Philip Morris International Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Philip Morris International's smoke-free transformation is clearly working — FY2025 revenue grew 7.3% to $40.6B with operating margin expanding to 36.6% and diluted EPS surging 60.6% to $7.26, while Q2 2026 revenue accelerated to 10.4% YoY growth at $11.2B and the company just posted its eighth consecutive EPS beat with Q3 2026 actual EPS of $2.36 versus $2.30 estimated.
However, at 28.7x trailing earnings — an 82.4% premium to the peer median of 15.7x — against $48.8B in total debt and negative book equity of -$10.0B, the stock at $199.90 already discounts near-flawless execution, and net insider dispositions of 158,150 shares ($28.8M) over 24 months plus a declining smart money score from 0.21 to 0.084 offer no confirmation that the rally has further to run.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 28.7x PE versus peer median 15.7x (82.4% premium) and EV/EBITDA of 19.0x versus 12.4x (52.4% premium), any growth deceleration could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Leverage and negative equity. Total debt of $48.8B against negative stockholders' equity of -$10.0B limits financial flexibility; a recent article flagged a $43B debt load alongside the 8.8% dividend increase.
- ZYN competitive pressure. A Seeking Alpha Q3 preview noted ZYN's competitive position in the U.S. is under pressure, with Q3 and Q4 results critical for justifying PM's premium valuation.
- Insider and smart money divergence. Net insider dispositions of 158,150 shares ($28.8M) over 24 months and smart money score declining from 0.21 (Q3 2025) to 0.084 (Q2 2026) suggest sophisticated holders are trimming.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison. Orin's read on PM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 32.2% over twelve months, from $153.21 on 27 Oct 2025 to $202.62 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $205.58 on 14 Oct 2026; the last close is 1.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 18.1M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All PM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | $24.1B | 2.8% |
| BlackRock | $19.5B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $18.4B | 0.4% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $15.2B | 2.1% |
| State Street | $10.1B | 0.3% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $8.8B | 0.5% |
| FMR | $8.4B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $7.1B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.5B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $4.6B | 0.2% |
149 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 49 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$28.8M. Of the 49 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PM
Orin answers questions about PM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 29.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 18.7×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.6×above usual | 18.7× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 7.32×above usual | 4.94× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.0×above usual | 14.5× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $215 (from $201 to $225) — 6% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$215
$201 – $225 · +6% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 29.6× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (MO 15.5×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMPhilip Morris International Inc. | $316B | 29.6× | 19.0× | 67.7% | 24.8% | n/m |
| MOAltria Group, Inc. | $123B | 15.5× | 12.3× | 69.9% | 37.8% | n/m |
- PM, MO: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 29.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now29.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $181 a share — 11% below the $202.92 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $181 | 11% below $202.92 |
| Levered | $200 | 1% below $202.92 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.