Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Thermo Fisher's operational momentum is genuine — Q3 2026 (ended 26 Sep) revenue grew 9.1% YoY to $12.137B, extending the acceleration from Q2 2026's 10.5% and Q1 2026's 6.2%, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last eight quarters including a 4.4% surprise on October 21.
At a PE of 36.9x the stock trades at a 27.4% discount to the peer median of 50.8x, which is attractive for a franchise of this quality. However, total debt rose to $39.39B in FY2025 from $32.78B in FY2024 while free cash flow declined to $6.29B from $7.27B, and insiders remain persistent net sellers at -$162.2M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions. With the stock at $687.37 — well above both the 50-day MA of $640.15 and 200-day MA of $548.30 — the positive operational trajectory appears largely priced in, and the risk/reward is balanced enough to wait for evidence of debt reduction and FCF recovery alongside the top-line acceleration.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet deterioration. Total debt increased to $39.39B in FY2025 from $32.78B in FY2024 while free cash flow fell to $6.29B from $7.27B, raising leverage concerns if revenue growth stalls.
- Insider selling pressure. Over 24 months insiders net sold 284,868 shares worth $162.2M with zero open-market acquisitions, signaling limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Valuation stretched after rally. Stock at $687.37 trades well above the 200-day MA of $548.30 and 50-day MA of $640.15; a GuruFocus DCF analysis cited an intrinsic value of $421 versus the current price near $690.
- Margin compression trend. Gross margin declined from 50.1% in FY2021 to 40.9% in FY2025, and operating margin fell from 26.3% to 18.2% over the same period, though it has stabilized recently at 18.2%.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 2026 results · Q1–Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison. Orin's read on TMO; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 22.9% over twelve months, from $563.78 on 27 Oct 2025 to $693.02 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $696.49 on 15 Oct 2026; the last close is 0.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.8M, on 23 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TMO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $15.5B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $12.2B | 0.3% |
| State Street | $8.4B | 0.3% |
| FMR | $7.1B | 0.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $5.4B | 0.3% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $4.3B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.2B | 0.2% |
| Franklin Resources | $3.6B | 0.8% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.1B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $3.1B | 0.4% |
149 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 414 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$162.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TMO
Orin answers questions about TMO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 36.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 32.6×); the typical Healthcare company on the NYSE is at 25.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 36.5×above usual | 32.6× | 25.8× |
| P/S | 5.41×above usual | 4.81× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.0×above usual | 20.8× | — |
| P/B | 4.7×above usual | 4.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $688 (from $520 to $800) — 1% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$688
$520 – $800 · −1% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 36.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 50.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMOThermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | $256B | 36.5× | 26.0× | 41.4% | 15.0% | 13% |
| AAgilent Technologies, Inc. | $50B | 34.9× | 25.7× | 53.7% | 19.5% | 20% |
| DHRDanaher Corporation | $163B | 37.9× | 26.0× | 58.6% | 16.9% | 8% |
| MTDMettler-Toledo International Inc. | $34B | 36.3× | 27.1× | 59.0% | 22.2% | n/m |
| RVTYRevvity, Inc. | $18B | 77.1× | 26.6× | 52.1% | 8.2% | 3% |
| TECHBio-Techne Corporation | $11B | 62.1× | 33.3× | 65.8% | 15.0% | 9% |
| WATWaters Corporation | $46B | 117× | 53.3× | 50.8% | 3.6% | 2% |
- MTD: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 36.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now36.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 25.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now25.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $428 a share — 39% below the $696.57 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $428 | 39% below $696.57 |
| Levered | $309 | 56% below $696.57 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.