Wells Fargo & Company WFC
Wells Fargo trades at a compelling discount to large-bank peers — 14.6% below the peer median P/E of 14.60 and 35.6% below the median EV/EBITDA of 24.37 — with FY2025 diluted EPS up 17.7% to $6.32 and smart money flows turning positive (score 0.1316 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, up from -0.1188 in Q1 2026). However, FY2025 operating cash flow swung to -$19.0B, total debt surged 51% to $425.7B, and revenue declined 1.5% to $123.5B, while a recent DCF analysis pegs fair value at $79 versus the current $85.95 close.
With the stock sitting right at its 50-day MA ($85.96) and MACD histogram negative, the asset-cap-removal and NII-growth catalysts are not yet enough to offset balance-sheet and earnings-quality concerns.
What could go wrong
- Balance-sheet deterioration. Total debt surged 51% to $425.7B in FY2025 while operating cash flow was -$19.0B, raising questions about capital allocation and earnings quality.
- Revenue decline. FY2025 revenue fell 1.5% to $123.5B, reversing the 8.7% growth seen in FY2024, suggesting core top-line momentum is weakening.
- Valuation overextension. A DCF analysis published August 17, 2026 estimates fair value at $79, roughly 8% below the current $85.95 close, and the stock has already gained 20.5% over three months.
- Technical weakness. MACD histogram is negative at -0.24 with RSI at 46.1, and the stock is pinned at its 50-day MA ($85.96), indicating waning near-term momentum.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · FMP FY2025 annual · 13F smart money composite as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on WFC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All WFC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $16.5B | 0.4% of fund |
| Fmr | $12.6B | 0.5% of fund |
| State Street | $11.2B | 0.3% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $9.5B | 0.5% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $6.3B | 0.9% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $6.1B | 0.3% of fund |
160 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 289 Form 4 filings, net −$15.4M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about WFC
Orin answers questions about WFC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.7× | 11.5× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.2× | 10.0× | — |
| P/S | 1.92× | 1.92× | — |
| P/B | 1.4× | 1.0× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.28σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$99
$92 – $108 · +21% against today's price
- 27 buy or overweight
- 29 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WFCWells Fargo & Company | $248B | 11.7× | 15.2× | 64.5% | 17.5% | 13% |
| BACBank of America Corporation | $397B | 12.7× | 24.1× | 59.3% | 17.2% | 11% |
| CCitigroup Inc. | $226B | 14.0× | 23.1× | 46.6% | 10.2% | 8% |
| JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co. | $904B | 14.5× | 19.7× | 62.6% | 21.9% | 18% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 16.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $116 | $82.68 · +40% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-1 | $82.68 · −101% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.