Xcel Energy Inc. XEL
Xcel Energy earns a hold as Q2 2026 EPS of $0.93 (up 24% from $0.75 a year earlier) and expanding FY2025 operating margins (19.6% vs 17.8% in FY2024) confirm improving earnings power, while valuation is now reasonable with a P/E of 21.6x roughly in line with the peer median of 21.0x and EV/EBITDA of 13.5x below the peer median of 14.2x. However, FY2025 free cash flow deteriorated to -$6.8B with capex of $10.9B, total debt reached $34.8B, and the smart money score fell from 0.078 as of Q1 2026 to 0.020 as of Q2 2026 despite a modest rise in fund count to 63, suggesting institutional conviction is fading even as the stock reclaimed both its 50-day ($79.33) and 200-day ($78.88) moving averages.
The full-year growth narrative still hinges on H2 2026 sustaining the Q2 beat given FY2025 EPS of $3.42 was flat versus $3.44 in FY2024.
What could go wrong
- Capital intensity and debt load. FY2025 free cash flow was -$6.8B with capex of $10.9B, and total debt climbed to $34.8B from $24.7B in FY2021, creating financing-cost pressure that partially offset Q2 2026 earnings strength.
- Smart money outflow signal. Smart money score dropped from 0.0779 as of 2026-03-31 to 0.0196 as of 2026-06-30, the lowest in the available series, even as fund count edged up to 63 from 62.
- Full-year EPS growth unproven. FY2025 EPS of $3.42 was essentially flat versus $3.44 in FY2024 (eps_growth_yoy of -0.6%), so the Q2 2026 beat must be sustained through H2 to validate the growth narrative.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net value was -$9.3M across 97 transactions, with dispositions outweighing acquisitions in dollar terms despite 75 acquisition transactions (mostly grant-based).
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: MarketBeat news, 2026-07-30 · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · peer_relative composite · FMP FY2025 fundamentals. Orin's read on XEL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All XEL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $2.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.4B | 0.3% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
107 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 97 Form 4 filings, net −$9.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about XEL
Orin answers questions about XEL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.0× | 21.5× | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5× | 12.7× | — |
| P/S | 2.97× | 2.72× | — |
| P/B | 1.8× | 1.9× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.53σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$92
$83 – $101 · +34% against today's price
- 17 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $43B | 19.0× | 12.5× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | $64B | 20.2× | 13.6× | 49.0% | 13.9% | 10% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc. | $53B | 20.9× | 14.5× | 49.3% | 13.9% | 9% |
| DTEDTE Energy Company | $25B | 19.0× | 12.4× | 36.7% | 8.1% | 11% |
| EDConsolidated Edison, Inc. | $38B | 16.8× | 9.9× | 76.0% | 12.5% | 9% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $46B | 24.8× | 13.7× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| EXCExelon Corporation | $41B | 14.7× | 10.2× | 24.5% | 11.0% | 10% |
| PCGPG&E Corporation | $33B | 8.9× | 9.2× | 56.2% | 12.3% | 10% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $33B | 16.5× | 13.2× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $33B | 19.4× | 13.6× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 0.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $201 | $78.17 · +157% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $59 | $78.17 · −24% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.