Visa Inc. V
Visa's business is accelerating — Q3 FY2026 revenue of $11.63B grew 14.4% YoY, up from 11.3% for the full FY2025, and the company has beaten EPS estimates for eight straight quarters including a 2.8% surprise in the most recent period. Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed a new ~$1.1B position as of June 30, 2026, and smart-money flows remain positive at 0.1171 with fund count rising to 80.
However, at $379.37 the stock trades at 32.2x earnings — a 110.6% premium to the peer median P/E of 15.3 — while the smart-money score has declined from 0.2283 in Q1 2026 and insiders have been net sellers to the tune of $115.6M over 24 months, including recent sales by the CEO and CFO at $364–$371. The franchise earns its premium multiple, but the current price offers insufficient margin of safety for a new position.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 32.2x earnings versus a peer median of 15.3x, any deceleration in growth or macro shock could trigger multiple contraction; even MA trades at a similar 32.4x, leaving no relative cushion.
- Declining smart-money conviction. The smart-money score fell from 0.2283 as of 2026-03-31 to 0.1171 as of 2026-06-30, suggesting institutional enthusiasm is cooling even as fund count holds at 80.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold $115.6M in shares; in August 2026 alone the CEO, CFO, and Technology President all sold at $364–$371 per share.
- Net income growth lagging revenue. FY2025 net income grew only 1.6% YoY versus revenue growth of 11.3%, and EPS growth of 4.8% was well below FY2024's 17.5%, indicating margin pressure or cost headwinds could persist.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results, period ended 2026-06-30 · fundamentals and derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · peer_relative · smart_money, as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on V; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All V filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $36.4B | 0.8% of fund |
| State Street | $28.4B | 0.8% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $15.8B | 0.8% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $15.5B | 0.8% of fund |
| Fmr | $14.7B | 0.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $12.6B | 0.6% of fund |
229 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 217 Form 4 filings, net −$119.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 11 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about V
Orin answers questions about V from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 30.7× | 27.8× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.6× | 21.8× | — |
| P/S | 15.17× | 15.28× | — |
| P/B | 19.7× | 12.6× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.04σ from its own mean).
13.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $21.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$422
$350 – $466 · +17% against today's price
- 53 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVisa Inc. | $675B | 30.7× | 23.6× | 80.2% | 50.8% | 61% |
| AXPAmerican Express Company | $204B | 18.3× | 8.8× | 84.3% | 13.6% | 34% |
| BACBank of America Corporation | $397B | 12.7× | 24.1× | 59.3% | 17.2% | 11% |
| JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co. | $904B | 14.5× | 19.7× | 62.6% | 21.9% | 18% |
| MAMastercard Incorporated | $491B | 30.7× | 22.8× | 100.0% | 46.3% | 232% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | $45B | 9.9× | 6.8× | 45.8% | 14.4% | 24% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 111.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $224 | $320.88 · −30% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $252 | $320.88 · −22% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.