Verisk Analytics, Inc. VRSK
Verisk continues to beat earnings — Q2 2026 actual EPS of $1.98 exceeded the $1.93 estimate by 2.6% — and generates robust free cash flow ($1.19B in FY2025 at a 38.8% FCF margin), but revenue growth is decelerating (4.4% YoY in Q2 2026 versus 7.8% in Q2 2025) and total debt of $5.04B against just $309M of equity creates material balance-sheet risk. At 29.8x trailing earnings — roughly 14% above the peer median of 26.2x — with a third-party DCF suggesting fair value of $104 versus the current $194.35 close, valuation leaves limited room for error even as technicals recover (bullish MACD histogram of 1.159, stock above the 50-day MA of $189.92).
The combination of slowing top-line growth, elevated leverage, and a premium multiple supports holding until growth reaccelerates or leverage meaningfully declines.
What could go wrong
- Leverage. Total debt of $5.04B against equity of $309M as of FY2025 leaves minimal balance-sheet flexibility for further acquisitions or downturn-driven stress.
- Growth deceleration. Q2 2026 revenue growth of 4.4% YoY is well below the 7.8% posted in Q2 2025, suggesting core demand is cooling.
- Valuation stretch. At 29.8x trailing PE (~14% above peer median of 26.2x), a third-party DCF estimates fair value at $104, implying significant downside from $194.35.
- Insider selling. Net insider disposition value of $11.68M over the trailing 24 months, with recent CEO and CFO stock sales at $179.95–$220.00 per share.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings_surprises (period ending 2026-07-29) · FMP FY2025 fundamentals + derived_metrics · quarterly_results (Q2 2026 and Q2 2025) · FMP FY2025 fundamentals. Orin's read on VRSK; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All VRSK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.0% of fund |
| Alliancebernstein L.P | $1.1B | 0.4% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Bamco /Ny/ | $844.3M | 1.3% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $826.0M | 0.0% of fund |
100 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 144 Form 4 filings, net −$12.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 14 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about VRSK
Orin answers questions about VRSK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 26.3× | 40.9× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.9× | 25.4× | — |
| P/S | 7.13× | 13.06× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.52σ from its own mean).
6.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$225
$185 – $247 · +29% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc. | $22B | 26.3× | 15.9× | 67.7% | 28.2% | -212% |
| EFXEquifax Inc. | $18B | 27.1× | 12.4× | 44.4% | 10.7% | 15% |
| EMEEMCOR Group, Inc. | $33B | 23.5× | 14.7× | 19.7% | 7.7% | 38% |
| HUBBHubbell Incorporated | $24B | 27.4× | 20.1× | 35.2% | 14.5% | 24% |
| IRIngersoll Rand Inc. | $30B | 31.1× | 17.0× | 37.9% | 12.1% | 9% |
| ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $37B | 34.2× | 20.2× | 31.7% | 19.4% | 25% |
| RKLBRocket Lab USA, Inc. | $41B | — | — | 37.3% | -21.5% | -8% |
| UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $36B | 10.3× | 7.1× | 65.1% | 5.6% | 23% |
| VLTOVeralto Corporation | $23B | 24.0× | 18.2× | 60.2% | 17.3% | 33% |
| WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | $49B | 39.2× | 22.7× | 34.3% | 10.6% | 11% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 3.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $300 | $184.25 · +63% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $277 | $184.25 · +50% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.