025 results · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on PLD; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 0.5% over twelve months, from $127.08 on 27 Oct 2025 to $126.47 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $150.06 on 16 Jul 2026; the last close is 15.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 16.3M, on 4 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All PLD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $14.0B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.3B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $7.6B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $7.5B | 0.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.2B | 0.2% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.2B | 0.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Northern Trust | $1.8B | 0.2% |
123 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 201 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$21.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PLD
Orin answers questions about PLD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 27.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 35.8×); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.9×below usual | 35.8× | 42.4× |
| P/S | 12.8×below usual | 15.3× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.1×below usual | 21.3× | — |
| P/B | 2.1×below usual | 2.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $155 (from $136 to $170) — 22% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$155
$136 – $170 · +22% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 27.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 26.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLDPrologis, Inc. | $120B | 27.9× | 18.1× | n/a | 45.5% | 8% |
| CUBECubeSmart | $9B | 27.8× | 18.0× | n/a | 29.4% | 12% |
| EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc. | $11B | 33.4× | 21.6× | n/a | 41.0% | 9% |
| FRFirst Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. | $7B | 20.4× | 14.2× | n/a | 46.1% | 13% |
| PSAPublic Storage | $58B | 32.6× | 20.7× | n/a | 37.8% | 18% |
| REXRRexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | $9B | lost money | — | n/a | −47.8% | −6% |
| STAGSTAG Industrial, Inc. | $7B | 25.7× | 11.0× | n/a | 29.9% | 7% |
| TRNOTerreno Realty Corporation | $7B | 20.1× | 16.1× | n/a | 68.1% | 8% |
- REXR: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- PLD, CUBE, EGP, FR, PSA, REXR, STAG, TRNO: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 27.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now27.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $92 a share — 27% below the $126.44 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $92 | 27% below $126.44 |
| Levered | $56 | 56% below $126.44 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.