Xcel Energy Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Xcel Energy remains a hold as the stock has recovered to $73.78 as of 9 Oct with RSI at 54.4, but still trades below both its 50-day ($75.09) and 200-day ($78.05) moving averages and carries a P/S premium of 12.7% versus the peer median despite FY2025 EPS declining 0.58% YoY.
Operating margins improved to 19.6% in FY2025 from 17.8% in FY2024, and the $60B investment plan backed by rising data center demand supports long-term rate-base growth, but free cash flow deteriorated to -$6.83B (FCF margin of -46.5%) on $10.9B of capex while total debt rose to $34.78B. With Q3 2026 earnings due October 29 and smart money conviction fading (score declining from 0.04 as of Q3 2025 to 0.02 as of Q2 2026), the risk-reward is balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Deepening free cash flow deficit. FY2025 FCF of -$6.83B with a -46.5% FCF margin on $10.9B capex represents a sharp deterioration from -$2.72B in FY2024, and the $60B investment plan signals sustained heavy capex ahead.
- Rising leverage. Total debt climbed to $34.78B as of FY2025 from $30.21B in FY2024, with stockholders' equity of $23.61B, elevating balance-sheet risk if rate-case recoveries lag capex deployment.
- Revenue volatility. Q2 2026 revenue fell 5.1% YoY to $3.12B after FY2025 grew 9.1%, raising questions about demand sustainability despite the data-center growth narrative.
- Fading institutional conviction. Smart money score dropped from 0.04 as of Q3 2025 to 0.02 as of Q2 2026 despite fund count rising from 56 to 66, indicating per-fund position reductions.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 9 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on XEL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 3.2% over twelve months, from $80.69 on 27 Oct 2025 to $78.14 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $83.91 on 24 Feb 2026; the last close is 6.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 14.8M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All XEL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.3B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.9B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $2.4B | 0.2% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.4B | 0.3% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $1.3B | 0.4% |
109 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 103 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about XEL
Orin answers questions about XEL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 21.5×); the typical Utilities company on the NASDAQ is at 28.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.3×near usual | 21.5× | 28.1× |
| P/S | 3.34×above usual | 2.72× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.3×above usual | 12.6× | — |
| P/B | 2.0×near usual | 1.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $88.54 (from $77 to $99) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$88.54
$77 – $99 · +13% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $49B | 21.3× | 13.3× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $22B | 24.2× | 13.6× | 77.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
| CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $28B | 24.0× | 12.4× | 53.3% | 11.8% | 10% |
| DTEDTE Energy Company | $28B | 30.9× | 7.4× | 37.2% | 5.5% | 7% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| EDConsolidated Edison, Inc. | $45B | 19.3× | 9.5× | 65.5% | 12.7% | 9% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $52B | 27.4× | 14.5× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| LNTAlliant Energy Corporation | $18B | 22.1× | 14.6× | 42.0% | 18.4% | 11% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $36B | 18.0× | 13.5× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $107B | 21.3× | 12.0× | 49.7% | 16.0% | 13% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $36B | 21.4× | 14.4× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 28.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now28.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $19 a share — 76% below the $77.74 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $19 | 76% below $77.74 |
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.