Truist Financial Corporation TFC
TFC's earnings recovery is genuine — 2025 operating income swung to $6.35B from negative territory in 2023–2024, EPS recovered to $3.82 from -$1.09, and the stock trades at a 14.4% P/E discount and 19.9% P/S discount to the regional bank peer median — but the risk/reward at $51.84 is balanced. The CEO sold all 13,250 common shares on July 20, 2026 at $52.36, smart money scores have decelerated from 0.0464 to 0.0148 over two quarters, and multiple institutional holders (BofA, Dai-ichi Life, ABN Amro) trimmed positions, all of which temper enthusiasm despite the fundamental improvement.
With RSI at 53 and the stock above both its 50-day ($50.21) and 200-day ($48.75) moving averages, the technical setup is neutral and the valuation discount is not wide enough to offset the softening ownership signals.
What could go wrong
- CEO share liquidation. Chairman & CEO William Rogers sold all 13,250 common shares on July 20, 2026 at $52.36, reducing his direct common stock holdings to zero — a potential confidence signal despite net insider share accumulation of 311,594 over 24 months.
- Institutional outflows. Bank of America Corp DE cut its stake by 1.3% (484,471 shares), Dai-ichi Life reduced by 20.1%, and ABN Amro trimmed 45.3% in recent 13F filings, suggesting broad-based institutional de-risking.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $69.8B against stockholders' equity of $65.2B drives an EV/EBITDA of 17.84x, which is 9.6% above the peer median of 16.27x, partially offsetting the P/E and P/S discounts.
- Smart money deceleration. Smart money score declined from 0.0464 in September 2025 to 0.0148 as of March 2026, indicating waning sophisticated-investor conviction even as fund count rose to 56.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2023–2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 and FY2023 · Peer relative composite · Insider transactions. Orin's read on TFC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TFC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
108 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 82 Form 4 filings, net −$7.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TFC
Orin answers questions about TFC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.7× | — | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.0× | 13.6× | — |
| P/S | 1.92× | 2.38× | — |
| P/B | 0.9× | 0.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.47σ from its own mean).
-1.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $5.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$55
$45 – $62 · +16% against today's price
- 27 buy or overweight
- 24 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TFCTruist Financial Corporation | $59B | 10.7× | 17.0× | 64.0% | 19.1% | 9% |
| CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc. | $27B | 13.9× | 9.8× | 72.4% | 18.5% | 8% |
| FITBFifth Third Bancorp | $47B | 17.5× | 18.7× | 68.5% | 15.8% | 8% |
| KEYKeyCorp | $22B | 11.7× | 18.3× | 64.5% | 19.4% | 10% |
| PNCThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | $89B | 12.3× | 15.0× | 67.9% | 21.7% | 12% |
| USBU.S. Bancorp | $91B | 11.7× | 11.1× | 63.8% | 18.7% | 12% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 13.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $239 | $50.05 · +377% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $95 | $50.05 · +91% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.