Tesla, Inc. TSLA
Tesla's core automotive earnings power continues to erode — FY2025 revenue fell to $94.8B with operating margin compressing to 4.59% and EPS declining to $1.08 from $4.31 in FY2023 — yet the stock has rallied to $367.95 with a bullish MACD histogram of 4.26 and smart money flipping positive at 0.81 as of Q2 2026 from -0.42 the prior quarter. The valuation remains extreme at 295.6x trailing earnings versus an auto-peer median of 17.8x, and the announced $25B 2026 capital budget directed at Optimus and robotaxi introduces years of uncertain returns with Wall Street expecting negative cash flow until 2029.
The improved technical and flow picture offsets but does not resolve the fundamental deterioration, making this a wait-and-see situation rather than a conviction call in either direction.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 295.6x earnings and 13.3x sales versus peer medians of 17.8x and 0.36x respectively, any disappointment in robotaxi or Optimus timelines could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Capex escalation. The 2026 capital budget of $25B reported in news dwarfs FY2025 capex of $8.5B, risking years of negative free cash flow before new ventures generate returns.
- Margin deterioration. Gross margin has fallen from 25.6% in FY2022 to 18.03% in FY2025, and operating margin from 16.76% to 4.59%, with no clear inflection yet visible.
- Insider selling. CFO Taneja sold shares at $402.20 on June 8, 2026, and Musk exercised and disposed of 17.5M shares at $404.66 on June 16, 2026, consistent with distribution rather than accumulation.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2023 annual + derived_metrics · peer_relative · smart_money as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on TSLA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All TSLA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $77.4B | 1.7% of fund |
| State Street | $49.4B | 1.5% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $28.9B | 1.5% of fund |
| Invesco | $23.3B | 1.8% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $20.8B | 0.9% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $19.2B | 2.3% of fund |
206 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 241 Form 4 filings, net $137.5B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 34 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about TSLA
Orin answers questions about TSLA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 322.1× | 181.1× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 124.3× | 87.6× | — |
| P/S | 14.49× | 13.22× | — |
| P/B | 14.2× | 17.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.24σ from its own mean).
42.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $6.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$463
$360 – $840 · +22% against today's price
- 33 buy or overweight
- 34 hold
- 15 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLATesla, Inc. | $1.50T | 322.1× | 124.3× | 18.9% | 3.7% | 5% |
| FFord Motor Company | $52B | — | — | 10.8% | -3.9% | -19% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | $76B | 41.9× | 13.9× | 5.7% | 1.0% | 3% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 669.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $19 | $383.48 · −95% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $18 | $383.48 · −95% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.