Visa Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Visa's business momentum is accelerating — Q3 FY2026 revenue of $11.63B grew 14.4% YoY and the company has beaten EPS estimates for eight straight quarters, most recently delivering $3.32 vs. $3.23 estimated — but the stock has rallied sharply to $406.57 with RSI at 75.6, signaling an overbought condition after a run well above both the 50-day MA of $374.22 and the 200-day MA of $339.75.
FY2025 operating margin compressed to 60.0% from 65.7% in FY2024 while net income growth slowed to 1.6%, and at 34.5x earnings the stock trades at a 222% premium to the peer median P/E of 10.7, though roughly in line with Mastercard at 34.1x. Insiders remain net sellers at $146.4M over 24 months and smart-money scores have declined from 0.25 to 0.15 over the past year, suggesting the recent rally is stretching the valuation ahead of next week's earnings report.
What could go wrong
- Overbought technicals. RSI at 75.6 as of 20 Oct with the stock at $406.57, well above the 50-day MA of $374.22 and 200-day MA of $339.75, increases the risk of a pullback even on a solid earnings print.
- Margin compression. FY2025 operating margin fell to 60.0% from 65.7% in FY2024 and net income growth slowed to 1.6% despite 11.3% revenue growth, indicating rising costs that could pressure the premium multiple.
- Insider selling. Over the past 24 months insiders net sold 412,658 shares worth $146.4M with zero open-market acquisitions; the CEO exercised options at $134.76 and immediately sold shares at $358.81 on 1 Oct.
- Stretched valuation vs peers. At 34.5x P/E and 17.1x P/S, Visa trades at a 222% premium to the peer median P/E of 10.7 and 675% premium on P/S, leaving little room for disappointment on next week's earnings.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · earnings vs estimates, 28 Jul · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on V; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 15.5% over twelve months, from $347.82 on 27 Oct 2025 to $401.86 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $414.34 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 3.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 20.4M, on 13 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All V filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $47.2B | 0.7% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $36.4B | 0.8% |
| State Street | $28.4B | 0.8% |
| Morgan Stanley | $15.8B | 0.8% |
| Geode Capital Management | $15.5B | 0.8% |
| FMR | $14.7B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $12.6B | 0.6% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $12.2B | 1.2% |
| Capital World Investors | $9.7B | 1.1% |
| Bank of America | $8.0B | 0.5% |
231 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 220 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$146.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 12 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about V
Orin answers questions about V from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 28.2×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.9×below usual | 28.2× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 16.3×above usual | 15.3× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.4×above usual | 21.8× | — |
| P/B | 21.3×above usual | 12.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $430 (from $350 to $480) — 7% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$430
$350 – $480 · +7% against the last close
- 23 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 14.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVisa Inc. | $750B | 21.9× | 26.4× | 117.3% | 51.2% | 65% |
| AXPAmerican Express Company | $211B | 17.6× | n/a | n/a | 14.3% | 36% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | $25B | 9.1× | 7.0× | 47.2% | 13.4% | 11% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | $25B | lost money | 10.9× | 61.5% | −11.4% | −6% |
| MAMastercard Incorporated | $534B | 33.5× | 24.7× | 100.0% | 46.3% | 232% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | $48B | 10.6× | 7.3× | 44.5% | 13.8% | 24% |
- GPN: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- AXP: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- AXP: EV/EBITDA is not used (n/a) for a lender — the debt in its enterprise value is mostly the deposits it lends out.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $201 a share — 50% below the $399.96 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $201 | 50% below $399.96 |
| Levered | $226 | 44% below $399.96 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.