UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH
UnitedHealth remains a buy as the FY2025 margin trough—operating margin compressed to 4.2% with EPS falling to $13.23 from $23.86 in 2023—appears to be bottoming, supported by a positive smart-money score of 0.39 as of Q2 2026 (up from -0.15 in Q1 2026) and new institutional positions including Barrow Hanley's $607.7M stake. Revenue growth of 11.8% in FY2025 to $447.6B demonstrates top-line resilience, and at 25.8x earnings versus a peer median of 34.0x, the stock trades at a 24% discount despite its diversified platform.
The 24-month insider net buying of $278.8M across 192 transactions reinforces internal confidence, though recent August sales by the Optum CEO and CAO warrant monitoring.
What could go wrong
- Margin recovery stalls. Gross margin fell from 24.5% in 2023 to 18.5% in FY2025; if medical cost trends reaccelerate, operating margin may not recover from the current 4.2% level.
- EPS erosion continues. EPS has declined two consecutive years—from $23.86 (2023) to $15.51 (2024) to $13.23 (2025)—and a third year of declines would undermine the recovery narrative.
- Recent insider selling. The Optum CEO sold shares on August 5 and August 21, 2026, and the CAO sold on August 11, 2026, which could signal near-term caution despite the broader 24-month net-buy pattern.
- High-profile exits. David Tepper sold every UNH share in Q2 2026 per recent reporting, and while other institutions are entering, marquee exits can pressure sentiment.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2023 · fundamentals FY2025 and FY2023 · derived_metrics FY2025 revenue_growth_yoy; fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative. Orin's read on UNH; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All UNH filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $24.7B | 0.5% of fund |
| State Street | $19.0B | 0.6% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $12.4B | 1.5% of fund |
| Fmr | $11.6B | 0.5% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $10.2B | 0.5% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $9.6B | 1.0% of fund |
198 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 193 Form 4 filings, net $277.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about UNH
Orin answers questions about UNH from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.9× | 24.9× | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.8× | 16.6× | — |
| P/S | 0.75× | 1.31× | — |
| P/B | 3.4× | 5.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.66σ from its own mean).
8.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $16.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$474
$373 – $529 · +28% against today's price
- 43 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $337B | 23.9× | 14.8× | 22.5% | 3.1% | 15% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | $179B | 33.3× | 20.8× | 56.8% | 11.6% | 11% |
| CICigna Corporation | $71B | 11.1× | 8.2× | 11.7% | 2.3% | 15% |
| CVSCVS Health Corporation | $110B | 22.4× | 13.0× | 14.2% | 1.2% | 6% |
| ELVElevance Health Inc. | $86B | 17.7× | 13.4× | 39.0% | 2.5% | 11% |
| HUMHumana Inc. | $45B | 35.2× | 17.1× | 13.7% | 0.9% | 7% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $366B | 117.5× | 29.8× | 75.4% | 4.8% | 7% |
| TMOThermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | $246B | 35.7× | 26.0× | 41.0% | 15.1% | 13% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 28.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $186 | $406.07 · −54% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $305 | $406.07 · −25% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.