Verisk Analytics, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Verisk has corrected roughly 15% from early September to $163.88 as of October 2, 2026, pushing RSI to 33.3 and the trailing P/E to 25.5x — only 3.5% above the peer median of 24.6x — while the company continues to beat earnings (Q2 2026 actual EPS of $1.98 vs $1.93 estimate) and generates robust free cash flow ($1.19B in FY2025 at a 38.8% FCF margin).
However, revenue growth has decelerated to 4.4% YoY in Q2 2026 from 7.8% in Q2 2025, below management's reaffirmed 6–8% organic constant-currency target, and total debt of $5.04B against just $309M of equity remains a structural concern. With the stock trading below both its 50-day ($184.12) and 200-day ($190.03) moving averages and MACD in bearish territory, the mixed technical and fundamental picture warrants holding until Q3 2026 results on November 5 clarify whether growth is reaccelerating.
What could go wrong
- Revenue growth deceleration. Q2 2026 YoY revenue growth of 4.4% and Q1 2026 of 3.9% are well below management's reaffirmed 6–8% organic constant-currency target, suggesting the target may be aspirational near-term.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $5.04B against stockholders' equity of just $309M as of FY2025 leaves minimal balance-sheet cushion, especially if rates remain elevated.
- Persistent insider selling. CEO and CFO have been systematically exercising options and selling shares — most recently the CEO sold at $170.70 on October 1, 2026 — with net insider value of -$13.0M over 24 months.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $163.88 is below both the 50-day MA of $184.12 and 200-day MA of $190.03 with a negative MACD histogram of -0.66, indicating sustained downward momentum.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates · FY25 fundamentals · quarterly results · peer comparison. Orin's read on VRSK; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 19.7% over twelve months, from $233.68 on 27 Oct 2025 to $187.73 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $233.68 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 19.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 18.0M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All VRSK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.9B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| AllianceBernstein | $1.1B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| BAMCO | $844.3M | 1.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $826.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $724.9M | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $418.7M | 0.1% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $308.4M | 0.2% |
102 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 153 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$19.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 16 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VRSK
Orin answers questions about VRSK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 32.0× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 40.9×); the typical Industrials company on the NASDAQ is at 18.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 32.0×below usual | 40.9× | 18.4× |
| P/S | 8.66×below usual | 13.1× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.3×below usual | 25.4× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 13.1× to 391× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $224 (from $185 to $247) — 20% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$224
$185 – $247 · +20% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 32.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 28.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc. | $28B | 32.0× | 16.3× | 67.7% | 27.7% | n/m |
| MCOMoody's Corporation | $82B | 28.8× | 22.8× | 73.1% | 35.3% | 86% |
| MSCIMSCI Inc. | $44B | 32.0× | 23.8× | 82.9% | 40.3% | n/m |
| SPGIS&P Global Inc. | $132B | 27.3× | 17.4× | 70.9% | 30.5% | 17% |
- VRSK, MSCI: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 32.0× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now32.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $237 a share — 26% above the $188.53 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $237 | 26% above $188.53 |
| Levered | $227 | 21% above $188.53 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.