Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. TMO
Thermo Fisher's revenue recovery to $44.6B in FY2025 with 3.9% YoY growth and a strong Q2 2026 showing 10% reported revenue growth and 5% organic growth support the biopharma turnaround narrative, but structural margin erosion remains unresolved: gross margin has compressed from 50.1% in FY2021 to 37.7% in FY2025, and FCF declined to $6.3B from $7.0B over the same period. The stock at $585.51 trades at a 31.4x PE, an 11.4% discount to the peer median of 35.5x, which is reasonable but not deeply compelling given total debt of $39.4B and persistent insider net selling of $104M over 24 months.
With RSI at 60.9 and the MACD histogram turning negative, near-term momentum is cooling after a significant run from the 50-day MA of $530.86, keeping risk/reward balanced rather than attractive.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Gross margin fell from 50.1% in FY2021 to 37.7% in FY2025 and operating margin from 26.3% to 18.2%; if this trend continues despite revenue growth, earnings quality deteriorates further.
- Leverage and FCF pressure. Total debt rose to $39.4B in FY2025 while FCF declined to $6.3B from $7.0B in FY2021, limiting financial flexibility for continued M&A-driven strategy.
- Insider distribution. Over 24 months insiders net sold 60,750 shares for $104M; recent August 2026 option exercises by EVP Shafer were immediately sold at $600/share, signaling limited insider conviction at current prices.
- Valuation re-rating risk. EV/EBITDA of 23.4x sits 5.7% above the peer median of 22.2x despite inferior margin trends, leaving room for multiple compression if growth disappoints.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · derived_metrics, FY2021 and FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2021 and FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025. Orin's read on TMO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TMO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $12.2B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $8.4B | 0.3% of fund |
| Fmr | $7.1B | 0.3% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $5.4B | 0.3% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $4.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.2B | 0.2% of fund |
147 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 409 Form 4 filings, net −$131.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 18 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TMO
Orin answers questions about TMO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 35.7× | 32.3× | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.0× | 20.8× | — |
| P/S | 5.31× | 4.81× | — |
| P/B | 4.7× | 4.4× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.41σ from its own mean).
16.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $6.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$623
$520 – $748 · −6% against today's price
- 36 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMOThermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | $246B | 35.7× | 26.0× | 41.0% | 15.1% | 13% |
| AAgilent Technologies, Inc. | $47B | 32.5× | 24.8× | 53.7% | 19.5% | 20% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | $179B | 33.3× | 20.8× | 56.8% | 11.6% | 11% |
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | $219B | 25.0× | 15.9× | 72.7% | 22.9% | 89% |
| DHRDanaher Corporation | $156B | 39.2× | 24.9× | 58.5% | 15.9% | 8% |
| IQVIQVIA Holdings Inc. | $44B | 32.9× | 16.6× | 26.2% | 8.1% | 22% |
| ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc. | $141B | 45.0× | 30.6× | 66.7% | 28.4% | 18% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $366B | 117.5× | 29.8× | 75.4% | 4.8% | 7% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 7.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $539 | $484.44 · +11% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $393 | $484.44 · −19% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.