UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
UnitedHealth's turnaround is confirmed by a clean Q3 2026 earnings beat—actual EPS of $4.69 versus $4.14 estimated, a 13.3% surprise—with the company raising full-year 2026 guidance again and reporting a medical-cost ratio of 88.4%, signaling that cost pressures that crushed FY2025 margins (operating margin of 4.2% versus 8.1% in FY2024) are abating.
However, revenue growth has decelerated sharply to just 0.4% YoY in Q2 2026 from 11.8% for full-year FY2025, the stock trades at a 29.8% PE premium to the peer median (24.3x vs 18.8x), and the smart-money score as of 30 Jun is near zero at 0.02, suggesting institutional conviction is thin despite the recovery narrative. With shares at $378.52 sitting below the 50-day MA of $388.46, much of the trough-to-recovery re-rating appears already in the price.
What could go wrong
- Revenue growth stall persists. Q2 2026 revenue grew only 0.4% YoY versus 11.8% for FY2025; if top-line doesn't reaccelerate, the premium multiple becomes harder to justify.
- Medical cost ratio reversion. Q3 2026 MCR of 88.4% shows improvement, but any uptick in utilization trends could reverse margin gains and threaten the raised guidance.
- Valuation premium. PE of 24.3x is a 29.8% premium to the peer median of 18.8x, and PS of 0.76x is 183% above the peer median, leaving limited margin of safety.
- Weak institutional conviction. Smart-money score of 0.02 as of 30 Jun is near zero and down from 0.13 in Q1 2026, indicating hedge funds are not positioning aggressively despite the turnaround.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates · fundamentals · quarterly results · peer comparison. Orin's read on UNH; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 12.1% over twelve months, from $365.98 on 27 Oct 2025 to $410.39 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $436.35 on 21 Jul 2026; the last close is 5.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 65.8M, on 27 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All UNH filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $31.9B | 0.5% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $24.7B | 0.5% |
| State Street | $19.0B | 0.6% |
| Capital World Investors | $12.4B | 1.5% |
| FMR | $11.6B | 0.5% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $10.2B | 0.5% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $9.6B | 1.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $9.0B | 0.5% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $8.5B | 0.5% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $8.2B | 1.1% |
201 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 217 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $30.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about UNH
Orin answers questions about UNH from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 23.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 25.0×); the typical Healthcare company on the NYSE is at 25.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.4×below usual | 25.0× | 25.8× |
| P/S | 0.82×below usual | 1.35× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.9×below usual | 16.6× | — |
| P/B | 3.6×below usual | 5.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $477 (from $380 to $531) — 16% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$477
$380 – $531 · +16% against the last close
- 20 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 23.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 18.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $368B | 23.4× | 14.9× | 22.8% | 3.5% | 16% |
| CICigna Corporation | $80B | 13.3× | 11.3× | 9.4% | 2.1% | 14% |
| CNCCentene Corporation | $34B | 23.2× | 7.6× | 11.7% | 0.8% | 7% |
| CVSCVS Health Corporation | $104B | 9.4× | 8.5× | 14.2% | 2.6% | 14% |
| ELVElevance Health Inc. | $91B | 18.0× | 12.6× | 36.6% | 2.5% | 12% |
| HUMHumana Inc. | $49B | 38.6× | 18.3× | 13.7% | 0.9% | 7% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 23.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now23.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 25.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now25.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $258 a share — 37% below the $410.23 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $258 | 37% below $410.23 |
| Levered | $296 | 28% below $410.23 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.