Exxon Mobil Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
XOM's Q2 2026 inflection—revenue up 44.1% YoY to $114.5B and EPS of $3.48 versus $1.64 a year earlier—suggests the earnings decline that compressed FY2025 EPS to $6.70 and FCF margin to 7.3% has bottomed.
However, the stock has rallied to $178.98 with RSI at 73.0 (overbought) and now trades at a 25.7% EV/EBITDA premium to Chevron and a 7.2% P/E premium, which looks rich given mixed Q3 2026 preliminary signals: refining margins add $4.5B but upstream faces oil-price headwinds, and Reuters reports the company signaled lower Q3 earnings. With insiders net sellers (-$2.63M over 24 months) and smart money slightly negative (-0.00 as of Q2 2026), hold until Q3 results on October 30 clarify whether the recovery is sustained.
What could go wrong
- Overbought technicals. RSI at 73.0 as of 16 Oct with price $178.98 well above MA50 of $163.69 and MA200 of $151.72; a pullback could materialize if Q3 results disappoint.
- Valuation premium. XOM trades at 23.03x P/E and 10.69x EV/EBITDA versus CVX at 21.49x and 8.50x respectively—a 7.2% P/E premium and 25.7% EV/EBITDA premium that leaves little room for error.
- Mixed Q3 signals. Preliminary Q3 2026 guidance shows a $4.5B refining-margin boost offset by upstream oil-price headwinds; Reuters reports the company signaled lower Q3 earnings.
- Negative insider and smart-money flows. Insiders net sold $2.63M over 24 months with zero acquisitions; smart money score is -0.00 as of Q2 2026, down from +0.03 in Q4 2025.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · FY25 fundamentals · technicals · peer comparison. Orin's read on XOM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 55.1% over twelve months, from $115.94 on 27 Oct 2025 to $179.88 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $184.54 on 26 Oct 2026; the last close is 2.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 53.9M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All XOM filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G | 7 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 3 Aug | ExxonMobil reported net income attributable to ExxonMobil of $14.525 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, a 104.7% increase from $7.082 billion in the prior year period. | read |
| 8-K | 1 Jul | ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation became the publicly traded entity on July 1, 2026, following a redomiciliation merger. | read |
| 8-K | 29 May | Exxon Mobil Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 27, 2026, with 87.8% of outstanding shares voting. | read |
| DEFA14A | 15 May | — | on file |
| DEFA14A | 12 May | — | on file |
| DEFA14A | 12 May | — | on file |
| DEFA14A | 8 May | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $45.8B | 0.7% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $37.0B | 0.8% |
| State Street | $28.3B | 0.8% |
| FMR | $18.8B | 0.8% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $16.0B | 0.7% |
| Geode Capital Management | $13.4B | 0.7% |
| Morgan Stanley | $10.0B | 0.5% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $8.8B | 0.5% |
| Bank of America | $8.6B | 0.6% |
| Norges Bank | $8.3B | 0.8% |
176 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 58 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about XOM
Orin answers questions about XOM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 23.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 11.4×); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.2×above usual | 11.4× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 2.05×above usual | 1.21× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.7×above usual | 5.7× | — |
| P/B | 2.9×above usual | 2.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $171 (from $90 to $199) — 5% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$171
$90 – $199 · −5% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 23.2× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (CVX 21.8×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOMExxon Mobil Corporation | $740B | 23.2× | 10.7× | 25.1% | 9.1% | 13% |
| CVXChevron Corporation | $451B | 21.8× | 8.6× | 31.0% | 9.9% | 11% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 23.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now23.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $115 a share — 36% below the $181.01 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $115 | 36% below $181.01 |
| Levered | $120 | 34% below $181.01 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.