Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM
XOM is riding a geopolitical tailwind from Iran-related oil price strength, with the stock at $165.56 trading well above its 50-day ($148.07) and 200-day ($141.79) moving averages and RSI at 71.3 signaling overbought conditions as of 2026-08-18. However, the multi-year fundamental erosion persists—EPS fell from $13.26 in FY2022 to $6.70 in FY2025, FCF margin compressed from 14.65% to 7.29%, and capex surged to $28.4B—and XOM trades at a 27.2% EV/EBITDA premium and 8.9% P/E premium to Chevron.
Smart money turned negative (score -0.27 as of Q2 2026, down from +0.58 in Q1 2026) and insiders are net sellers (-$15.3M over 24 months), suggesting the rally is overextended relative to underlying fundamentals. Hold pending evidence that post-conflict earnings stabilize or the valuation premium narrows.
What could go wrong
- Geopolitical reversal. Iran ceasefire or Strait of Hormuz normalization could reverse the oil price tailwind currently supporting shares at overbought RSI of 71.3.
- Valuation premium vs peer. XOM trades at 10.0x EV/EBITDA vs CVX at 7.86x (27.2% premium) and 21.4x P/E vs CVX 19.65x, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Capex burden on FCF. Capex rose to $28.4B in FY2025 from $18.4B in FY2022, compressing FCF from $58.4B to $23.6B; the $1.1B Mozambique LNG contract award signals continued heavy spending.
- Smart money outflow. Smart money score deteriorated to -0.27 as of Q2 2026 from +0.58 in Q1 2026, with 69 funds tracked, indicating institutional positioning has turned cautious.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · derived_metrics · FMP annual fundamentals · technicals as of 2026-08-18. Orin's read on XOM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All XOM filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G | 7 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 3 Aug | ExxonMobil reported net income attributable to ExxonMobil of $14.525 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, a 104.7% increase from $7.082 billion in the prior year period. | read |
| 8-K | 1 Jul | ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation became the publicly traded entity on July 1, 2026, following a redomiciliation merger. | read |
| 8-K | 29 May | Exxon Mobil Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 27, 2026, with 87.8% of outstanding shares voting. | read |
| DEFA14A | 15 May | — | on file |
| DEFA14A | 12 May | — | on file |
| DEFA14A | 12 May | — | on file |
| DEFA14A | 8 May | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $37.0B | 0.8% of fund |
| State Street | $28.3B | 0.8% of fund |
| Fmr | $18.8B | 0.8% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $16.0B | 0.7% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $13.4B | 0.7% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $10.0B | 0.5% of fund |
173 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 58 Form 4 filings, net −$15.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about XOM
Orin answers questions about XOM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.8× | 11.4× | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.7× | 5.7× | — |
| P/S | 1.85× | 1.21× | — |
| P/B | 2.6× | 2.0× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.53σ from its own mean).
12.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $23.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$173
$153 – $185 · +8% against today's price
- 22 buy or overweight
- 29 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOMExxon Mobil Corporation | $668B | 20.8× | 9.7× | 25.1% | 9.1% | 13% |
| CVXChevron Corporation | $409B | 19.6× | 7.9× | 31.0% | 9.9% | 11% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 5.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $125 | $152.36 · −18% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $129 | $152.36 · −16% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.