Tesla, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Tesla's revenue growth is reaccelerating — Q2 2026 revenue rose 25.5% YoY to $28.24B — but profitability is not following, with FY2025 operating margin compressing to 4.6% from 16.8% in 2022 and EPS falling 47% YoY to $1.08.
At 316.7x trailing earnings versus an auto-peer median of 5.46x, the valuation embeds enormous expectations for robotaxi and AI monetization that have yet to materialize in reported financials. With the stock trading below its 200-day MA of $387.26 and a negative MACD histogram as of 20 Oct, technicals are mixed-to-cautious ahead of Q3 2026 earnings, making this a wait-and-see situation rather than a commitment either way.
What could go wrong
- Margin deterioration persists. FY2025 gross margin of 18.0% and operating margin of 4.6% are far below FY2022 levels of 25.6% and 16.8% respectively; if Q3 2026 does not show margin recovery alongside revenue growth, the thesis that reaccelerating revenue will eventually restore profitability weakens.
- Extreme valuation compression risk. At 316.7x P/E and 14.24x P/S versus peer medians of 5.46x and 0.31x, any disappointment in robotaxi timelines or AI monetization could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Insider selling signal. CEO Musk sold approximately 17.53M shares at $404.66 in June 2026, and CFO Taneja has been regularly selling shares, including dispositions in September 2026 at $360.13.
- Earnings estimate misses. Q2 2026 actual EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.50 estimate by 34%, and Q1 2025 missed by 34.7%, showing a pattern of earnings volatility that could undermine confidence ahead of Q3 2026 results.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY22 and FY25 fundamentals · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on TSLA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 9.9% over twelve months, from $452.42 on 27 Oct 2025 to $407.46 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $489.88 on 16 Dec 2025; the last close is 16.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 118.9M, on 13 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All TSLA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $90.1B | 1.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $77.4B | 1.7% |
| State Street | $49.4B | 1.5% |
| Geode Capital Management | $28.9B | 1.5% |
| Invesco | $23.3B | 1.8% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $20.8B | 0.9% |
| Capital World Investors | $19.2B | 2.3% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $17.3B | 1.0% |
| FMR | $16.7B | 0.7% |
| Morgan Stanley | $16.3B | 0.9% |
208 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 241 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $557.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 35 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TSLA
Orin answers questions about TSLA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 412× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NASDAQ is at 82.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 412× | — | 82.5× |
| P/S | 15.6×above usual | 13.2× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 143× | — | — |
| P/B | 14.8×below usual | 17.7× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 30.6× to 381× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 21.5× to 123× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $443 (from $157 to $840) — 9% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$443
$157 – $840 · +9% against the last close
- 15 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 412× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (GM 18.2×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLATesla, Inc. | $1.61T | 412× | 143× | 19.3% | 3.1% | 4% |
| FFord Motor Company | $47B | lost money | — | 10.8% | −3.9% | −19% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | $68B | 18.2× | 11.6× | 9.0% | 2.1% | 6% |
- F: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 412× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now412×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 82.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now82.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $17 a share — 96% below the $405.89 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $17 | 96% below $405.89 |
| Levered | $16 | 96% below $405.89 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.