Sandisk Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Sandisk's FY2026 results (fiscal year ended 3 Jul) confirm an extraordinary NAND cycle upswing: revenue of $20.25B with a 71.5% gross margin, $11.43B net income, and $11.49B free cash flow — a dramatic swing from the $1.64B net loss in FY2025.
The P/E of 20.34 trades at a roughly 51% discount to the peer median of 41.41, but the P/S of 11.57 is 241% above the peer median of 3.39, signaling the market has already priced in sustained AI-driven pricing power that NAND's cyclical history (FY2023 operating margin of -33.4%) argues against. With the stock pulling back to $1,581.82 from recent highs, bearish MACD, RSI at 43.8, and negative news flow around Samsung's disappointing preliminary results and OpenAI-related memory-stock panic, the risk/reward remains balanced; hold pending evidence that FY2027 pricing holds or that the cycle has structurally changed.
What could go wrong
- NAND cycle peak. FY2026's 71.5% gross margin and 61.2% operating margin are far above FY2022's 33.3% gross margin and 12.3% operating margin, and NAND has historically been deeply cyclical — FY2023 saw a -33.4% operating margin. Samsung's disappointing preliminary results (news, 8 Oct) suggest pricing may already be cooling.
- Insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 87,777 shares for a net value of -$132.79M with zero open-market acquisitions and 74 dispositions. Recent activity includes the CLO selling 600 shares at $1,734.94 on 1 Oct.
- Technical deterioration. As of 9 Oct, MACD histogram is -24.66 with the line below signal, RSI at 43.8, and the stock is testing its 50-day MA at $1,582.50, suggesting near-term momentum has turned negative.
- P/S premium implies high expectations. P/S of 11.57 is 241% above the peer median of 3.39, meaning any revenue disappointment from a cyclical downturn would compress the multiple significantly.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals, year to 3 Jul · fundamentals, year to 27 Jun 2025 · peer comparison, 9 Oct · insider trades, 24 months to 1 Oct. Orin's read on SNDK; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 639% over twelve months, from $176.49 on 27 Oct 2025 to $1,304.84 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $2,335.00 on 25 Jun 2026; the last close is 44.1% below it.
- The 200-day average starts on 28 Nov 2025, once there were 200 trading days to average.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 43.0M, on 26 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All SNDK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $23.4B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $22.0B | 0.5% |
| FMR | $17.9B | 0.8% |
| State Street | $13.5B | 0.4% |
| Invesco | $12.8B | 1.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $8.2B | 0.4% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $8.1B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $8.0B | 0.4% |
| Clear Street Group | $6.8B | 17.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $5.5B | 0.3% |
152 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 176 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$132.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 39 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about SNDK
Orin answers questions about SNDK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.8× | — | 46.1× |
| P/S | 9.31× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.9× | — | — |
| P/B | 12.2× | — | — |
- Sandisk began trading on 13 Feb 2025 (regular trading from 24 Feb), when Western Digital spun it off. Earlier figures under this ticker are the old SanDisk's, which Western Digital bought in 2016, so they are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $2,164 (from $1,200 to $3,050) — 66% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$2,164
$1,200 – $3,050 · +66% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 13.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDKSandisk Corporation | $189B | 16.8× | 13.9× | 71.5% | 56.5% | 93% |
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | $1.05T | 12.3× | 9.3× | 80.7% | 63.8% | 92% |
| STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | $152B | 33.9× | 27.1× | 50.4% | 31.9% | 245% |
| WDCWestern Digital Corporation | $143B | 13.3× | 22.7× | 52.6% | 69.2% | 114% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $16 a share — 99% below the $1,302.34 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $16 | 99% below $1,302.34 |
| Levered | $98 | 92% below $1,302.34 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.